期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-2016number2_25页_2mb

NBER Environmental and Energy Economics Program Summary

Core Content

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Environmental and Energy Economics (EEE) program, established in 2007, focuses on the economic implications of environmental and energy policies, particularly in the context of climate change. The program brings together economists from diverse fields, including trade, productivity, public economics, and industrial organization, to analyze how energy markets influence local pollution, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and broader environmental outcomes.

Main Research Topics

1. Consequences of Reducing GHG Emissions

• Researchers have studied the economic impacts of rising temperatures on various sectors, including agriculture, conflict, mortality, birth rates, income, test scores, and human capital formation.
• Early studies found mixed results on the impact of temperature on U.S. agriculture: some found minimal effects, while others identified large negative impacts.
• A methodological debate emerged around the use of cross-sectional versus panel data to measure climate impacts.
• Research has also explored how people value temperature through housing decisions and migration patterns, showing that individuals are willing to pay to avoid climate-related temperature changes, though there is significant variation across groups.

2. Policies Affecting GHG Emissions

• The EEE program has analyzed various policy instruments, including command-and-control mandates, cap-and-trade permits, and pollution taxes.
• Market-based instruments are often suggested as cost-minimizing, but some studies argue that standards can be more efficient in certain contexts.
• Energy efficiency standards, voluntary conservation, and subsidies are more commonly used in practice, despite their limitations.
• Research has also examined the role of R&D and technology policy, including geoengineering as a potential solution to climate change.
• International environmental agreements and the risk of unilateral policies encouraging higher emissions have been explored.
• Adaptation policies are an emerging area, with studies examining how cities can respond to climate change through infrastructure and behavioral nudges.

3. GHG Reductions in the Electricity Sector

• The electricity sector is a major contributor to GHG emissions, with fossil fuels accounting for 75% of total emissions.
• Natural gas prices have dropped significantly since 2005, leading to a shift from coal to gas in electricity generation.
• This shift has implications for understanding the impact of CO₂ taxes.
• Solar photovoltaic prices have also fallen, prompting debates on the relative value of rooftop versus grid-scale solar.
• Some U.S. states have implemented cap-and-trade programs for the electricity sector.
• The Clean Power Plan, which allows states flexibility in meeting emissions standards, may lead to inefficiencies if states adopt different standards.

4. GHG Reductions in the Transportation Sector

• U.S. federal gasoline taxes have remained at 18.4 cents per gallon since 1993, with state and local taxes adding 30.4 cents.
• Consumers tend to prefer price controls, rationing, and vehicle efficiency standards over taxes.
• Studies suggest that dirtier vehicles respond more to fuel price changes, which may affect the optimal fuel tax design.
• CAFE standards have delayed the scrapping of older, less efficient vehicles, reducing expected fuel savings.
• Biofuel and fuel subsidies have been found to have unintended consequences, including increased social costs and externalities.
• Subsidies for electric vehicles may reduce local emissions but increase emissions from power plants.

Key Findings

• Energy Efficiency Gap: There is a discrepancy between the private benefits of energy efficiency investments and actual consumer behavior, attributed to rational inattention, heterogeneous discount rates, and behavioral biases.
• Rebound Effect: Some studies suggest that energy efficiency investments may lead to increased energy consumption, but evidence of this is limited.
• Policy Effectiveness: Energy efficiency standards and subsidies are more widely used, though their effectiveness is debated.
• Climate Adaptation: Research highlights the importance of adaptation strategies, such as urban planning and behavioral nudges, to mitigate the effects of climate change.
• Local Pollution and GHG: Many local pollutants are co-produced with GHGs, so policies targeting GHG reduction often have co-benefits for local environmental quality.
• Developing Countries: Air pollution levels are higher in developing countries, and avoidance behaviors (e.g., purchasing masks) are more common among the wealthy.
• Institutional Weakness: Weak institutions in developing countries can hinder the implementation of effective environmental and energy policies.

Additional Research Areas

• Oil and Gas Production: Studies show that drilling responds to price shocks, but production from existing wells is less sensitive.
• Energy Infrastructure in Developing Economies: Rapidly growing economies are developing energy infrastructure, leading to new patterns of energy use and demand.
• Subsidies in Developing Nations: Research has examined the impact of developed-world subsidies on energy and environmental projects in developing countries.
• Gender and Energy Use: Gender dynamics in developing countries may affect demand for energy-efficient technologies, such as improved cookstoves.

Funding and Structure

• The NBER is a private, nonprofit organization funded by individuals, corporations, and private foundations.
• It has a structured board of directors, including both university-appointed and organization-appointed directors, ensuring a broad range of expertise.
• The EEE program is part of a larger network of research programs, each focusing on specific economic issues.

Conclusion

The EEE program has significantly advanced understanding of the economic effects of climate change and the effectiveness of various policy instruments. It emphasizes the interplay between energy markets, environmental outcomes, and the broader economic implications of GHG reduction strategies, while also highlighting the challenges of implementation in different regions and the need for more nuanced policy design.