20240507-中邮证券-唐人神-002567.SZ-出栏持续高增_成本下降空间大_4页_414kb

报告摘要

[English Translation - English Summary]

Market Risks, Invest Cautiously; Read Disclaimer After Main Text

A securities research report on agriculture, forestry, livestock, and fisheries company点评 (comment review) released on May 7, 2024. Investment ratings are maintained as "Buy."

Key points:

Financial Data:
- Company details: Last closing price was 594 yuan, total shares outstanding/circulating: 14.33 billion / 14.11 billion, market capitalization/circulating: 85 billion / 84 billion. 52-week high/low: 760/529. Debt-to-asset ratio: 64.8%. PE (Price-to-Earnings): various due to net losses, with current P/E at -544.
- 2023 Financials: Revenue increased by 155% to 2,694.9 billion yuan; Net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 12,287.6% to -15.26 billion yuan. 2024 Q1 Revenue decreased about 25.19% to 488 billion yuan; Net loss narrowed by 4,194% to -1,980 million yuan. Head loss per pig in Q1 2024 was significantly lower than in 2023.
Business Highlights:
- Livestock: High growth in pig output, declining costs. In 2023, pig output reached 371.26 million heads (+7,205% YOY); Q1 2024 output was 94.7 million heads (+20.78% QoQ). Quarterly cost reductions achieved. However, with prices remaining low, significant losses still persist. For 2023 A & Q1 2024, average pig losses were about 410 yuan and 210 yuan per head, respectively.
- Feed Business: Sales increased by 148.7% to 70,000 thousand tonnes, moving towards high-margin products. Profit margins increased by 0.5 p.p., contributing about 2.8 billion yuan profit in 2023.
Outlook & Ratings:
- Target: Output between 450-500 million pigs in 2024, long-term goal of 1 billion/year. Cost reduction through improved genetics ("Danma system") and higher farm capacity utilization.
- EPS forecast for 2024-2026: 0.20, 0.76, 0.58 RMB/share. Maintain "Buy" rating based on expected cyclical recovery and performance improvement, especially P/E decreasing to 36-51x from 545x.
- Risk: Failing to meet output targets or unmet market demand.