> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # 债市震荡，谨慎交易 分析师 浙商固收 杜渐 dujian@stocke.com.cn S1230523120005 2025年12月11日 # 目录 # CONTENTS 周观点：债市震荡，谨慎交易 静态票息与综合策略 技术面择时信号 基本面数据跟踪 各典型策略：收益率测算 信用债板块与择券观察 信用债市场热度&机构交易 超长期信用债品种观察 地产市场观察 其他数据跟踪 # 票息周观点：债市震荡，谨慎交易 过去一周总结：本周重要会议相继落地，债市呈现小幅修复，信用债表现好于利率债。分品种来看，10年国债活跃券收益率下行1.4bp，3-5年二永债收益率下行5bp左右，1-5年城投债收益率变化-3至1bp。本周央行投放力度温和，DR007围绕 $1.5\%$ 上下震荡。 ■ 市场交易逻辑：1、重要会议相继落地；2、美联储降息 核心观点： > 本周重要会议靴子落地，并未释放超预期信号，债市随之转向修复行情。展望后市，当前市场缺乏清晰的交易主线，实质性利空因素亦未显现，建议投资者保持现有仓位，以静制动。 > 重要会议确认政策基调不变，债市方向反转可能性不大，可维持现有仓位，保持策略定力。从政治局会议与中央经济工作会议的表述来看，预计政策发力整体保持克制，但货币政策的表述偏积极，对近期市场情绪形成一定支撑，这与我们上周周报“12月政治局会议过后债市收益率往往重回下行”的观点一致。然而，当前市场仍缺乏明确的趋势性主线，短期内预计延续震荡格局。我们建议投资者保持中性久期，以小幅看多的态度参与市场，适当减少交易频率。 > 后市策略：目前债市波段操作难度较大，票息配置策略的确定性更高。我们建议关注3年左右大行二永债，信用利差处于历史近60%分位数，距离止盈点位仍有25-40bp，扛跌空间大，赔率高。此外也可关注板块轮动下的投资机会，本周二永债收益率快速下行，可关注后续3年以内高等级城投债补涨空间。 分类投资建议： 1、低风险偏好：①3-5年国开债存在凸点，具备一定骑乘收益；②3Y地方债与国债利差有15bp，处于2024年以来约52%分位数。 2、中等风险偏好：①关注3-5年高等级二永债，期限利差处历史极高位，博弈后续收窄空间；关注渤海银行4Y二级资本债机会，骑乘收益较可观；②微瑕疵策略下，鄂联投、河钢集团2Y债券综合收益具有吸引力；津城建收益率曲线3~4年区间段较为陡峭，骑乘收益较高； 3、高风险偏好：①7年高等级二级资本债，有44bp止盈空间；②超长信用债收益率仍处年内较高点，配置型机构可择机配置流动性相对较好的10Y个券。③当前弱资质信用债距离止盈点位较近，赔率不足，同时其估值易受到万科事件的政策风向影响而出现波动，对于信用下沉策略需保持谨慎。 > 风险提示：财政货币政策或外部扰动超预期；样本数据无法代表整体；历史收益数据不代表未来。 # 市场交易逻辑 # ■ 本周市场交易逻辑：1、重要会议相继落地；2、美联储降息 # 债市多空影响因素概览 长期年度视角） # 近期债市关注因素 # 1、资金面 资金面：本周央行通过公开市场操作净回笼1158亿元，DR007围绕 $1.5\%$ 上下震荡。下周逆回购到期5240亿元。央行操作动向：央行11月国债买卖净投放500亿元。 # 2、关税调整 关税谈判及预期：中美贸易战暂停1年，为中美经贸关系的稳定注入强心剂。 # 3、基本面与政策博弈 经济数据：12月8日公布了进出口数据，12月10日公布了CPI和PPI数据。 货币政策：央行11月国债买卖净投放500亿元。 财政政策节奏：本周政府债发行1070亿元，净融资额为791亿元。 基金费率新规：基金赎回费率新规或将延迟落地，关注具体落地时间。 # 4、机构行为 配置力量：本周基金、理财、保险和其他产品对信用债保持净买入，银行和券商表现为净卖出。 # 5、海外因素 美联储政策取向：美联储12月降息25bp。 # 静态票息与综合策略 各券种广谱利率图 <table><tr><td rowspan="2">日期</td><td colspan="3">政策利率</td><td colspan="3">定期存款</td><td colspan="2">回购利率</td><td colspan="6">国债</td><td colspan="2">美债</td><td colspan="2">存单</td><td colspan="4">商业银行二级资本债</td><td colspan="4">商业银行永续债(含权)</td><td colspan="4">城投债</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>OMO7D</td><td>MLF1Y</td><td>LPR5Y</td><td>1Y</td><td>3Y</td><td>5Y</td><td>DR007</td><td>R007</td><td>1Y</td><td>3Y</td><td>5Y</td><td>7Y</td><td>10Y</td><td>30Y</td><td>1Y</td><td>10Y</td><td>AAA1Y</td><td>AA-1Y</td><td>AAA-1Y</td><td>3Y</td><td>5Y</td><td>7Y</td><td>1Y</td><td>3Y</td><td>5Y</td><td>1Y</td><td>3Y</td><td>5Y</td><td>1Y</td><td>AA-3Y</td><td>5Y</td><td>1Y</td><td>3Y</td><td>5Y</td><td>1Y</td><td>AA-3Y</td><td>5Y</td></tr><tr><td>2023/12/29</td><td rowspan="3">1.8</td><td rowspan="3">2.5</td><td rowspan="3">4.2</td><td rowspan="3">1.45</td><td rowspan="3">1.95</td><td rowspan="3">2.00</td><td>2.02</td><td>3.07</td><td>2.08</td><td>2.29</td><td>2.40</td><td>2.53</td><td>2.56</td><td>2.83</td><td>4.79</td><td>3.88</td><td>2.40</td><td>2.91</td><td>2.65</td><td>2.85</td><td>3.00</td><td>3.10</td><td>2.75</td><td>2.94</td><td>3.05</td><td>2.80</td><td>3.03</td><td>3.26</td><td>3.14</td><td>4.81</td><td>5.94</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2024/3/29</td><td>2.01</td><td>2.34</td><td>1.72</td><td>2.03</td><td>2.20</td><td>2.32</td><td>2.29</td><td>2.46</td><td>5.03</td><td>4.20</td><td>2.23</td><td>2.49</td><td>2.35</td><td>2.52</td><td>2.62</td><td>2.66</td><td>2.40</td><td>2.58</td><td>2.51</td><td>2.35</td><td>2.58</td><td>2.67</td><td>2.71</td><td>3.40</td><td>4.31</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2024/6/28</td><td>2.17</td><td>2.23</td><td>1.54</td><td>1.80</td><td>1.98</td><td>2.10</td><td>2.21</td><td>2.43</td><td>5.09</td><td>4.36</td><td>1.96</td><td>2.27</td><td>2.01</td><td>2.13</td><td>2.23</td><td>2.30</td><td>2.01</td><td>2.16</td><td>2.16</td><td>2.03</td><td>2.19</td><td>2.28</td><td>2.26</td><td>2.61</td><td>3.24</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2024/7/31</td><td rowspan="32">1.7</td><td rowspan="32">2.3</td><td rowspan="32">3.95</td><td rowspan="32">1.35</td><td rowspan="32">1.75</td><td rowspan="32">1.80</td><td>1.80</td><td>1.93</td><td>1.42</td><td>1.71</td><td>1.85</td><td>1.99</td><td>2.15</td><td>2.38</td><td>4.73</td><td>4.09</td><td>1.88</td><td>2.12</td><td>1.92</td><td>2.02</td><td>2.15</td><td>2.19</td><td>1.92</td><td>2.04</td><td>2.06</td><td>1.94</td><td>2.06</td><td>2.13</td><td>2.13</td><td>2.41</td><td>2.84</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2024/8/5</td><td>1.69</td><td>1.89</td><td>1.39</td><td>1.67</td><td>1.81</td><td>1.97</td><td>2.14</td><td>2.34</td><td>4.34</td><td>3.78</td><td>1.84</td><td>2.10</td><td>1.87</td><td>1.98</td><td>2.09</td><td>2.15</td><td>1.88</td><td>2.00</td><td>2.01</td><td>1.91</td><td>2.01</td><td>2.08</td><td>2.10</td><td>2.35</td><td>2.75</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2024/8/30</td><td>1.70</td><td>1.91</td><td>1.49</td><td>1.67</td><td>1.85</td><td>2.08</td><td>2.17</td><td>2.37</td><td>4.38</td><td>3.91</td><td>1.97</td><td>2.26</td><td>2.05</td><td>2.17</td><td>2.26</td><td>2.38</td><td>2.06</td><td>2.20</td><td>2.17</td><td>2.08</td><td>2.19</td><td>2.28</td><td>2.40</td><td>2.60</td><td>2.94</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2024/9/24</td><td>1.87</td><td>1.96</td><td>1.42</td><td>1.52</td><td>1.75</td><td>1.94</td><td>2.07</td><td>2.19</td><td>3.88</td><td>3.74</td><td>1.91</td><td>2.21</td><td>2.01</td><td>2.09</td><td>2.18</td><td>2.26</td><td>2.05</td><td>2.14</td><td>2.10</td><td>2.05</td><td>2.14</td><td>2.20</td><td>2.39</td><td>2.72</td><td>3.17</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2024/9/30</td><td>1.56</td><td>1.98</td><td>1.37</td><td>1.56</td><td>1.84</td><td>2.07</td><td>2.15</td><td>2.36</td><td>3.98</td><td>3.81</td><td>1.91</td><td>2.25</td><td>2.21</td><td>2.33</td><td>2.43</td><td>2.49</td><td>2.25</td><td>2.38</td><td>2.25</td><td>2.18</td><td>2.32</td><td>2.38</td><td>2.61</td><td>2.96</td><td>3.38</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2024/10/31</td><td>1.70</td><td>1.89</td><td>1.43</td><td>1.58</td><td>1.79</td><td>2.03</td><td>2.15</td><td>2.34</td><td>4.27</td><td>4.28</td><td>1.93</td><td>2.27</td><td>2.09</td><td>2.26</td><td>2.37</td><td>2.49</td><td>2.13</td><td>2.33</td><td>2.45</td><td>2.11</td><td>2.30</td><td>2.44</td><td>2.77</td><td>3.01</td><td>3.74</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2024/11/18</td><td>1.72</td><td>1.83</td><td>1.37</td><td>1.48</td><td>1.72</td><td>1.96</td><td>2.11</td><td>2.32</td><td>4.33</td><td>4.42</td><td>1.87</td><td>2.24</td><td>2.00</td><td>2.17</td><td>2.33</td><td>2.43</td><td>2.03</td><td>2.22</td><td>2.39</td><td>2.00</td><td>2.16</td><td>2.30</td><td>2.50</td><td>3.02</td><td>3.77</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2024/11/29</td><td>1.64</td><td>1.82</td><td>1.37</td><td>1.41</td><td>1.66</td><td>1.88</td><td>2.02</td><td>2.20</td><td>4.30</td><td>4.18</td><td>1.80</td><td>1.99</td><td>1.95</td><td>2.08</td><td>2.19</td><td>2.30</td><td>1.97</td><td>2.13</td><td>2.24</td><td>1.98</td><td>2.05</td><td>2.23</td><td>2.35</td><td>2.81</td><td>3.67</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2025/1/2</td><td>1.67</td><td>1.83</td><td>1.07</td><td>1.17</td><td>1.40</td><td>1.53</td><td>1.61</td><td>1.84</td><td>4.17</td><td>4.57</td><td>1.57</td><td>1.98</td><td>1.64</td><td>1.71</td><td>1.78</td><td>1.93</td><td>1.69</td><td>1.76</td><td>1.84</td><td>1.68</td><td>1.78</td><td>1.88</td><td>2.16</td><td>2.42</td><td>3.27</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2025/1/24</td><td>2.10</td><td>2.90</td><td>1.34</td><td>1.34</td><td>1.47</td><td>1.59</td><td>1.66</td><td>1.89</td><td>4.17</td><td>4.63</td><td>1.74</td><td>2.07</td><td>1.84</td><td>1.85</td><td>1.88</td><td>1.88</td><td>1.86</td><td>1.90</td><td>1.93</td><td>1.87</td><td>1.88</td><td>1.95</td><td>2.33</td><td>2.45</td><td>3.17</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2025/2/7</td><td>1.93</td><td>2.22</td><td>1.22</td><td>1.28</td><td>1.39</td><td>1.52</td><td>1.60</td><td>1.80</td><td>4.25</td><td>4.49</td><td>1.67</td><td>2.01</td><td>1.72</td><td>1.75</td><td>1.79</td><td>1.79</td><td>1.76</td><td>1.80</td><td>1.85</td><td>1.80</td><td>1.82</td><td>1.89</td><td>2.24</td><td>2.40</td><td>3.11</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2025/2/28</td><td>2.13</td><td>2.14</td><td>1.46</td><td>1.52</td><td>1.60</td><td>1.69</td><td>1.72</td><td>1.91</td><td>4.08</td><td>4.24</td><td>1.99</td><td>2.32</td><td>2.08</td><td>2.06</td><td>2.08</td><td>2.19</td><td>2.10</td><td>2.12</td><td>2.17</td><td>2.04</td><td>2.09</td><td>2.16</td><td>2.48</td><td>2.60</td><td>3.15</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2025/3/7</td><td>1.81</td><td>1.81</td><td>1.55</td><td>1.59</td><td>1.67</td><td>1.78</td><td>1.80</td><td>1.98</td><td>4.05</td><td>4.32</td><td>2.03</td><td>2.33</td><td>2.10</td><td>2.14</td><td>2.19</td><td>2.32</td><td>2.12</td><td>2.20</td><td>2.27</td><td>2.07</td><td>2.13</td><td>2.20</td><td>2.49</td><td>2.68</td><td>3.20</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2025/3/14</td><td>1.81</td><td>1.83</td><td>1.56</td><td>1.62</td><td>1.64</td><td>1.77</td><td>1.83</td><td>2.04</td><td>4.09</td><td>4.31</td><td>1.96</td><td>2.25</td><td>2.04</td><td>2.12</td><td>2.19</td><td>2.33</td><td>2.08</td><td>2.17</td><td>2.27</td><td>2.05</td><td>2.14</td><td>2.25</td><td>2.46</td><td>2.68</td><td>3.26</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2025/3/17</td><td>1.90</td><td>1.92</td><td>1.59</td><td>1.69</td><td>1.71</td><td>1.86</td><td>1.90</td><td>2.12</td><td>4.11</td><td>4.31</td><td>1.97</td><td>2.27</td><td>2.05</td><td>2.16</td><td>2.25</td><td>2.36</td><td>2.10</td><td>2.22</td><td>2.34</td><td>2.05</td><td>2.16</td><td>2.29</td><td>2.46</td><td>2.68</td><td>3.28</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2025/3/25</td><td>1.91</td><td>2.20</td><td>1.54</td><td>1.63</td><td>1.68</td><td>1.79</td><td>1.82</td><td>2.03</td><td>4.09</td><td>4.31</td><td>1.90</td><td>2.19</td><td>1.98</td><td>2.04</td><td>2.10</td><td>2.25</td><td>2.00</td><td>2.07</td><td>2.18</td><td>1.97</td><td>2.04</td><td>2.16</td><td>2.33</td><td>2.59</td><td>3.22</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2025/4/3</td><td>1.70</td><td>1.74</td><td>1.48</td><td>1.53</td><td>1.56</td><td>1.65</td><td>1.72</td><td>1.91</td><td>3.92</td><td>4.06</td><td>1.80</td><td>2.09</td><td>1.86</td><td>1.93</td><td>1.99</td><td>2.14</td><td>1.88</td><td>1.98</td><td>2.05</td><td>1.89</td><td>1.97</td><td>2.03</td><td>2.10</td><td>2.45</td><td>3.12</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2025/4/30</td><td>1.80</td><td>1.84</td><td>1.46</td><td>1.48</td><td>1.52</td><td>1.58</td><td>1.62</td><td>1.82</td><td>3.85</td><td>4.17</td><td>1.74</td><td>1.99</td><td>1.79</td><td>1.88</td><td>1.95</td><td>2.09</td><td>1.80</td><td>1.94</td><td>2.01</td><td>1.83</td><td>1.93</td><td>2.03</td><td>2.10</td><td>2.45</td><td>3.06</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2025/5/9</td><td>1.54</td><td>1.58</td><td>1.42</td><td>1.46</td><td>1.50</td><td>1.57</td><td>1.64</td><td>1.84</td><td>4.05</td><td>4.37</td><td>1.66</td><td>1.94</td><td>1.71</td><td>1.82</td><td>1.94</td><td>2.06</td><td>1.71</td><td>1.84</td><td>1.97</td><td>1.77</td><td>1.86</td><td>2.00</td><td>2.05</td><td>2.45</td><td>3.03</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2025/5/16</td><td>1.64</td><td>1.63</td><td>1.45</td><td>1.51</td><td>1.58</td><td>1.63</td><td>1.68</td><td>1.88</td><td>4.13</td><td>4.43</td><td>1.68</td><td>1.96</td><td>1.74</td><td>1.84</td><td>1.98</td><td>2.11</td><td>1.74</td><td>1.90</td><td>2.02</td><td>1.72</td><td>1.86</td><td>2.00</td><td>2.04</td><td>2.44</td><td>3.04</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2025/5/20</td><td>1.59</td><td>1.60</td><td>1.45</td><td>1.50</td><td>1.57</td><td>1.62</td><td>1.70</td><td>1.87</td><td>4.12</td><td>4.48</td><td>1.68</td><td>1.94</td><td>1.73</td><td>1.83</td><td>1.95</td><td>2.10</td><td>1.74</td><td>1.87</td><td>1.99</td><td>1.70</td><td>1.84</td><td>1.97</td><td>1.98</td><td>2.42</td><td>3.03</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2025/5/30</td><td>1.66</td><td>1.74</td><td>1.46</td><td>1.48</td><td>1.56</td><td>1.63</td><td>1.67</td><td>1.90</td><td>4.11</td><td>4.41</td><td>1.71</td><td>1.95</td><td>1.77</td><td>1.87</td><td>1.96</td><td>2.10</td><td>1.77</td><td>1.90</td><td>2.02</td><td>1.74</td><td>1.84</td><td>1.96</td><td>2.02</td><td>2.44</td><td>2.79</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2025/6/27</td><td>1.70</td><td>1.92</td><td>1.35</td><td>1.39</td><td>1.51</td><td>1.60</td><td>1.65</td><td>1.85</td><td>3.97</td><td>4.29</td><td>1.64</td><td>1.88</td><td>1.74</td><td>1.84</td><td>1.91</td><td>2.02</td><td>1.74</td><td>1.86</td><td>1.96</td><td>1.73</td><td>1.85</td><td>1.91</td><td>1.95</td><td>2.26</td><td>2.81</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2025/7/4</td><td>1.56</td><td>1.61</td><td>1.41</td><td>1.48</td><td>1.61</td><td>1.71</td><td>1.75</td><td>2.00</td><td>4.07</td><td>4.34</td><td>1.68</td><td>1.92</td><td>1.74</td><td>1.92</td><td>2.02</td><td>1.74</td><td>1.96</td><td>2.08</td><td>1.73</td><td>1.90</td><td>2.00</td><td>1.96</td><td>2.33</td><td>2.84</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2025/8/29</td><td>1.52</td><td>1.52</td><td>1.37</td><td>1.48</td><td>1.63</td><td>1.73</td><td>1.78</td><td>2.02</td><td>3.83</td><td>4.23</td><td>1.66</td><td>1.92</td><td>1.71</td><td>1.94</td><td>2.07</td><td>2.23</td><td>1.73</td><td>1.96</td><td>2.18</td><td>1.72</td><td>1.94</td><td>2.07</td><td>1.95</td><td>2.43</td><td>2.92</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2025/9/10</td><td>1.48</td><td>1.50</td><td>1.42</td><td>1.50</td><td>1.65</td><td>1.78</td><td>1.82</td><td>2.09</td><td>3.66</td><td>4.04</td><td>1.68</td><td>1.92</td><td>1.75</td><td>2.02</td><td>2.16</td><td>2.33</td><td>1.76</td><td>2.04</td><td>2.30</td><td>1.71</td><td>1.98</td><td>2.05</td><td>1.99</td><td>2.43</td><td>2.92</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2025/9/26</td><td>1.53</td><td>1.55</td><td>1.38</td><td>1.54</td><td>1.62</td><td>1.80</td><td>1.80</td><td>2.12</td><td>3.68</td><td>4.18</td><td>1.69</td><td>1.94</td><td>1.80</td><td>2.11</td><td>2.31</td><td>2.52</td><td>1.82</td><td>2.17</td><td>2.41</td><td>1.77</td><td>2.07</td><td>2.20</td><td>2.04</td><td>2.59</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2025/10/31</td><td>1.50</td><td>1.59</td><td>1.38</td><td>1.41</td><td>1.56</td><td>1.68</td><td>1.74</td><td>2.15</td><td>3.70</td><td>4.08</td><td>1.64</td><td>1.89</td><td>1.68</td><td>1.92</td><td>2.16</td><td>2.35</td><td>1.70</td><td>1.97</td><td>2.19</td><td>1.69</td><td>1.89</td><td>2.05</td><td>1.86</td><td>2.44</td><td>2.85</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2025/11/21</td><td>1.44</td><td>1.50</td><td>1.40</td><td>1.43</td><td>1.59</td><td>1.71</td><td>1.76</td><td>2.16</td><td>3.62</td><td>4.06</td><td>1.64</td><td>1.89</td><td>1.70</td><td>1.93</td><td>2.17</td><td>2.34</td><td>1.70</td><td>1.98</td><td>2.24</td><td>1.69</td><td>1.89</td><td>2.00</td><td>1.84</td><td>2.40</td><td>2.78</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2025/11/28</td><td>1.47</td><td>1.52</td><td>1.40</td><td>1.44</td><td>1.62</td><td>1.74</td><td>1.78</td><td>2.18</td><td>3.61</td><td>4.02</td><td>1.64</td><td>1.91</td><td>1.72</td><td>1.98</td><td>2.20</td><td>2.43</td><td>1.73</td><td>2.04</td><td>2.29</td><td>1.72</td><td>1.94</td><td>2.07</td><td>1.88</td><td>2.46</td><td>2.81</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2025/12/5</td><td>1.44</td><td>1.50</td><td>1.40</td><td>1.42</td><td>1.63</td><td>1.74</td><td>1.80</td><td>2.25</td><td>3.61</td><td>4.14</td><td>1.66</td><td>1.90</td><td>1.75</td><td>2.06</td><td>2.25</td><td>2.49</td><td>1.77</td><td>2.11</td><td>2.35</td><td>1.75</td><td>1.97</td><td>2.09</td><td>1.93</td><td>2.51</td><td>2.83</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2025/12/12</td><td>1.47</td><td>1.51</td><td>1.39</td><td>1.42</td><td>1.63</td><td>1.74</td><td>1.81</td><td>2.25</td><td>3.54</td><td>4.19</td><td>1.66</td><td>1.91</td><td>1.75</td><td>2.02</td><td>2.24</td><td>2.44</td><td>1.76</td><td>2.06</td><td>2.29</td><td>1.76</td><td>1.93</td><td>2.09</td><td>1.92</td><td>2.49</td><td>2.86</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2024年初至今修正久期</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr></table> 数据来源：Wind、DM,浙商证券研究所；注：统计时间截至2025年12月12日,使用中债隐含评级,10Y及30Y国债使用活跃券收益率 # 国开&地方债&信用利差情况 <table><tr><td rowspan="2">日期</td><td>政策利率(%)</td><td colspan="6">国开债(%)</td><td colspan="6">地方政府债(%)</td><td colspan="5">AAA+超长债(%)</td><td colspan="3">二级资本债利差</td><td colspan="3">永续债利差</td><td colspan="5">城投债利差</td></tr><tr><td>OMO7D</td><td>1Y</td><td>3Y</td><td>5Y</td><td>7Y</td><td>10Y</td><td>30Y</td><td>1Y</td><td>3Y</td><td>5Y</td><td>7Y</td><td>10Y</td><td>30Y</td><td>10Y</td><td>15Y</td><td>20Y</td><td>30Y</td><td>AAA-3Y</td><td>5Y</td><td>AAA-3Y</td><td>5Y</td><td>AAA3Y</td><td>5Y</td><td>AAA3Y</td><td>5Y</td><td>AA-3Y</td><td>5Y</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2023/12/29</td><td rowspan="3">1.8</td><td>2.20</td><td>2.34</td><td>2.49</td><td>2.49</td><td>2.68</td><td>2.68</td><td>2.29</td><td>2.57</td><td>2.64</td><td>2.64</td><td>2.74</td><td>2.85</td><td>2.97</td><td>3.05</td><td>3.09</td><td>3.15</td><td>30</td><td>45</td><td>51</td><td>52</td><td>56</td><td>60</td><td>39</td><td>43</td><td>44</td><td>94</td><td>246</td><td>346</td></tr><tr><td>2024/3/29</td><td>1.84</td><td>2.17</td><td>2.27</td><td>2.27</td><td>2.44</td><td>2.41</td><td>1.98</td><td>2.21</td><td>2.34</td><td>2.34</td><td>2.50</td><td>2.56</td><td>2.68</td><td>2.74</td><td>2.82</td><td>2.83</td><td>22</td><td>51</td><td>35</td><td>35</td><td>56</td><td>41</td><td>51</td><td>41</td><td>40</td><td>87</td><td>122</td><td>204</td></tr><tr><td>2024/6/28</td><td>1.69</td><td>1.94</td><td>2.03</td><td>2.03</td><td>2.20</td><td>2.29</td><td>1.66</td><td>1.95</td><td>2.15</td><td>2.15</td><td>2.25</td><td>2.36</td><td>2.43</td><td>2.48</td><td>2.53</td><td>2.57</td><td>12</td><td>32</td><td>19</td><td>20</td><td>32</td><td>22</td><td>34</td><td>25</td><td>25</td><td>56</td><td>67</td><td>122</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="2">2024/7/31</td><td rowspan="33">1.7</td><td>1.65</td><td>1.84</td><td>1.90</td><td>1.90</td><td>2.08</td><td>2.22</td><td>1.56</td><td>1.82</td><td>2.01</td><td>2.01</td><td>2.13</td><td>2.27</td><td>2.29</td><td>2.32</td><td>2.38</td><td>2.41</td><td>13</td><td>27</td><td>18</td><td>25</td><td>27</td><td>21</td><td>29</td><td>23</td><td>23</td><td>48</td><td>57</td><td>95</td></tr><tr><td>1.59</td><td>1.80</td><td>1.89</td><td>1.89</td><td>2.05</td><td>2.19</td><td>1.53</td><td>1.81</td><td>1.94</td><td>1.94</td><td>2.10</td><td>2.24</td><td>2.25</td><td>2.28</td><td>2.34</td><td>2.37</td><td>10</td><td>28</td><td>18</td><td>21</td><td>29</td><td>20</td><td>32</td><td>20</td><td>19</td><td>51</td><td>55</td><td>87</td></tr><tr><td>2024/8/30</td><td>1.71</td><td>1.87</td><td>1.97</td><td>1.97</td><td>2.12</td><td>2.26</td><td>1.61</td><td>1.85</td><td>2.01</td><td>2.01</td><td>2.16</td><td>2.27</td><td>2.43</td><td>2.48</td><td>2.52</td><td>2.53</td><td>18</td><td>34</td><td>30</td><td>29</td><td>35</td><td>33</td><td>37</td><td>32</td><td>31</td><td>69</td><td>73</td><td>97</td></tr><tr><td>2024/9/24</td><td>1.66</td><td>1.79</td><td>1.86</td><td>1.86</td><td>2.04</td><td>2.15</td><td>1.59</td><td>1.79</td><td>1.89</td><td>1.89</td><td>2.03</td><td>2.16</td><td>2.31</td><td>2.35</td><td>2.42</td><td>2.45</td><td>21</td><td>35</td><td>30</td><td>32</td><td>38</td><td>34</td><td>38</td><td>34</td><td>34</td><td>72</td><td>93</td><td>131</td></tr><tr><td>2024/9/30</td><td>1.65</td><td>1.88</td><td>1.95</td><td>1.95</td><td>2.16</td><td>2.25</td><td>1.56</td><td>1.80</td><td>1.96</td><td>1.96</td><td>2.20</td><td>2.32</td><td>2.50</td><td>2.53</td><td>2.61</td><td>2.63</td><td>27</td><td>56</td><td>45</td><td>48</td><td>60</td><td>50</td><td>53</td><td>45</td><td>43</td><td>96</td><td>108</td><td>143</td></tr><tr><td>2024/10/31</td><td>1.71</td><td>1.86</td><td>1.88</td><td>1.88</td><td>2.16</td><td>2.22</td><td>1.56</td><td>1.82</td><td>2.02</td><td>2.02</td><td>2.22</td><td>2.32</td><td>2.51</td><td>2.57</td><td>2.60</td><td>2.60</td><td>39</td><td>38</td><td>39</td><td>49</td><td>42</td><td>46</td><td>40</td><td>44</td><td>55</td><td>106</td><td>114</td><td>186</td></tr><tr><td>2024/11/18</td><td>1.65</td><td>1.82</td><td>1.87</td><td>2.11</td><td>2.17</td><td>2.38</td><td>1.54</td><td>1.72</td><td>1.93</td><td>2.14</td><td>2.27</td><td>2.40</td><td>2.38</td><td>2.43</td><td>2.47</td><td>2.50</td><td>35</td><td>35</td><td>47</td><td>38</td><td>40</td><td>53</td><td>35</td><td>34</td><td>43</td><td>85</td><td>120</td><td>191</td></tr><tr><td>2024/11/29</td><td>1.60</td><td>1.73</td><td>1.77</td><td>1.77</td><td>2.01</td><td>2.10</td><td>1.51</td><td>1.66</td><td>1.87</td><td>1.87</td><td>2.04</td><td>2.20</td><td>2.31</td><td>2.34</td><td>2.41</td><td>2.46</td><td>35</td><td>35</td><td>35</td><td>42</td><td>36</td><td>40</td><td>38</td><td>32</td><td>45</td><td>75</td><td>108</td><td>190</td></tr><tr><td>2025/1/2</td><td>1.26</td><td>1.41</td><td>1.44</td><td>1.63</td><td>1.66</td><td>1.95</td><td>1.24</td><td>1.39</td><td>1.58</td><td>1.70</td><td>1.82</td><td>2.11</td><td>2.01</td><td>2.11</td><td>2.15</td><td>2.25</td><td>37</td><td>30</td><td>34</td><td>42</td><td>35</td><td>40</td><td>42</td><td>37</td><td>44</td><td>90</td><td>102</td><td>183</td></tr><tr><td>2025/1/24</td><td>1.48</td><td>1.54</td><td>1.53</td><td>1.69</td><td>1.69</td><td>1.97</td><td>1.37</td><td>1.47</td><td>1.58</td><td>1.73</td><td>1.83</td><td>2.06</td><td>2.01</td><td>2.04</td><td>2.08</td><td>2.19</td><td>35</td><td>30</td><td>35</td><td>38</td><td>35</td><td>40</td><td>39</td><td>34</td><td>42</td><td>85</td><td>91</td><td>164</td></tr><tr><td>2025/2/7</td><td>1.43</td><td>1.47</td><td>1.46</td><td>1.62</td><td>1.60</td><td>1.90</td><td>1.27</td><td>1.38</td><td>1.59</td><td>1.71</td><td>1.78</td><td>2.02</td><td>1.97</td><td>2.01</td><td>2.03</td><td>2.15</td><td>29</td><td>28</td><td>34</td><td>33</td><td>33</td><td>39</td><td>36</td><td>35</td><td>43</td><td>80</td><td>92</td><td>165</td></tr><tr><td>2025/2/28</td><td>1.68</td><td>1.72</td><td>1.72</td><td>1.85</td><td>1.74</td><td>2.04</td><td>1.50</td><td>1.61</td><td>1.76</td><td>1.86</td><td>1.98</td><td>2.18</td><td>2.20</td><td>2.20</td><td>2.21</td><td>2.26</td><td>39</td><td>34</td><td>37</td><td>42</td><td>39</td><td>45</td><td>35</td><td>36</td><td>44</td><td>79</td><td>88</td><td>144</td></tr><tr><td>2025/3/7</td><td>1.68</td><td>1.76</td><td>1.74</td><td>1.92</td><td>1.80</td><td>2.09</td><td>1.60</td><td>1.70</td><td>1.76</td><td>1.90</td><td>2.00</td><td>2.21</td><td>2.27</td><td>2.27</td><td>2.27</td><td>2.30</td><td>42</td><td>38</td><td>45</td><td>44</td><td>44</td><td>53</td><td>38</td><td>37</td><td>46</td><td>80</td><td>92</td><td>146</td></tr><tr><td>2025/3/14</td><td>1.68</td><td>1.71</td><td>1.72</td><td>1.96</td><td>1.85</td><td>2.17</td><td>1.62</td><td>1.76</td><td>1.89</td><td>1.98</td><td>2.08</td><td>2.29</td><td>2.32</td><td>2.32</td><td>2.32</td><td>2.35</td><td>36</td><td>41</td><td>47</td><td>40</td><td>46</td><td>56</td><td>37</td><td>43</td><td>54</td><td>78</td><td>97</td><td>154</td></tr><tr><td>2025/3/17</td><td>1.70</td><td>1.76</td><td>1.77</td><td>2.02</td><td>1.94</td><td>2.24</td><td>1.65</td><td>1.83</td><td>1.94</td><td>2.00</td><td>2.11</td><td>2.30</td><td>2.36</td><td>2.36</td><td>2.36</td><td>2.38</td><td>36</td><td>41</td><td>47</td><td>41</td><td>46</td><td>57</td><td>36</td><td>40</td><td>51</td><td>77</td><td>93</td><td>151</td></tr><tr><td>2025/3/25</td><td>1.64</td><td>1.74</td><td>1.73</td><td>1.93</td><td>1.85</td><td>2.17</td><td>1.65</td><td>1.83</td><td>1.94</td><td>2.00</td><td>2.06</td><td>2.29</td><td>2.26</td><td>2.28</td><td>2.31</td><td>2.35</td><td>34</td><td>30</td><td>36</td><td>36</td><td>33</td><td>45</td><td>32</td><td>30</td><td>43</td><td>68</td><td>85</td><td>148</td></tr><tr><td>2025/4/3</td><td>1.59</td><td>1.67</td><td>1.62</td><td>1.81</td><td>1.74</td><td>2.03</td><td>1.59</td><td>1.69</td><td>1.84</td><td>1.92</td><td>1.97</td><td>2.17</td><td>2.16</td><td>2.16</td><td>2.24</td><td>2.28</td><td>27</td><td>26</td><td>38</td><td>29</td><td>31</td><td>44</td><td>30</td><td>30</td><td>44</td><td>56</td><td>79</td><td>150</td></tr><tr><td>2025/4/30</td><td>1.57</td><td>1.63</td><td>1.58</td><td>1.75</td><td>1.66</td><td>2.00</td><td>1.58</td><td>1.62</td><td>1.66</td><td>1.77</td><td>1.88</td><td>2.09</td><td>2.15</td><td>2.18</td><td>2.20</td><td>2.22</td><td>23</td><td>25</td><td>38</td><td>23</td><td>30</td><td>43</td><td>27</td><td>30</td><td>46</td><td>54</td><td>82</td><td>148</td></tr><tr><td>2025/5/9</td><td>1.47</td><td>1.58</td><td>1.56</td><td>1.72</td><td>1.66</td><td>2.02</td><td>1.54</td><td>1.62</td><td>1.65</td><td>1.73</td><td>1.86</td><td>2.08</td><td>2.13</td><td>2.13</td><td>2.18</td><td>2.19</td><td>214</td><td>24</td><td>38</td><td>24</td><td>26</td><td>41</td><td>29</td><td>28</td><td>44</td><td>58</td><td>86</td><td>147</td></tr><tr><td>2025/5/16</td><td>1.51</td><td>1.61</td><td>1.62</td><td>1.78</td><td>1.71</td><td>2.06</td><td>1.50</td><td>1.58</td><td>1.68</td><td>1.76</td><td>1.90</td><td>2.13</td><td>2.18</td><td>2.18</td><td>2.19</td><td>2.23</td><td>24</td><td>23</td><td>36</td><td>24</td><td>28</td><td>40</td><td>21</td><td>25</td><td>38</td><td>50</td><td>83</td><td>142</td></tr><tr><td>2025/5/20</td><td>1.50</td><td>1.61</td><td>1.62</td><td>1.77</td><td>1.70</td><td>2.05</td><td>1.51</td><td>1.56</td><td>1.67</td><td>1.73</td><td>1.88</td><td>2.12</td><td>2.15</td><td>2.16</td><td>2.17</td><td>2.21</td><td>23</td><td>22</td><td>33</td><td>24</td><td>27</td><td>37</td><td>20</td><td>23</td><td>35</td><td>48</td><td>81</td><td>141</td></tr><tr><td>2025/5/30</td><td>1.53</td><td>1.63</td><td>1.62</td><td>1.78</td><td>1.71</td><td>2.08</td><td>1.51</td><td>1.55</td><td>1.64</td><td>1.77</td><td>1.90</td><td>2.13</td><td>2.13</td><td>2.14</td><td>2.20</td><td>2.21</td><td>24</td><td>24</td><td>34</td><td>24</td><td>27</td><td>39</td><td>21</td><td>21</td><td>34</td><td>48</td><td>70</td><td>130</td></tr><tr><td>2025/6/27</td><td>1.48</td><td>1.58</td><td>1.57</td><td>1.74</td><td>1.68</td><td>2.03</td><td>1.49</td><td>1.57</td><td>1.67</td><td>1.70</td><td>1.80</td><td>2.05</td><td>2.07</td><td>2.07</td><td>2.07</td><td>2.12</td><td>26</td><td>26</td><td>34</td><td>26</td><td>29</td><td>39</td><td>26</td><td>27</td><td>34</td><td>47</td><td>69</td><td>124</td></tr><tr><td>2025/7/4</td><td>1.45</td><td>1.56</td><td>1.56</td><td>1.71</td><td>1.69</td><td>2.03</td><td>1.48</td><td>1.53</td><td>1.61</td><td>1.71</td><td>1.77</td><td>2.02</td><td>2.03</td><td>2.06</td><td>2.06</td><td>2.09</td><td>20</td><td>19</td><td>28</td><td>21</td><td>25</td><td>33</td><td>24</td><td>22</td><td>30</td><td>43</td><td>67</td><td>119</td></tr><tr><td>2025/7/29</td><td>1.52</td><td>1.68</td><td>1.71</td><td>1.84</td><td>1.82</td><td>2.10</td><td>1.46</td><td>1.57</td><td>1.67</td><td>1.75</td><td>1.83</td><td>2.10</td><td>2.18</td><td>2.18</td><td>2.18</td><td>2.20</td><td>22</td><td>24</td><td>31</td><td>24</td><td>28</td><td>37</td><td>21</td><td>22</td><td>29</td><td>45</td><td>66</td><td>112</td></tr><tr><td>2025/8/29</td><td>1.53</td><td>1.69</td><td>1.77</td><td>1.90</td><td>1.88</td><td>2.20</td><td>1.49</td><td>1.58</td><td>1.75</td><td>1.91</td><td>1.96</td><td>2.31</td><td>2.25</td><td>2.26</td><td>2.27</td><td>2.33</td><td>18</td><td>25</td><td>30</td><td>20</td><td>27</td><td>41</td><td>18</td><td>24</td><td>30</td><td>41</td><td>74</td><td>115</td></tr><tr><td>2025/9/10</td><td>1.58</td><td>1.75</td><td>1.84</td><td>1.95</td><td>2.01</td><td>2.28</td><td>1.54</td><td>1.60</td><td>1.85</td><td>1.99</td><td>2.01</td><td>2.33</td><td>2.34</td><td>2.34</td><td>2.36</td><td>2.41</td><td>16</td><td>27</td><td>32</td><td>18</td><td>29</td><td>46</td><td>13</td><td>23</td><td>22</td><td>41</td><td>68</td><td>108</td></tr><tr><td>2025/9/26</td><td>1.62</td><td>1.80</td><td>1.82</td><td>1.97</td><td>2.04</td><td>2.34</td><td>1.49</td><td>1.63</td><td>1.85</td><td>1.99</td><td>2.10</td><td>2.40</td><td>2.44</td><td>2.49</td><td>2.51</td><td>2.55</td><td>18</td><td>31</td><td>49</td><td>20</td><td>37</td><td>60</td><td>14</td><td>27</td><td>39</td><td>42</td><td>79</td><td>116</td></tr><tr><td>2025/10/30</td><td>1.60</td><td>1.72</td><td>1.76</td><td>1.92</td><td>1.96</td><td>2.33</td><td>1.46</td><td>1.59</td><td>1.73</td><td>1.90</td><td>2.00</td><td>2.39</td><td>2.28</td><td>2.38</td><td>2.41</td><td>2.47</td><td>9</td><td>20</td><td>40</td><td>10</td><td>25</td><td>43</td><td>9</td><td>17</td><td>28</td><td>26</td><td>72</td><td>109</td></tr><tr><td>2025/11/20</td><td>1.62</td><td>1.72</td><td>1.77</td><td>1.90</td><td>1.94</td><td>2.30</td><td>1.47</td><td>1.60</td><td>1.71</td><td>1.83</td><td>1.99</td><td>2.35</td><td>2.29</td><td>2.39</td><td>2.42</td><td>2.48</td><td>8</td><td>20</td><td>39</td><td>8</td><td>25</td><td>46</td><td>7</td><td>17</td><td>23</td><td>23</td><td>68</td><td>101</td></tr><tr><td>2025/11/27</td><td>1.63</td><td>1.73</td><td>1.81</td><td>1.94</td><td>2.00</td><td>2.34</td><td>1.46</td><td>1.60</td><td>1.74</td><td>1.82</td><td>2.04</td><td>2.38</td><td>2.36</td><td>2.43</td><td>2.45</td><td>2.51</td><td>9</td><td>27</td><td>40</td><td>10</td><td>32</td><td>50</td><td>9</td><td>22</td><td>26</td><td>25</td><td>73</td><td>100</td></tr><tr><td>2025/12/4</td><td>1.64</td><td>1.76</td><td>1.86</td><td>1.99</td><td>2.03</td><td>2.41</td><td>1.48</td><td>1.59</td><td>1.78</td><td>1.83</td><td>2.02</td><td>2.47</td><td>2.38</td><td>2.47</td><td>2.49</td><td>2.55</td><td>10</td><td>29</td><td>40</td><td>12</td><td>34</td><td>52</td><td>9</td><td>21</td><td>24</td><td>26</td><td>74</td><td>97</td></tr><tr><td>2025/12/11</td><td>1.61</td><td>1.73</td><td>1.82</td><td>1.94</td><td>1.97</td><td>2.38</td><td>1.48</td><td>1.63</td><td>1.75</td><td>1.84</td><td>2.05</td><td>2.44</td><td>2.36</td><td>2.48</td><td>2.51</td><td>2.58</td><td>14</td><td>28</td><td>41</td><td>15</td><td>33</td><td>47</td><td>15</td><td>22</td><td>27</td><td>31</td><td>77</td><td>105</td></tr></table> 数据来源：Wind、DM,浙商证券研究所；注：信用利差由同期限信用债减国开债利率计算得出,统计时间截至2025年12月11日 信用-国开：利差分位数情况 <table><tr><td rowspan="3">日期</td><td colspan="3">银行普通债利差分位数(%)</td><td colspan="3">二级资本债利差分位数(%)</td><td colspan="3">永续债利差分位数(%)</td><td colspan="6">城投债利差分位数(%)</td></tr><tr><td colspan="3">AAA</td><td colspan="3">AAA-</td><td colspan="3">AAA-</td><td colspan="3">AAA</td><td colspan="3">AA-</td></tr><tr><td>1Y</td><td>3Y</td><td>5Y</td><td>1Y</td><td>3Y</td><td>5Y</td><td>1Y</td><td>3Y</td><td>5Y</td><td>1Y</td><td>3Y</td><td>5Y</td><td>1Y</td><td>3Y</td><td>5Y</td></tr><tr><td>2024/6/28</td><td>94</td><td>50</td><td>56</td><td>67</td><td>17</td><td>0</td><td>33</td><td>28</td><td>0</td><td>89</td><td>94</td><td>72</td><td>89</td><td>44</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>2024/7/31</td><td>51</td><td>51</td><td>80</td><td>20</td><td>41</td><td>88</td><td>15</td><td>24</td><td>29</td><td>71</td><td>83</td><td>46</td><td>15</td><td>32</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>2024/8/5</td><td>52</td><td>52</td><td>7</td><td>43</td><td>34</td><td>14</td><td>32</td><td>11</td><td>0</td><td>77</td><td>61</td><td>0</td><td>59</td><td>9</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>2024/8/30</td><td>87</td><td>94</td><td>98</td><td>89</td><td>95</td><td>95</td><td>90</td><td>95</td><td>97</td><td>100</td><td>97</td><td>98</td><td>100</td><td>97</td><td>37</td></tr><tr><td>2024/9/24</td><td>52</td><td>75</td><td>100</td><td>82</td><td>82</td><td>95</td><td>90</td><td>95</td><td>90</td><td>95</td><td>100</td><td>100</td><td>99</td><td>100</td><td>87</td></tr><tr><td>2024/9/30</td><td>100</td><td>100</td><td>100</td><td>100</td><td>100</td><td>100</td><td>100</td><td>100</td><td>100</td><td>100</td><td>100</td><td>100</td><td>100</td><td>100</td><td>95</td></tr><tr><td>2024/10/31</td><td>21</td><td>95</td><td>100</td><td>87</td><td>87</td><td>93</td><td>90</td><td>91</td><td>94</td><td>91</td><td>96</td><td>98</td><td>95</td><td>95</td><td>100</td></tr><tr><td>2024/11/29</td><td>27</td><td>65</td><td>85</td><td>70</td><td>75</td><td>73</td><td>60</td><td>75</td><td>71</td><td>77</td><td>56</td><td>84</td><td>67</td><td>77</td><td>85</td></tr><tr><td>2025/1/24</td><td>98</td><td>62</td><td>62</td><td>69</td><td>47</td><td>53</td><td>75</td><td>56</td><td>52</td><td>83</td><td>65</td><td>60</td><td>74</td><td>52</td><td>56</td></tr><tr><td>2025/2/7</td><td>52</td><td>60</td><td>61</td><td>13</td><td>36</td><td>48</td><td>32</td><td>44</td><td>50</td><td>62</td><td>71</td><td>67</td><td>65</td><td>54</td><td>58</td></tr><tr><td>2025/2/28</td><td>95</td><td>82</td><td>45</td><td>89</td><td>72</td><td>59</td><td>89</td><td>73</td><td>67</td><td>58</td><td>77</td><td>73</td><td>67</td><td>47</td><td>45</td></tr><tr><td>2025/3/7</td><td>92</td><td>68</td><td>48</td><td>93</td><td>85</td><td>80</td><td>93</td><td>89</td><td>84</td><td>80</td><td>83</td><td>87</td><td>68</td><td>57</td><td>44</td></tr><tr><td>2025/3/14</td><td>67</td><td>88</td><td>62</td><td>71</td><td>89</td><td>84</td><td>79</td><td>89</td><td>92</td><td>69</td><td>91</td><td>98</td><td>62</td><td>66</td><td>55</td></tr><tr><td>2025/3/17</td><td>53</td><td>79</td><td>51</td><td>67</td><td>88</td><td>86</td><td>82</td><td>89</td><td>94</td><td>56</td><td>88</td><td>94</td><td>57</td><td>59</td><td>52</td></tr><tr><td>2025/4/3</td><td>4</td><td>32</td><td>65</td><td>4</td><td>30</td><td>60</td><td>7</td><td>32</td><td>55</td><td>19</td><td>41</td><td>65</td><td>25</td><td>36</td><td>52</td></tr><tr><td>2025/4/30</td><td>11</td><td>29</td><td>58</td><td>0</td><td>21</td><td>56</td><td>0</td><td>23</td><td>47</td><td>5</td><td>36</td><td>79</td><td>21</td><td>36</td><td>42</td></tr><tr><td>2025/5/9</td><td>14</td><td>21</td><td>53</td><td>1</td><td>18</td><td>56</td><td>1</td><td>18</td><td>37</td><td>21</td><td>23</td><td>64</td><td>29</td><td>43</td><td>35</td></tr><tr><td>2025/5/16</td><td>11</td><td>26</td><td>35</td><td>3</td><td>25</td><td>46</td><td>2</td><td>28</td><td>38</td><td>0</td><td>24</td><td>37</td><td>7</td><td>42</td><td>35</td></tr><tr><td>2025/5/20</td><td>3</td><td>26</td><td>32</td><td>3</td><td>25</td><td>33</td><td>3</td><td>26</td><td>32</td><td>0</td><td>23</td><td>34</td><td>3</td><td>39</td><td>33</td></tr><tr><td>2025/5/30</td><td>16</td><td>26</td><td>35</td><td>7</td><td>31</td><td>38</td><td>7</td><td>27</td><td>38</td><td>3</td><td>18</td><td>34</td><td>7</td><td>24</td><td>28</td></tr><tr><td>2025/6/27</td><td>26</td><td>34</td><td>41</td><td>20</td><td>42</td><td>46</td><td>16</td><td>33</td><td>43</td><td>12</td><td>33</td><td>34</td><td>6</td><td>24</td><td>25</td></tr><tr><td>2025/7/4</td><td>2</td><td>6</td><td>22</td><td>0</td><td>12</td><td>17</td><td>0</td><td>17</td><td>17</td><td>13</td><td>18</td><td>18</td><td>1</td><td>17</td><td>21</td></tr><tr><td>2025/7/11</td><td>0</td><td>16</td><td>16</td><td>0</td><td>18</td><td>17</td><td>0</td><td>19</td><td>17</td><td>2</td><td>14</td><td>16</td><td>0</td><td>14</td><td>18</td></tr><tr><td>2025/7/18</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>18</td><td>0</td><td>10</td><td>18</td><td>0</td><td>15</td><td>17</td><td>2</td><td>1</td><td>17</td><td>0</td><td>18</td><td>18</td></tr><tr><td>2025/7/25</td><td>9</td><td>12</td><td>16</td><td>6</td><td>37</td><td>27</td><td>11</td><td>37</td><td>33</td><td>10</td><td>13</td><td>21</td><td>11</td><td>20</td><td>16</td></tr><tr><td>2025/7/29</td><td>20</td><td>14</td><td>16</td><td>9</td><td>34</td><td>27</td><td>19</td><td>34</td><td>28</td><td>8</td><td>24</td><td>20</td><td>10</td><td>21</td><td>18</td></tr><tr><td>2025/8/29</td><td>2</td><td>25</td><td>10</td><td>6</td><td>38</td><td>26</td><td>8</td><td>28</td><td>54</td><td>7</td><td>34</td><td>26</td><td>7</td><td>39</td><td>25</td></tr><tr><td>2025/9/10</td><td>5</td><td>12</td><td>0</td><td>5</td><td>51</td><td>35</td><td>5</td><td>43</td><td>75</td><td>0</td><td>27</td><td>4</td><td>8</td><td>26</td><td>12</td></tr><tr><td>2025/9/26</td><td>3</td><td>3</td><td>34</td><td>11</td><td>70</td><td>96</td><td>14</td><td>73</td><td>98</td><td>4</td><td>44</td><td>53</td><td>13</td><td>50</td><td>30</td></tr><tr><td>2025/10/30</td><td>2</td><td>18</td><td>25</td><td>1</td><td>11</td><td>73</td><td>3</td><td>15</td><td>55</td><td>2</td><td>1</td><td>20</td><td>1</td><td>35</td><td>13</td></tr><tr><td>2025/11/20</td><td>1</td><td>7</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>19</td><td>69</td><td>0</td><td>23</td><td>71</td><td>0</td><td>3</td><td>9</td><td>0</td><td>25</td><td>8</td></tr><tr><td>2025/11/27</td><td>3</td><td>30</td><td>1</td><td>8</td><td>52</td><td>75</td><td>6</td><td>57</td><td>80</td><td>4</td><td>31</td><td>21</td><td>4</td><td>40</td><td>7</td></tr><tr><td>2025/12/4</td><td>3</td><td>13</td><td>0</td><td>10</td><td>62</td><td>72</td><td>10</td><td>67</td><td>85</td><td>8</td><td>27</td><td>15</td><td>7</td><td>41</td><td>7</td></tr><tr><td>2025/12/11</td><td>10</td><td>21</td><td>1</td><td>14</td><td>60</td><td>77</td><td>13</td><td>59</td><td>73</td><td>18</td><td>31</td><td>23</td><td>10</td><td>52</td><td>15</td></tr><tr><td>2024年6月至今(pct)</td><td>-85</td><td>-29</td><td>-55</td><td>-53</td><td>43</td><td>77</td><td>-21</td><td>32</td><td>73</td><td>-71</td><td>-63</td><td>-49</td><td>-79</td><td>7</td><td>15</td></tr><tr><td>过去一周变化</td><td>7</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>3</td><td>-3</td><td>5</td><td>2</td><td>-7</td><td>-11</td><td>10</td><td>4</td><td>8</td><td>3</td><td>10</td><td>8</td></tr></table> 数据来源：Wind,浙商证券研究所；注：统计自2024年6月末以来利差分位数,统计时间截至2025年12月11日 # 各券种比价情况 单位：bp # 各品种利差走势一览 <table><tr><td colspan="35">银行二级资本债-国开</td></tr><tr><td colspan="34">银行一级资本债-国开</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>AAA-</td><td>1Y</td><td>2Y</td><td>3Y</td><td>5Y</td><td>7Y</td><td>10Y</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>AAA+</td><td>14.47</td><td>20.17</td><td>30.11</td><td>41.51</td><td>51.03</td><td>58.55</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>AA-</td><td>14.97</td><td>21.92</td><td>33.61</td><td>46.98</td><td>53.14</td><td>65.66</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>AA</td><td>19.97</td><td>26.92</td><td>39.61</td><td>61.98</td><td>70.14</td><td>82.66</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>AA-</td><td>30.97</td><td>40.92</td><td>54.61</td><td>92.98</td><td>105.14</td><td>117.66</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td colspan="34">银行永续债-国开</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>AAA-</td><td>1Y</td><td>2Y</td><td>3Y</td><td>5Y</td><td>7Y</td><td>10Y</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>AAA+</td><td>15.72</td><td>22.79</td><td>35.27</td><td>50.20</td><td>55.46</td><td>64.69</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>AA-</td><td>17.71</td><td>25.78</td><td>39.27</td><td>56.20</td><td>63.46</td><td>72.69</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>AA</td><td>20.71</td><td>29.78</td><td>43.27</td><td>66.20</td><td>77.46</td><td>88.69</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>AA-</td><td>36.71</td><td>51.78</td><td>66.27</td><td>103.20</td><td>119.46</td><td>130.69</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td colspan="34">城投债-国开</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>AAA-</td><td>1Y</td><td>2Y</td><td>3Y</td><td>5Y</td><td>7Y</td><td>10Y</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>AAA+</td><td>15.02</td><td>18.70</td><td>23.01</td><td>28.32</td><td>33.45</td><td>48.27</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>AA+</td><td>18.51</td><td>23.64</td><td>28.00</td><td>35.17</td><td>44.31</td><td>62.32</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>AA</td><td>21.31</td><td>29.54</td><td>36.40</td><td>47.87</td><td>63.31</td><td>83.32</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>AA(2)</td><td>23.91</td><td>36.16</td><td>44.90</td><td>67.77</td><td>104.31</td><td>124.32</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>AA-</td><td>31.11</td><td>59.16</td><td>77.40</td><td>103.77</td><td>174.31</td><td>196.32</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td colspan="34">中短期票据-国开</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>AAA+</td><td>1Y</td><td>2Y</td><td>3Y</td><td>5Y</td><td>7Y</td><td>10Y</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>AAA+</td><td>10.74</td><td>16.24</td><td>16.96</td><td>20.66</td><td>23.85</td><td>38.82</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>AAA</td><td>11.52</td><td>17.34</td><td>20.62</td><td>24.43</td><td>28.38</td><td>44.96</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>AAA-</td><td>14.52</td><td>21.34</td><td>24.62</td><td>30.43</td><td>34.38</td><td>52.96</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>AA+</td><td>17.52</td><td>25.34</td><td>28.62</td><td>35.43</td><td>43.38</td><td>62.96</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>AA</td><td>20.52</td><td>35.34</td><td>38.62</td><td>49.43</td><td>65.38</td><td>85.96</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>AA-</td><td>5