从4G到5G：有哪些服务提供商？（英文版）_19页-7mb

报告摘要

4G to 5G: What Service Providers Are Saying

Core Content Overview

The document provides an analysis of the global transition from 4G to 5G, focusing on the current state of 4G networks, the upcoming 5G rollouts, and the challenges and drivers influencing this evolution. It is based on a survey of 21 major 4G service providers, representing a significant portion of the world’s telecom revenue and capex.

Current State of 4G Networks

Market Maturity: The worldwide mobile infrastructure hardware market has matured, with values fluctuating between $31B and $48B.
Network Lifecycle:
- 2G is declining.
- 3G is in maturity.
- LTE peaked in 2015.
- LTE-A and LTE-A Pro are gaining traction.
- 5G is still in development.
4G Adoption:
- 71% of service providers have implemented LTE-A features such as:
  - Enhanced inter-cell interference coordination (eICIC)
  - Three-component carrier aggregation (CA)
  - Coordinated multipoint operation (CoMP)
- 48% plan to deploy LTE-A Pro LAA by the end of 2017.
- 38% have plans for LTE + WiFi Link aggregation (LWA).
Key Technologies:
- 4x4 MIMO (multiple-input multiple-output) is a major deployment in 2017.
- 256 QAM (quadrature amplitude modulation) is used to increase data rates and spectral efficiency.
NarrowBand IoT (NB-IoT):
- NB-IoT is the most widely deployed LTE-A Pro feature.
- MulteFire is gaining momentum as an alternative to LTE-A Pro.

5G Readiness and Deployment Timeline

5G Readiness:
- 14% of service providers expect to launch pre-commercial 5G services by the end of 2017.
- Early commercial rollouts will occur in the 6GHz+ spectrum.
- Full-scale commercial 5G is expected to begin in 2020 or later.
Massive IoT:
- Expected to be deployed well beyond 2020.

Drivers and Challenges of 5G

Top Drivers for 5G Adoption

Ultra-low latency is the primary technical driver for 5G adoption.
Use Cases:
- Extreme mobile broadband
- Real-time gaming
- Tactile low-latency touch and steer

Top Technical Challenge

Achieving 1ms latency is the main challenge in upgrading to 5G.
This can be addressed through:
- Millimeter waves
- Mobile edge computing
- Programmable core networks

Top Barrier to 5G Upgrades

Undefined business model is the leading obstacle.
Service providers are uncertain about how much customers are willing to pay for 5G services compared to 4G.

Key Takeaways from the Survey

LTE deployments are transitioning into true 4G with LTE-A and LTE-A Pro.
Commercial 5G services are expected to spread out in 2018.
Early 5G rollouts will occur in the 6GHz+ spectrum.
Ultra-low latency is the main driver for 5G, but the business model remains unclear.
The survey highlights the need for continued R&D, particularly in radio technology.

Survey Methodology

Participants: 21 service providers from around the world, representing over half of the global telecom revenue and capex.
Scope: Includes 4G and 5G deployment plans, challenges, and service offerings.
Coverage: Respondents include many of the world’s top 10 service providers by revenue, with a total of nearly 2.4 billion mobile subscribers, or 40% of the global total.

Meet the Analyst

Stéphane Téral, Executive Director – Research and Analysis, Mobile Infrastructure & Carrier Economics, emphasizes that LTE-A Pro is increasingly incorporating features previously associated with 5G, potentially delaying the need for full 5G deployment.

Contact Information

North and South America: +1 844 301 7334 | technology_us@ihsmarkit.com
Europe, Middle East, and Africa: +44 (0) 1344 328155 | technology_emea@ihsmarket.com
Asia Pacific: +60 04 2913763 | technology_apac@ihsmarket.com
Website: technology.ihs.com

About IHS Markit

IHS Markit is a global leader in providing critical information, analytics, and solutions for major industries.
It serves over 50,000 customers, including 85% of the Fortune Global 500 and leading financial institutions.
Headquartered in London, the company is committed to sustainable, profitable growth.

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