IHS-从4G到5G：有哪些服务提供商？（英文版）-2017-19页-6mb

4G to 5G: What Service Providers Are Saying

Core Content Overview

This document provides insights into the transition from 4G (LTE) to 5G, based on a survey of 21 of the world's largest 4G service providers. It outlines the current state of 4G networks, the expected timeline for 5G deployment, and the key drivers and challenges for the transition.

4G: Laying the Groundwork for 5G

• 4G networks are evolving rapidly, with many service providers already implementing LTE-A and LTE-A Pro features.
• Key LTE-A technologies deployed include:
  • Enhanced inter-cell interference coordination (eICIC)
  • Three-component carrier aggregation (CA)
  • Coordinated multipoint operation (CoMP)
• 4x4 MIMO and 256 QAM are being introduced in 2017 to boost network capacity and data speeds.
• LTE-A Pro LAA is expected to be deployed by nearly half (48%) of the service providers by the end of 2017.
• NarrowBand IoT (NB-IoT) is the most widely deployed LTE-A Pro feature, while MulteFire is gaining traction.

5G: The Future is Coming

• 5G is progressing faster than previous generations, with early commercial trials and deployments expected.
• Pre-commercial 5G services are anticipated as early as the end of 2017, with 14% of respondents planning to launch them.
• Commercial 5G deployment is expected to begin in 2020 or later, with most service providers not ready for full-scale rollout yet.
• Early 5G rollouts will occur in the 6GHz spectrum and above.
• Massive IoT applications are expected to be realized well beyond 2020.

Drivers and Challenges of 5G Rollouts

• Ultra-low latency is the top technical driver for 5G adoption, especially for applications like VR and AR.
• The chief technical challenge is achieving 1ms latency, which can be addressed through millimeter waves, mobile edge computing, and programmable core networks.
• Undefined business models are the top barrier to 5G upgrades, as service providers struggle to determine how much customers are willing to pay for 5G services compared to 4G.

Top 3 Use Cases for 5G

• Extreme mobile broadband
• Real-time gaming
• Tactile low-latency touch and steer

Key Takeaways

• LTE deployments are now transitioning into true 4G (LTE-A and LTE-A Pro).
• Commercial 5G services will spread gradually in 2018 and beyond.
• Early 5G rollouts will use higher frequency bands (above 6GHz).
• Ultra-low latency is a major driver, while uncertainty around business models is a significant obstacle.
• Radio technology requires the most R&D effort in the transition to 5G.

Survey Details

• The survey was conducted by IHS Markit.
• 21 service providers were interviewed, representing half of the world’s telecom revenue and capex.
• These providers account for 40% of the global mobile subscriber base, with almost 2.4 billion subscribers in total.

Meet the Analyst

• Stéphane Téral, Executive Director of Research and Analysis at IHS Markit, highlights that LTE-A Pro may incorporate many 5G features, potentially delaying the need for a full 5G rollout or allowing for a more mature deployment.

Our 5G Team

• The survey was led by a team of industry experts, including:
  • Ian Fogg – Senior Director, Mobile & Telecoms
  • John Kendall – Associate Director Research and Analysis, Service Provider Technology
  • Jack Kent – Director, Operators & Mobile Media
  • Wayne Lam – Principal Analyst, Mobile Devices & Networks
  • Sam Lucero – Senior Principal Analyst, M2M and IoT
  • Bill Morelli – Senior Director, IT and Networking
  • Seth Wallis-Jones – Principal Research Analyst, Service Providers & Platforms
  • Kevin Wang – Director, Semiconductor Value Chain and Mobile Devices & Networks
  • Julian Watson – Senior Principal Analyst, IoT
  • Richard Webb – Director, Research and Analysis, Service Provider Technology