从4G到5G_有哪些服务提供商_（英文版）_17页_6mb

4G to 5G: What Service Providers Are Saying

Core Content Overview

This document outlines the current state of 4G (LTE) networks and the anticipated evolution towards 5G, based on a survey of 21 major global service providers. It highlights the transition from LTE to LTE-A and LTE-A Pro, the readiness for 5G, and the key drivers and challenges in the migration process.

Main Findings from the 4G to 5G Transition

4G is becoming a reality

• LTE-A and LTE-A Pro are widely implemented, with 71% of service providers having already rolled out key LTE-A features.
• These features include:
  • Enhanced inter-cell interference coordination (eICIC)
  • Three-component carrier aggregation (CA)
  • Coordinated multipoint operation (CoMP)

2017: A pivotal year for 4G

• 4x4 MIMO and 256 QAM are the second set of features being deployed.
• These technologies are expected to significantly boost network capacity and data rates while maintaining cost efficiency.

LTE-A Pro LAA and LWA

• 48% of service providers plan to deploy Licensed Assisted Access (LAA) by the end of 2017.
• Another 38% are looking into LTE + WiFi Link Aggregation (LWA).
• NarrowBand IoT (NB-IoT) is the most widely deployed LTE-A Pro feature.
• MulteFire is gaining traction as a complementary technology.

5G Readiness and Deployment Timeline

5G is coming faster than expected

• 14% of service providers expect to launch pre-commercial 5G services by the end of 2017.
• Early commercial rollouts are likely to occur in spectrum above 6GHz.

Full-scale commercial 5G expected by 2020

• 75% of respondents expect full commercial 5G deployment to begin in 2020 or later.
• Massive IoT is anticipated to follow much later than 2020.

Drivers and Challenges of 5G Migration

Key Driver: Ultra-low latency

• Ultra-low latency is the top technical factor driving 5G adoption, especially for applications like VR and AR.
• This can be addressed through millimeter waves, mobile edge computing, and programmable core networks.

Top Challenge: Achieving 1ms latency

• Survey respondents identified achieving 1ms latency as the main technical challenge in 5G upgrades.

Top Barrier: Uncertain business model

• Undefined business model is the primary barrier to 5G adoption.
• Service providers are unsure how much customers will be willing to pay for 5G compared to 4G services.

R&D Focus

• The radio technology is the area requiring the most R&D effort in the transition to 5G.

Key Takeaways

• LTE deployments are now transitioning to full 4G (LTE-A and LTE-A Pro).
• Commercial 5G services will spread out in 2018.
• Early 5G rollouts will occur in high-frequency spectrum.
• Ultra-low latency is the chief driver for 5G.
• Undefined business model is the top barrier to 5G adoption.

About the Survey

• Conducted by IHS Markit, the survey assesses market trends and service provider 4G and 5G deployment plans.
• 21 service providers were interviewed, representing half of the world’s telecom revenue and capex.
• These providers include many of the top 10 global service providers and collectively serve ~2.4 billion mobile subscribers, or 40% of the global total.

Meet the Analyst

• Stéphane Téral, Executive Director – Research and Analysis, Mobile Infrastructure & Carrier Economics, noted that LTE-A Pro is incorporating many features previously considered "5G," suggesting that the evolution of LTE may delay or complement the need for 5G.

Our 5G Team

• The survey was conducted by a team of experts including:
  • Ian Fogg (Senior Director, Mobile & Telecoms)
  • John Kendall (Associate Director Research and Analysis, Service Provider Technology)
  • Jack Kent (Director, Operators & Mobile Media)
  • Wayne Lam (Principal Analyst, Mobile Devices & Networks)
  • Sam Lucero (Senior Principal Analyst, M2M and IoT)
  • Bill Morelli (Senior Director, IT and Networking)
  • Seth Wallis-Jones (Principal Research Analyst, Service Providers & Platforms)
  • Kevin Wang (Director, Semiconductor Value Chain and Mobile Devices & Networks)
  • Julian Watson (Senior Principal Analyst, IoT)
  • Richard Webb (Director, Research and Analysis, Service Provider Technology)