20140523-招商证券_香港_-Hong_Kong_Morning_Daily_13页_1mb

报告摘要

Macro Monitor Summary

Core Economic Data Overview

Eurozone Composite PMI in May registered at 53.9, a slight decline from April's 35-month high of 54.0, but remained at a relatively strong level.
- Services PMI rose to 53.5 (up from 53.1), showing improvement.
- Manufacturing PMI fell to 52.5 (down from 53.3), marking a 6-month low.
- New orders accelerated to a 3-year high, and employment continued to expand.
- Output prices contracted, indicating potential further downward pressure on CPI.
Germany Composite PMI in May was at 56.1, down slightly from April's 56.3.
- Services PMI increased to 56.4 (up from 55.0), while manufacturing PMI declined to 52.9 (down from 54.2).
- Forward-looking indicators like new orders remained strong, and the outlook for German growth remains unchanged.
France Composite PMI in May dropped to 49.3, down from 50.5, marking a contraction for the first time in 3 months and disappointing market forecasts.
- Both manufacturing and services sectors slowed and fell below 50.
- Subcategories across the board were lower than April.
- A major reform was passed in mid-May to improve labor market competitiveness, which may lead to a marginal improvement in employment data in the second half of 2014.
Other countries in the region continued to accelerate, reaching the highest levels since August 2007, with output and new orders rising.
Overall, May's data was the second best performance in three years, indicating a positive sign for Eurozone growth in Q2.

Key Economic Indicators

HSI (Hang Seng Index): Last price 22,836.52, with a +0.01% change.
FTSE 100: Last price 6,798.29, with a -0.04% change.
DAX 30: Last price 9,638.62, with a -0.02% change.
CAC 40: Last price 4,445.02, with a -0.15% change.
DJIA: Last price 16,374.31, with a -0.83% change.
S&P 500: Last price 1,872.83, with a -0.65% change.
Nasdaq Composite: Last price 4,096.89, with a -0.70% change.
Nikkei 225: Last price 14,042.17, with a -0.24% change.

Sector Updates

Property Sector

China Merchants Securities (HK) noted that local governments have increased flexibility in property curbs, especially in non-mega cities.
Tianjin, Guangxi, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Jiangsu have loosened policies on property control, including adjustments to purchase restrictions, tax relief, and easing of resident registration rules.
The Shibor index and Yu'ebao return rate remain low, indicating good liquidity.
The sludge treatment market is not well developed, with only 1/4 of sludge being properly treated.
The potential market size is estimated to be RMB10 bn by 2015.
Companies with sludge treatment capacity include Sound Environmental (000826 CH), Welle Environmental (300190 CH), Grandblue Environment (600323 CH), Dongjiang Environmental (002672 CH), and CEC Environmental (300172 CH).
Favorable policies could improve the valuation of these companies.
Risk Reminder: The timing of sludge treatment policies is uncertain, and the proportions of sludge treatment in listed companies are relatively low.

Stock Pool Update (2014-5-23)

Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods

Ports: Neutral, HKD 3.59, target price HKD 4.00, upside potential 11%.
Belle: Neutral, HKD 8.26, target price HKD 8.95, upside potential 8%.
Xstep: Buy, HKD 3.17, target price HKD 4.00, upside potential 26%.
Anta Sports: Buy, HKD 11.66, target price HKD 13.47, upside potential 16%.
361 Degrees: Neutral, HKD 1.78, target price HKD 1.71, upside potential -4%.
Peak Sport: Buy, HKD 2.14, target price HKD 2.50, upside potential 17%.
Li Ning: Buy, HKD 5.07, target price HKD 5.20, upside potential 3%.
China Dongxiang: Buy, HKD 1.38, target price HKD 1.64, upside potential 19%.

Metals & Mining

Zhaojin Mining: Neutral, HKD 4.25, target price HKD 4.70, upside potential 11%.
Zijin Mining: Neutral, HKD 1.74, target price HKD 1.57, upside potential -10%.
Jiangxi Copper: Sell, HKD 6.885, target price HKD 6.885, upside potential -18%.
China Oilfield: Buy, HKD 18.84, target price HKD 21.00, upside potential 11%.
Jutal Oil Ser: Buy, HKD 1.51, target price HKD 1.90, upside potential 26%.
Hilong: Buy, HKD 4.22, target price HKD 5.10, upside potential 21%.

Property

China Overseas: Buy, HKD 18.70, target price HKD 22.56, upside potential 21%.
China Res Land: Buy, HKD 14.86, target price HKD 17.00, upside potential 14%.
Evergrande: Buy, HKD 3.37, target price HKD 4.38, upside potential 30%.
Greentown China: Buy, HKD 8.15, target price HKD 18.80, upside potential 131%.
Hopson Dev Hold: Buy, HKD 7.06, target price HKD 12.20, upside potential 73%.
Ch Merchant Land: Buy, HKD 0.94, target price HKD 2.30, upside potential 145%.
SUNAC: Buy, HKD 3.52, target price HKD 6.66, upside potential 89%.

Consumer Discretionary

Intime: Buy, HKD 7.85, target price HKD 10.30, upside potential 31%.
Springland: Neutral, HKD 3.06, target price HKD 4.10, upside potential 34%.
GOME: Buy, HKD 1.35, target price HKD 1.64, upside potential 21%.
Bonjour Holdings: Neutral, HKD 1.24, target price HKD 1.58, upside potential 27%.
Haier Electronics: Buy, HKD 18.00, target price HKD 24.40, upside potential 36%.
Sa Sa International: Buy, HKD 5.80, target price HKD 8.20, upside potential 41%.

Telecommunication

China Mobile: Neutral, HKD 78.15, target price HKD 78.00, upside potential 0%.
China Unicom: Neutral, HKD 11.58, target price HKD 11.34, upside potential -2%.
China Telecom: Neutral, HKD 3.95, target price HKD 3.45, upside potential -13%.

Information Technology

Tencent: Buy, HKD 514.00, target price HKD 638.00, upside potential 24%.
Kingsoft: Buy, HKD 24.25, target price HKD 42.11, upside potential 74%.
Wisdom: Buy, HKD 3.93, target price HKD 7.00, upside potential 78%.
Netdragon: Buy, HKD 12.74, target price HKD 20.34, upside potential 60%.
Chinasoft: Neutral, HKD 2.34, target price HKD 2.00, upside potential -15%.
Kingdee: Neutral, HKD 2.38, target price HKD 1.40, upside potential -41%.

Port

China Merchant Hldg: Neutral, HKD 23.75, target price HKD 26.43, upside potential 11%.
Cosco Pacific: Buy, HKD 10.38, target price HKD 12.46, upside potential 20%.

Shipping

Sinotrans Shipping: Neutral, HKD 2.13, target price HKD 2.40, upside potential 13%.
OOIL: Buy, HKD 39.05, target price HKD 51.00, upside potential 31%.
CSCL: Neutral, HKD 1.92, target price HKD 1.82, upside potential -5%.

Alternative Energy

GCL-Poly Energy: Buy, HKD 2.38, target price HKD 1.97, upside potential -17%.
Singyes Solar: Buy, HKD 10.42, target price HKD 14.23, upside potential 37%.
Goldwind: Buy, HKD 8.39, target price HKD 12.30, upside potential 47%.
Longyuan Power: Neutral, HKD 8.41, target price HKD 8.16, upside potential -3%.
Datang Power: Neutral, HKD 1.06, target price HKD 1.59, upside potential 50%.
China Wind Power: Buy, HKD 0.57, target price HKD 1.10, upside potential 93%.
Tianneng Power: Buy, HKD 2.57, target price HKD 6.65, upside potential 159%.

Economic Data to Watch

HK: No significant data.
US: New Home Sales on 2014/05/23.

Summary

The Eurozone showed a slight moderation in manufacturing, but services improved, with new orders reaching a 3-year high.
France experienced a contraction in PMI, indicating economic uncertainty.
Property policies in China are becoming more flexible, with local governments easing restrictions.
The sludge treatment market is underdeveloped, but has potential due to environmental policies.
Stock ratings and target prices reflect optimistic views on some sectors, while others show caution or downgrade.
Market performance varies, with some stocks showing positive potential and others experiencing declines.
Key indicators such as PMI and stock ratings suggest mixed economic conditions across the region.