20131118-招商证券_香港_-Hong_Kong_Morning_Daily_16页_222kb

报告摘要

详细总结

1. Sina.com Inc. (SINA.O) - Weibo monetization in line with expectations; maintain "Buy"

核心内容

Sina reported Q3 2013 results, showing sales growth of 21% YoY to $184.6 million.
Weibo advertising revenue grew 126% YoY to $43 million, contributing significantly to Sina's total revenue.
Weibo's business is close to profitability, with its high-margin nature becoming a key revenue driver.

主要观点

Weibo's advertising revenue is growing rapidly, especially through its cooperation with Alibaba, which contributed $20 million in Q3.
Despite a slight decline in Weibo's own advertising revenue to $23 million from $25 million in the previous quarter, the overall advertising revenue grew 26% YoY to $151.6 million.
The company's gross margin, operating margin, and net margin increased to 64.0%, 12.6%, and 13.8%, respectively, due to the growing contribution of high-margin Weibo business.

关键信息

EPS forecast for 2013 was raised from -$0.36 to $0.53.
Target price (TP) was raised from $90.7 to $97.5, reflecting a higher valuation of the Weibo business.
The "Buy" rating is maintained due to the positive performance and growth prospects of Weibo's advertising business.

2. NewOcean Energy Ltd. (00342.HK) - Marine fuels to power FY14 earnings growth

核心内容

NewOcean's marine fuels business is expected to be the main driver of earnings growth in FY14, driven by the startup of its 70,000-tonne oil terminal in Zhuhai.
The company is projected to increase marine bunker fuel sales to 1.2 million tonnes in FY14, with a 60-100% YoY increase.

主要观点

The marine fuels business could see a 5-fold increase in oil product profits in FY14.
The disintermediation of the oil supply chain is expected to boost maritime fuel margins to 3.8%-4.8%, more than tripling.
NewOcean plans to enter the Hong Kong LPG market, capturing 30% (27,000 tonnes) of the market with cheaper LPG from Shenzhen.
This is expected to raise the GPM (Gross Profit Margin) of the LPG division by 50bps to 9.5%.

关键信息

FY14 EPS was revised to HK$0.5584 (from HK$0.5505).
New target price is HK$5.60 (from HK$5.30), based on a 10x mid-cycle earnings multiple.
The "Buy" rating is maintained due to strong growth potential in the marine fuels business.

3. Eurozone 3Q13 GDP growth moderated, a modest recovery on the horizon

核心内容

The Eurozone's Q3 2013 GDP growth slowed to 0.1% QoQ from 0.3% QoQ in Q2, with a -0.4% YoY growth rate.
The core countries slowed, while periphery countries remained weak, leading to overall moderate growth.

主要观点

Germany's GDP growth moderated to 0.3% QoQ from 0.7% QoQ, in line with expectations.
France's GDP declined to -0.1% QoQ, below market expectations, due to net exports and weak private investment.
Italy continued to face a recession, with -0.1% QoQ growth, but slightly improved from -0.3% QoQ in Q2.
Spain showed the first quarterly growth in 11 quarters at 0.1% QoQ, indicating a potential turning point.

关键信息

The ECB interest rate cut on November 7 is expected to stabilize inflation.
GDP growth is likely to return to positive levels in 2014 or even in 4Q13, due to improving external demand and a low base effect.
Systemic downside risks have declined, and economic fundamentals are improving in several problem countries.

4. China to ease decades-old one-child policy nationwide

核心内容

China announced the relaxation of the one-child policy, allowing couples where one parent is an only child to have a second child.
This marks the most significant liberalization of the policy in about three decades.

主要观点

The policy will benefit milk powder producers, such as Biostime International, Yashili, and Mengniu Dairy.
The birth rate is expected to increase by 10%, adding 1.6 million new births annually.
This could lead to an increase of RMB1.6 billion to RMB3.2 billion in the baby formula market.

关键信息

The policy change is expected to have a positive impact on the baby formula industry.
Short-term opportunities may arise due to the low valuation and earnings vacuum in the white liquor sector.
The mass consumption sector is expected to see short-term rebounds due to the seesaw effect between white liquor and mass consumption stocks.

5. Macro Monitor - Eurozone week in review

核心内容

The Eurozone's Q3 GDP data confirmed moderate growth and high uncertainty, which negatively impacted growth, sentiment, and demand.
Unemployment, fiscal consolidation, and structural reforms are headwinds to growth in the short to medium term.

主要观点

Germany's growth is moderated but still driven by domestic demand.
France's growth is slightly weaker than expected, mainly due to net exports.
Italy remains in recession, but there is a slight improvement from Q2.
Spain's growth is a positive sign, indicating a potential turning point in its recovery.

关键信息

GDP growth is expected to rebound in 4Q13 and carry forward into 2014.
Economic fundamentals are improving in several problem countries.
Systemic downside risks have declined, and modest recovery is on the horizon.

6. Sector Updates - Steel, Food & Beverage, Auto, etc.

核心内容

The steel industry faces pressure to conserve energy and reduce emissions, which will constrain production capacity.
The white liquor sector has a low P/E ratio and short-term opportunities due to low valuation and earnings vacuum.
The auto industry is showing mixed performance, with some companies performing well and others underperforming.

主要观点

Environmental protection measures will accelerate the elimination of outdated capacities and improve the supply-demand situation.
White liquor stocks may see trading rebounds in the coming quarters due to the seesaw effect with mass consumption stocks.
Mass consumption stocks have lower earnings but are expected to recover due to price hikes and product optimization.

关键信息

Key sectors to watch include steel, white liquor, auto, and oil & gas.
Investment advice includes focusing on regions and product types for steel.
Liquidity and cost pressures are affecting the food & beverage sector, but leading companies are expected to offset these impacts.

7. Stock Pool Update - Key Highlights

核心内容

A range of stocks are reviewed, including textiles, apparel, luxury goods, metals & mining, auto & others, and oil & gas.
The target prices, EPS forecasts, and upside potential are highlighted for each stock.

主要观点

Anta Sports and China Shenhua are recommended with "Buy" ratings and significant upside potential.
Chalco and Rusal are recommended with "Sell" ratings due to negative performance and declining EPS.
Geely Auto and Greatwall Motor are showing mixed performance, with "Buy" ratings and moderate upside potential.

关键信息

Key stocks include NewOcean Energy, Petro China, Sinopec Corp, and Cnooc, all with "Buy" ratings.
Upside potential ranges from -43% to 77% depending on the stock.
Analysts involved include Ivy Zhao, Li Xiang, and Colleen Li.

8. Global and Hong Kong Indices

核心内容

Hong Kong Indices and World Indices are listed with their last prices, changes, and percentage changes.
The HSI One Year and HSCEI One Year charts are included, showing market trends.

主要观点

The HSI increased by 1.69%, while the HSCEI increased by 3.00%.
The FTSE 100, DAX 30, and Nikkei 225 are also listed with positive changes.

关键信息

Indices are updated with last prices and changes.
Market trends are visualized through charts and tables.
Source: Bloomberg.

9. Commodity and Currency Data

核心内容

Global Commodity and Exchange/Currency/Market data are provided, including Brent Oil, Gold, LME Aluminum, LME Copper, BDI, and API Coal.
USD/RMB, USD/HKD, EUR/USD, and 3-M Libor are also listed with their last prices and changes.

主要观点

Brent Oil slightly declined, while Gold and LME Copper showed positive changes.
Currency and market indices are showing mixed performance, with some declines and increases.