20131009-招商证券_香港_-Hong_Kong_Morning_Daily_12页_200kb

A-share Research Highlights Summary

1. Retail Industry Analysis

• Retail Sales Growth: Retail sales (including restaurants) increased by 13.6% during the National Day holiday compared to the same period last year, reaching RMB870 billion. This growth was in line with expectations, despite a lower growth rate than previous years.
• Regional Performance: Central and western regions showed rapid growth in retail sales. Key enterprises in Hainan, Liaoning, Shannxi, Anhui, Hunan, Qinghai, and Shandong reported growth rates of 19.3%, 18.3%, 16.3%, 15.8%, 15%, 15%, and 14% respectively.
• Popular Products: Gold and silver jewelry, digital products, and home appliances were in high demand. Gold and silver jewelry sales saw a significant increase due to wedding celebrations and lower gold prices.
• O2O Model Impact: The O2O model is expected to drive valuation recovery in the retail industry. Cooperation with Tencent is highlighted as a win-win strategy, with the mobile Internet market offering new opportunities.
• Investment Recommendations: The report recommends focusing on companies with nationwide expansion and regional leaders with low valuations and large market shares. Notable mentions include Beijing Wangfujing Department Store (600859), Rainbow Department Store (002419), Hunan Friendship & Apollo (002277), Better Life (002251), Chongqing Department Store (600729), Hefei Department Store (000417), Changchun Eurasia Group (600697), and Wuhan Department Store (000501).
• Sentiment Recovery: Industry sentiment is expected to slightly improve in the second half of the year, with pressures from rent and labor costs alleviating, and profit margins recovering. This will help industry leaders recover their valuations.

2. Investment Strategy Weekly Report

• Market Correction: The A-share market experienced a correction before the National Day holiday, primarily due to profit-taking in free trade zone, land reform, and financial reform-related stocks.
• Global Market Impact: Corrections also hit the U.S. and Japanese stock markets due to the U.S. government shutdown and debt concerns.
• Investment Focus: The report advises investors to remain cautious and to focus on pharmaceuticals, mass consumption, and growth stocks. It is bearish on cyclicals due to potential disappointment in Q4 economic data.
• Reasons for Caution in Q4:
  1. Economic data may worsen in Q4 due to weak demand and the base effect.
  2. Real estate regulation and correction are re-emerging, making the real estate industry chain a concern.
  3. U.S. debt talks and government shutdown may have short-term impacts on financial markets.
  4. Reform is beneficial for emerging industries but may negatively affect traditional ones such as banks, real estate, petrochemicals, coal, and raw materials, with potential negative impacts on the Shanghai Composite Index.

3. Market Data Overview

• HK Indices:

  • HSI: Last price 23,178.85, change 204.9, % change 0.89
  • Finance: Last price 31,904.57, change 186.6, % change 0.59
  • Properties: Last price 30,573.01, change 277.1, % change 0.91
  • Utilities: Last price 51,047.14, change 383.9, % change 0.76
  • Commerce & Industry: Last price 13,669.27, change 170.1, % change 1.26
  • HSCEI: Last price 10,534.94, change 107.7, % change 1.03
  • HSCCI: Last price 4,545.17, change 59.38, % change 1.32
  • HKSPGEM: Last price 461.51, change 0.13, % change 0.03

• World Indices:

  • FTSE 100: Last price 6,365.83, change -71.45, % change -1.11
  • DAX 30: Last price 8,555.89, change -35.69, % change -0.42
  • CAC 40: Last price 4,133.53, change -32.05, % change -0.77
  • DJIA: Last price 14,776.53, change -159.71, % change -1.07
  • S&P500: Last price 1,655.45, change -20.67, % change -1.23
  • Nasdaq Composite: Last price 3,694.83, change -75.54, % change -2.00
  • Nikkei 225: Last price 13,894.61, change 41.29, % change 0.30

• Asia-Pacific Indices:

  • KOSPI: Last price 2,002.76, change 8.34, % change 0.42
  • TWSE: Last price 8,375.65, change 41.99, % change 0.50
  • STI: Last price 3,146.50, change 9.91, % change 0.32
  • India BSE 30: Last price 19,983.61, change 88.51, % change 0.44
  • S&P/ASX 200: Last price 5,130.40, change -19.05, % change -0.37

4. Commodity and Currency Data

• Global Commodity Prices:

  • Brent Oil: Last price 110.32, change 0.49, % change 0.45
  • Gold: Last price 1,320.8, change 1.54, % change 0.12
  • LME Aluminum: Last price 1,865.0, change 12.00, % change 0.65
  • LME Copper: Last price 7,239.5, change -5.50, % change -0.08
  • BDI: Last price 2,146.0, change 31.00, % change 1.47
  • API Coal: Last price 82.10, change -0.40, % change -0.48

• Exchange and Currency:

  • USD/RMB: Last price 6.14, change -0.01, % change -0.16
  • USD/HKD: Last price 7.75, change 0.00, % change 0.00
  • 1-YR RMB NDF: Last price 6.18, change 0.00, % change 0.00
  • EUR/USD: Last price 135.95, change 0.22, % change 0.16
  • 3-M Libor: Last price 0.52, change 0.00, % change 0.00
  • 3-M Shibor: Last price 4.67, change 0.00, % change 0.00
  • 10 YR US T-Note Yield: Last price 2.63, change 0.01, % change 0.38

5. Stock Recommendations and Performance

• Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods:

  • 589 (Ports): Rating Neutral, Latest Price 6.26 HKD, Target Price 5.30 HKD, Upside Potential -15%
  • 1880 (Belle): Rating Buy, Latest Price 11.72 HKD, Target Price 16.39 HKD, Upside Potential 40%
  • 1368 (Xstep): Rating Neutral, Latest Price 3.82 HKD, Target Price 4.00 HKD, Upside Potential 5%
  • 2020 (Anta Sports): Rating Neutral, Latest Price 11.14 HKD, Target Price 9.14 HKD, Upside Potential -18%
  • 1361 (361 Degrees): Rating Neutral, Latest Price 2.08 HKD, Target Price 1.45 HKD, Upside Potential -30%
  • 1968 (Peak Sport): Rating Neutral, Latest Price 2.00 HKD, Target Price 1.48 HKD, Upside Potential -26%
  • 2331 (Li Ning): Rating Buy, Latest Price 6.80 HKD, Target Price 5.20 HKD, Upside Potential -24%
  • 3818 (China Dongxiang): Rating Buy, Latest Price 1.30 HKD, Target Price 1.47 HKD, Upside Potential 13%
  • 953 (Meike): Rating Neutral, Latest Price 0.43 HKD, Target Price 0.30 HKD, Upside Potential -30%
  • 1234 (China Lilang): Rating Buy, Latest Price 4.99 HKD, Target Price 5.25 HKD, Upside Potential 5%

• Metals & Mining:

  • 1818 (Zhaojin Mining): Rating Neutral, Latest Price 6.74 HKD, Target Price 6.00 HKD, Upside Potential -11%
  • 2899 (Zijin Mining): Rating Neutral, Latest Price 1.80 HKD, Target Price 1.69 HKD, Upside Potential -6%
  • 358 (Jiangxi Copper): Rating Buy, Latest Price 14.78 HKD, Target Price 15.20 HKD, Upside Potential 3%
  • 3993 (Cmoc): Rating Neutral, Latest Price 3.01 HKD, Target Price 3.10 HKD, Upside Potential 3%
  • 2600 (Chalco): Rating Sell, Latest Price 2.77 HKD, Target Price 1.60 HKD, Upside Potential -42%
  • 1378 (China Hongqiao): Rating Buy, Latest Price 4.70 HKD, Target Price 5.80 HKD, Upside Potential 23%
  • 486 (Rusal): Rating Sell, Latest Price 2.37 HKD, Target Price 2.03 HKD, Upside Potential -14%

• Auto & Others:

  • 1211 (Byd Company): Rating Neutral, Latest Price 37.70 HKD, Target Price 13.00 HKD, Upside Potential -66%
  • 489 (Dongfeng Group): Rating Buy, Latest Price 11.18 HKD, Target Price 14.17 HKD, Upside Potential 27%
  • 175 (Geely Auto): Rating Buy, Latest Price 4.41 HKD, Target Price 5.04 HKD, Upside Potential 14%
  • 2333 (Greatwall Motor): Rating Neutral, Latest Price 44.40 HKD, Target Price 38.62 HKD, Upside Potential -13%
  • 1114 (Brilliance Chi): Rating Buy, Latest Price 12.06 HKD, Target Price 12.00 HKD, Upside Potential -1%
  • 425 (Minth Group): Rating Buy, Latest Price 14.96 HKD, Target Price 13.20 HKD, Upside Potential -12%
  • 1728 (Zhengtong Auto): Rating Buy, Latest Price 5.20 HKD, Target Price 5.85 HKD, Upside Potential 13%
  • 881 (Trinity): Rating Buy, Latest Price 2.75 HKD, Target Price 4.63 HKD, Upside Potential 68%
  • 873 (C Taifeng Bed): Rating Buy, Latest Price 1.91 HKD, Target Price 2.86 HKD, Upside Potential 50%
  • 1234 (China Lilang): Rating Buy, Latest Price 4.99 HKD, Target Price 5.25 HKD, Upside Potential 5%

• Oil & Gas:

  • 857 (Petro China): Rating Buy, Latest Price 8.68 HKD, Target Price 10.55 HKD, Upside Potential 22%
  • 386 (Sinopec Corp): Rating Buy, Latest Price 6.23 HKD, Target Price 7.20 HKD, Upside Potential 16%
  • 883 (Cnooc): Rating Buy, Latest Price 16.10 HKD, Target Price 17.00 HKD, Upside Potential 6%
  • 603 (China Oil & Gas): Rating Neutral, Latest Price 1.20 HKD, Target Price 1.45 HKD, Upside Potential 21%
  • 342 (Newocean Energy): Rating Buy, Latest Price 4.95 HKD, Target Price 5.30 HKD, Upside Potential 7%
  • 268 (Unitedenergy Gp): Rating Buy, Latest Price 1.27 HKD, Target Price 1.59 HKD, Upside Potential 25%
  • 3948 (Yitai Coal): Rating Buy, Latest Price 14.30 HKD, Target Price 25.10 HKD, Upside Potential 76%

• Property:

  • 688 (China Overseas): Rating Buy, Latest Price 23.55 HKD, Target Price 22.56 HKD, Upside Potential -4%
  • 410 (Soho China): Rating Neutral, Latest Price 6.62 HKD, Target Price 6.42 HKD, Upside Potential -3%
  • 813 (Shimao Property): Rating Neutral, Latest Price 19.14 HKD, Target Price 16.70 HKD, Upside Potential -13%
  • 1109 (China Res Land): Rating Buy, Latest Price 5.55 HKD, Target Price 4.20 HKD, Upside Potential -24%
  • 2777 (R&F Properties): Rating Buy, Latest Price 13.60 HKD, Target Price 13.90 HKD, Upside Potential 2%
  • 960 (Longfor Ppt): Rating Buy, Latest Price 9.94 HKD, Target Price 12.20 HKD, Upside Potential 23%
  • 1918 (Sunac): Rating Buy, Latest Price 5.49 HKD, Target Price 6.66 HKD, Upside Potential 21%

• Consumer Discretionary:

  • 3308 (Golden Eagle): Rating Neutral, Latest Price 12.70 HKD, Target Price 13.50 HKD, Upside Potential 6%
  • 1833 (Intime): Rating Buy, Latest Price 8.58 HKD, Target Price 9.62 HKD, Upside Potential 12%
  • 777 (Netdragon): Rating Buy, Latest Price 23.55 HKD, Target Price 26.27 HKD, Upside Potential 12%
  • 354 (Chinasoft): Rating Neutral, Latest Price 2.35 HKD, Target Price 2.00 HKD, Upside Potential -15%
  • 268 (Kingdee): Rating Neutral, Latest Price 2.53 HKD, Target Price 1.40 HKD, Upside Potential -45%

• Alternative Energy:

  • 3800 (Gcl-Poly Energy): Rating Buy, Latest Price 2.54 HKD, Target Price 1.97 HKD, Upside Potential -22%
  • 712 (Comtec Solar): Rating Buy, Latest Price 1.97 HKD, Target Price 1.76 HKD, Upside Potential -11%
  • 750 (Singyes Solar): Rating Buy, Latest Price 8.47 HKD, Target Price 9.40 HKD, Upside Potential 11%
  • 2208 (Goldwind): Rating Buy, Latest Price 5.70 HKD, Target Price 5.52 HKD, Upside Potential -3%
  • 916 (Longyuan Power): Rating Neutral, Latest Price 8.29 HKD, Target Price 8.16 HKD, Upside Potential -2%
  • 1798 (Datang Power): Rating Neutral, Latest Price 1.55 HKD, Target Price 1.99 HKD, Upside Potential 28%
  • 816 (Huadian Fuxin): Rating Buy, Latest Price 2.34 HKD, Target Price 2.99 HKD, Upside Potential 28%
  • 579 (Jingneng): Rating Buy, Latest Price 2.96 HKD, Target Price 3.62 HKD, Upside Potential 22%

• Food & Beverage:

  • 322 (Tingyi): Rating Buy, Latest Price 19.86 HKD, Target Price 23.10 HKD, Upside Potential 16%
  • 2319 (Mengniu Dairy): Rating Buy, Latest Price 36.10 HKD, Target Price 33.26 HKD, Upside Potential -8%