A-share Research Highlights Summary
Core Content Overview
This document provides a comprehensive analysis of the Chinese A-share market, focusing on the property market, power industry, and other sectors. It also includes key financial indicators and stock recommendations from China Merchants Securities (HK).
1. China Property Market
Key Points
- New Home Transactions: In first-tier cities, new home transactions showed recovery. In second-tier cities, the Ministry of Housing and Urban and Rural Development (MOHURD) called for stricter implementation of property purchase restrictions in cities such as Nanjing and Zhengzhou.
- Market Expectations: Continuous rise in land and house prices in core cities has led to increased market expectations for property price gains.
- Policy Outlook: With the economy recovering, real estate curbing policies are expected to be tightened. Long-term adjustment and control policies will remain in place, and property tax expansion is likely to proceed.
- Stock Recommendations:
- China Vanke
- Wuhan Langold Real Estate
- Yango Group
- RiseSun Real Estate Development
- China Fortune Land Development
- Hubei Fuxing Science And Technology
Data Summary
- Transaction Trends (Sep. 7-13):
- New home transaction volume: Up in 10 cities, down in 10 cities.
- Second-hand home transaction volume: Up in 6 cities, down in 4 cities.
- Housing Price Index (August):
- 100-city Housing Price Index rose 0.92% MoM and 8.61% YoY.
- Average new home price: RMB10,442 per square meter.
- Price increases in 71 cities, price decreases in 29 cities.
- Land Market (August):
- Total land supply: 42.08 million square meters, down 9% YoY.
- Housing land supply: Down 7% YoY.
- Land transaction area: 28.57 million square meters, down 18% YoY.
- Housing land transaction area: Down 1% YoY.
- Land transaction value: RMB136.3 billion, up 53% YoY.
- Housing land transaction value: Up 56% YoY.
- Average floor price: RMB2,397 per square meter, up 86% YoY.
2. Power Industry
Key Points
- Power Consumption: Total power consumption in the first eight months of 2013 grew 6.8% YoY to 3.5 trillion kWh.
- August Growth: Power consumption in August rose 13.7% YoY to 510.3 billion kWh.
- Capacity Utilization: Average utilization hours of total installed capacity decreased by 57 hours from the previous year.
- Industry-Specific Consumption:
- First industry: -0.5% YoY
- Second industry: 6.3% YoY
- Third industry: 10.7% YoY
- Households: 7.5% YoY
- Cumulative Power Consumption:
- Industrial: 6.2% YoY to 2.5222 trillion kWh
- Light industries: 5.8% YoY to 420.3 billion kWh
- Heavy industries: 6.3% YoY to 2.1018 trillion kWh
- Installed Capacity:
- Total: 1.15576 billion kW, up 9.8% YoY.
- Hydropower: 228.41 million kW, up 12.1% YoY.
- Thermal power: 838.69 million kW, up 7.7% YoY.
- Nuclear power: 14.61 million kW, up 16.7% YoY.
- Infrastructure Investment:
- Total: RMB207.6 billion
- Hydropower: RMB82.8 billion
- Thermal power: RMB52.4 billion
- Nuclear power: RMB34.7 billion
- Grids: RMB223.6 billion
Stock Recommendations
- Outstanding Growth Potential:
- SDIC Power Holdings
- Sichuan Chuantou Energy
- China Yangtze Power
- Industry Leaders with Low Valuation:
- Huaneng Power International
- Huadian Power International
- GD Power Development
3. Market Indices
Hong Kong Indices
| Index |
Last Price |
Change |
% Change |
| HSI |
23,180.52 |
-71.89 |
-0.31 |
| Finance |
32,181.64 |
-175.0 |
-0.54 |
| Properties |
30,184.37 |
+78.99 |
+0.26 |
| Utilities |
50,633.53 |
+201.8 |
+0.40 |
| Commerce & Industry |
13,590.74 |
-35.96 |
-0.26 |
| HSCEI |
10,650.64 |
-55.99 |
-0.52 |
| HSCCI |
4,483.09 |
+21.76 |
+0.49 |
| HKSPGEM |
432.25 |
-0.99 |
-0.23 |
World Indices
| Index |
Last Price |
Change |
% Change |
| FTSE 100 |
6,570.17 |
-52.69 |
-0.80 |
| DAX 30 |
8,596.95 |
-16.05 |
-0.19 |
| CAC 40 |
4,145.51 |
-6.71 |
-0.16 |
| DJIA |
15,529.73 |
+34.95 |
+0.23 |
| S&P500 |
1,704.76 |
+7.16 |
+0.42 |
| Nasdaq Composite |
3,745.70 |
+27.85 |
+0.75 |
| Nikkei 225 |
14,311.67 |
-93.00 |
-0.65 |
Asia-Pacific Indices
| Index |
Last Price |
Change |
% Change |
| KOSPI |
2,005.58 |
-7.79 |
-0.39 |
| TWSE |
8,249.78 |
-5.56 |
-0.07 |
| STI |
3,180.92 |
+1.44 |
+0.05 |
| India BSE 30 |
19,804.03 |
+61.56 |
+0.31 |
| S&P/ASX 200 |
5,251.24 |
+3.25 |
+0.06 |
4. Commodity Prices
| Commodity |
Last Price |
Change |
% Change |
| Brent Oil |
108.67 |
-2.21 |
-1.99 |
| Gold |
1,306.7 |
-3.94 |
-0.30 |
| LME Aluminum |
1,777.5 |
-4.50 |
-0.25 |
| LME Copper |
7,075.0 |
-10.00 |
-0.14 |
| BDI |
1,740.0 |
+89.00 |
+5.39 |
| API Coal |
85.25 |
+0.75 |
+0.89 |
5. Currency and Market Data
| Currency/Market |
Last Price |
Change |
% Change |
| USD/RMB |
6.16 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| USD/HKD |
7.75 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 1-YR RMB NDF |
6.21 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| EUR/USD |
133.57 |
+0.19 |
+0.14 |
| 3-M Libor |
0.52 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 3-M Shibor |
4.66 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 10 YR US T-Note Yield |
2.85 |
-0.02 |
-0.70 |
6. Stock Pool Update (Selected Stocks)
Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods
- 589 (Ports): Rating: Neutral, Latest Price: HKD5.22, Target Price: HKD5.30, Upside Potential: 2%
- 1880 (Belle): Rating: Buy, Latest Price: HKD11.36, Target Price: HKD16.39, Upside Potential: 44%
- 1368 (Xstep): Rating: Neutral, Latest Price: HKD3.59, Target Price: HKD4.00, Upside Potential: 11%
- 2020 (Anta Sports): Rating: Neutral, Latest Price: HKD9.54, Target Price: HKD9.14, Upside Potential: -4%
- 1361 (361 Degrees): Rating: Neutral, Latest Price: HKD1.82, Target Price: HKD1.45, Upside Potential: -20%
- 1968 (Peak Sport): Rating: Neutral, Latest Price: HKD1.76, Target Price: HKD1.48, Upside Potential: -16%
- 2331 (Li Ning): Rating: Buy, Latest Price: HKD5.68, Target Price: HKD5.20, Upside Potential: -8%
- 3818 (China Dongxiang): Rating: Buy, Latest Price: HKD1.18, Target Price: HKD1.47, Upside Potential: 25%
- 953 (Meike): Rating: Neutral, Latest Price: HKD0.41, Target Price: HKD0.30, Upside Potential: -27%
- 1234 (China Lilang): Rating: Buy, Latest Price: HKD4.32, Target Price: HKD5.25, Upside Potential: 22%
Metals & Mining
- 1818 (Zhaojin Mining): Rating: Neutral, Latest Price: HKD6.75, Target Price: HKD6.00, Upside Potential: -11%
- 2899 (Zijin Mining): Rating: Neutral, Latest Price: HKD1.85, Target Price: HKD1.69, Upside Potential: -9%
- 358 (Jiangxi Copper): Rating: Buy, Latest Price: HKD15.78, Target Price: HKD15.20, Upside Potential: -4%
- 3993 (Cmoc): Rating: Neutral, Latest Price: HKD3.00, Target Price: HKD3.10, Upside Potential: 3%
- 2600 (Chalco): Rating: Sell, Latest Price: HKD2.84, Target Price: HKD1.60, Upside Potential: -44%
- 1378 (China Hongqiao): Rating: Buy, Latest Price: HKD4.43, Target Price: HKD5.80, Upside Potential: 31%
- 486 (Rusal): Rating: Sell, Latest Price: HKD2.35, Target Price: HKD2.03, Upside Potential: -14%
- 3948 (Yitai Coal): Rating: Buy, Latest Price: HKD15.20, Target Price: HKD25.10, Upside Potential: 65%
- 1088 (China Shenhua): Rating: Buy, Latest Price: HKD25.50, Target Price: HKD36.40, Upside Potential: 43%
7. Key Notes
- Economic Data Watch:
- HK: No data
- US: MBA Mortgage Index on 2013/09/18
- Stock Performance:
- 1-Month Performance: Varies by stock, with some showing positive and others negative changes.
8. Summary
The A-share market analysis highlights a mixed performance in the property and power sectors. The property market shows signs of recovery in first-tier cities and increased policy scrutiny, while the power industry benefits from weather effects and policy support. The document also includes key financial indicators and stock recommendations across various sectors, emphasizing the importance of monitoring economic data and commodity prices for investment decisions.
