OECD就业展望2025_309页_8mb

OECD Employment Outlook 2025 Summary: Can We Get Through the Demographic Crunch?

Core Content

The OECD Employment Outlook 2025 highlights the growing challenge of population ageing and its profound implications for labour markets, economic growth, and social cohesion in OECD countries. The report shifts the focus from a "job shortage" to a "labour shortage," emphasizing that the shrinking working-age population will increasingly constrain the ability of economies to sustain growth and meet the needs of an aging society.

Main Viewpoints

• Demographic Shifts: Fertility rates have declined significantly, leading to a shrinking working-age population. This trend is expected to continue until 2060, with the old-age dependency ratio projected to reach 52% in the OECD by 2060, up from 19% in 1980.

• Labour Market Tightness: Despite a post-pandemic slowdown, labour shortages persist in many sectors. In the euro area, 1 in 6 firms in industry and 1 in 4 in services cited lack of labour as a key constraint on production in April 2025.

• Productivity and Growth: Productivity growth is critical to offset the effects of an aging population. The report warns that, at current productivity rates, GDP per capita growth in the OECD area could slow by 40% by 2060, from 1% in 2006–19 to 0.6% in 2024–60. Most OECD countries, except Ireland and the United States, would experience a decline in growth unless action is taken.

• AI and Technology: While AI has the potential to enhance productivity, it is not a substitute for human workers. AI can improve working conditions and support older workers, but its benefits are not evenly distributed. The report stresses the need for trustworthy use of AI and digital technologies to ensure inclusive growth.

• Social and Economic Impact: Ageing populations are expected to increase income and wealth disparities, especially in favor of older generations. This raises concerns about equity and intergenerational fairness.

Key Information

• Youth Disparities: In nine OECD countries, over 15% of youth are in the NEET category (not in employment, education or training), indicating a significant waste of potential. Policies to reduce school dropouts and improve education and training are vital to mobilize this group.

• Women in the Labour Market: Despite progress, women are still underrepresented in higher-paying and more prestigious roles. Closing the gender employment gap could increase GDP per capita growth by 0.2 percentage points, with equalizing hours worked potentially doubling that impact.

• Migrants and Workforce: Regular migration is crucial for sustaining working-age populations and addressing labour shortages. Increasing net migration rates to historic levels could improve GDP per capita growth by 0.08 percentage points in the median OECD country.

• Older Workers: The report underscores the importance of older workers in maintaining economic growth. Encouraging them to work longer, improving health and skills, and creating age-friendly workplaces are essential. In some countries, reducing the retirement rate to the lowest OECD levels could boost GDP per capita growth by 0.2 percentage points, with an additional 0.1 percentage point if the gender gap among older workers is also addressed.

• Policy Recommendations:

  • Promote youth employment through education reforms and better school-to-work transitions.
  • Support regular migration with clear pathways and international cooperation.
  • Close the gender employment gap by ensuring equal pay, improving access to STEM fields, and supporting caregiving.
  • Encourage older workers to remain in the workforce through lifelong learning, flexible working conditions, and health support.
  • Enhance job mobility and employability across the life course.

Conclusion

The demographic crunch presents a major challenge to economic and social sustainability. However, with strategic and inclusive policies, OECD countries can harness the potential of underrepresented groups and older workers to sustain growth and improve living standards. The report calls for bold and comprehensive action to ensure fairness, productivity, and social cohesion in the face of an aging population.

Key Statistics

• Old-age dependency ratio: 52% in 2060 (up from 19% in 1980).
• GDP per capita growth: Expected to slow by 40% in the OECD area by 2060.
• NEET rates: Over 15% in nine OECD countries.
• GDP boost from closing gender employment gap: 0.2 percentage points annually.
• Potential GDP boost from migration: 0.08 percentage points in the median OECD country.

References

• The report is based on OECD simulations and international data.
• It includes contributions from national government delegates, OECD Directorates, and experts in various fields.
• The infographic and statistical annex provide visual and numerical support for the key findings.

Policy Implications

• Governments must move beyond pension reform and focus on skills development, health support, and age-friendly policies.
• A comprehensive strategy is needed to mobilize untapped talent and ensure equitable growth.
• Job mobility and digital transformation are key to adapting to demographic changes and maintaining economic resilience.