2025大飞机产业链研究_万亿赛道爆发_三足鼎立时代开启-深企投-2025.1_101页_3mb

Deep Enterprise Investment Industry Research Institute is a high-end think tank under Deep Enterprise Investment Group, focusing on industrial development and serving regional economy. It is committed to providing industrial development placement solutions to various regions. Headquartered in Shenzhen, its services cover most major provinces and cities across China. The institute gathers a team of experts in economic and industrial research, led by postgraduate students from 985 universities, and connects with academic experts to provide intellectual support to governments and institutions nationwide.

The institute collaborates with its group's service network to offer targeted services to clients such as government bodies, state-owned platforms, industrial parks, and financial institutions.

• Government Agencies: Provides services including Five-Year Plans (for sectors like development and reform, industry, commerce, tourism), industrial planning, special topic research for recruitment, project packaging/capitalization, and project evaluation (focusing on risk assessment and due diligence).
• State-Owned Platform Clients: Supports the transformation of local state-owned investment platforms towards capital investment operations. Focuses on industrial intelligence, development planning, and due diligence for investment targets, particularly advanced productive forces and key industry sectors.
• Industrial Park Clients: Offers services including park industrial planning, product pricing strategies, design solutions, operation plans, channel strategies, brand promotion, and industrial training.
• Financial Institutions: Provides in-depth industry research, investment analysis, and target due diligence for institutional investors, reducing information asymmetry and improving investment accuracy.

C919 Large Aircraft Market Development

• Commercialization Milestones: C919 has entered规模化 commercial operation. Over 1,400 orders (including confirmed and intent orders) were placed as of the end of 2024, with contract values exceeding RMB 1 trillion. Globally recognized as part of a potential "three-way balancing" against Boeing and Airbus.
• Market Pace: Historically slow production (minimal initial deliveries). Current production capacity targets are 150 units/year by 2027 (final phase), with peak delivery years expected in the mid-2020s. 2024 saw increased production (16 deliveries) and operational expansion.
• Market Expansion: Goals include receiving EASA certification by Y 2025 and eventually expanding into European airspace, initialized strong operational performance (over 1.7 million flight hours cumulative by Dec 2024).
• Global Market Outlook: 20-Year forecast by COMAC indicates global aircraft market growth: 48,931 planes needed by Y2043 (CAAC predicts ~9,323 planes for the Chinese market valued at ~US$1.5T, around 21.3% of global share). C919 family is poised to capture significant global market share (~5% revenue probability by 2030).

Industry Chain Development

The C919 value chain involves complex international/global supply chains. Aircraft parts include: body structure (domestic assembly, reliance on foreign materials/components for engines & systems); engines (development challenges, reliance on LEAP-1C); and avionics systems (highly dependent on foreign suppliers despite joint ventures).

• Domestic Progress: Significant progress in final assembly (~65% domestic) and components for body structure. Slow progress in engine development (CJ-1000A project lagging) and avionics. Breakthroughs in materials (aluminum-lithium alloys, titanium alloys, composites).
• Core Challenges: Engine development remains the critical bottleneck. Achieving complete system integration and qualification is complex, requiring significant collaboration with foreign partners.

Domestic Industrial Policies

Central government policies (Five-Year Plan, industrial guidance) establish goals like achieving full Commercial Operations Suitability Certification (COS) and enhancing engine technology. Individual regions (ES/Jiangsu/Shanghai/Sichuan/ Shaanxi/Mo.../Liaoning) are implementing localization (50%-65% targets) and supporting innovation within specific sub-chains, often setting up specialized industrial parks/suppliers.

Regional Industrial Clusters

A "big aircraft industrial chain" cluster is developing in East China (primarily Zhejiang/Jiangsu/Shanghai) and Central China. Clusters in West China (Shaanxi/Sichuan) and Northeast China (Liaoning) support specific components/capabilities. Each region brings unique industrial strengths and government support mechanisms to the overall value chain.

Summary

The industry research highlights Deep Enterprises' potential in regional economic planning and complex industrial research/delivery. The primary focus is on the booming demand for C919 large aircraft, global market opportunities, and China's industrial strengths/weaknesses. Key achievements include progress in aircraft assembly components and materials, along with selective technology development (even if still reliant on imports for critical parts like engines). The pathway forward depends significantly on complex certification processes (international airworthiness), continued engine development, and stronger global partnerships.