固收：海外“再通胀”不稳，防守反击正当时-240429-东吴证券-15页_1011kb

Summary of East Wu Securities Fixed Income Weekly Report (April 29, 2024)

The report analyzes recent market conditions, focusing on overseas "re-inflation" trends, domestic A-share and bond markets, and investment strategies. Key points include:

• Overseas Market: The US market ended a three-week stock-bond double decline, entering a "re-inflation" phase where stocks rose while bond yields fell due to a core PCE acceleration. This situation is viewed as unstable, with risks of high volatility, potential economic hard landing, and geopolitical uncertainties, notably in oil prices and OPEC+ production plans.

• Domestic Market: A-shares and Hong Kong stocks showed positive movement, driven by overseas risk asset recovery. Suggested sustainable investment themes include low air economy, solid-state batteries, and calc leasing. Recommended sectors align with "re-inflation," such as metals, lithium batteries, and pig-related industries.

• Investment Strategies: In bonds and convertible bonds, the strategy involves increasing convertible bond positions while shifting from value-oriented to growth-oriented stocks to maintain a balance between defense and offense. A-li sectors are advised for core holdings, considering their size and volatility characteristics.

• Risks: High volatility in equities, credit defaults, liquidity tightening, equity oversold conditions, geopolitical crises, and policy surprises are key risks to monitor.

This summary is based on the week ending April 26, 2024, incorporating market data and analyst views from East Wu Securities.