2025-05-20-IMF-家庭去杠杆化_国际惯例_泰国（英）_22页_609kb

Summary of Household Deleveraging: International Practices for Thailand

Introduction and Context

Household debt in Thailand has been historically high and surged during the COVID-19 pandemic, reaching a household debt-to-GDP ratio of 95.5% in 2021. This over-indebtedness poses risks to financial stability, growth, and consumption. The IMF report examines current deleveraging measures in Thailand and draws lessons from international experiences, focusing on reducing unsecured loans and overall household debt through a comprehensive approach.

Thailand's Debt Situation and Initial Measures

• Key Risk Indicators: Household debt peaked at 95.5% of GDP in 2021, driven by factors including early borrowing, low financial literacy, insufficient emergency savings, and lack of debt management facilities.
• Policy Responses Since Pandemic:
  • Broad-based relief measures during COVID-19 included reducing minimum repayments, extending loans, and providing debt relief.
  • Debt Clinics for debt restructuring with banks and non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs).
  • Responsible Lending guidelines to assess affordability and offer restructured terms.
  • The "Khun Soo, Rao Chuay" project (2024) reduced repayments for specific loans and forgave interest under certain conditions.
  • Outcomes: Slow deleveraging, delayed credit recovery, and increased financial literacy efforts, but most debt remained on household balance sheets.

Four Case Studies (Brazil, Korea, Malaysia, Hungary)

• Brazil: Implemented the Desenrola program (2023–2024) with debt auctions, target assistance for low-income households, and caps on credit card interest, leading to a slight decline in DSTI but no significant reduction in overall debt.
• Korea: Addressed a 2002 credit card crisis through measures like debt workouts, a bad bank, and personal bankruptcy, resulting in lower delinquency but persistent high debt.
• Malaysia: Post-GFC measures included tiered credit card interest rates, stricter lending requirements, and debt caps, contributing to a moderate decline in household debt-to-GDP ratio.
• Hungary: Focused on currency-denominated debts and foreign exchange conversion during GFC recovery, but policies like bank levies and fiscal costs negatively impacted banking sector stability and growth.

Other National and International Experiences

• Various nations used debt forgiveness programs, financial literacy Campaigns, and consumer protection regulations (e.g., Ireland's insolvency acts, U.S. bankruptcy laws) to manage over-indebtedness.
• Key examples included Hong Kong's Individual Voluntary Arrangements, Ireland's debt relief notices, and large-scale forgiveness programs in Croatia and the Czech Republic.

Conclusions and Policy Recommendations

• A comprehensive, multi-pronged approach is necessary for deleveraging:
  • Ex-post measures: Strengthen personal debtor rehabilitation, insolvency arrangements, and debt restructuring programs while avoiding moral hazard.
  • Ex-ante measures: Enhance macroprudential policies, delegate regulatory oversight to NBFIs, and promote financial literacy.
• Deleveraging must be calibrated to avoid economic disruptions; too aggressive measures can impair banking sectors and slow growth.
• Recommendations include international best practices on responsibility lending, interest rate caps, and inclusive debt relief for vulnerable households.