20230924-东吴证券-烯烃行业周报_乙烷裂解和石脑油裂解盈利修复_CTO盈利边际回落_17页_2mb

报告摘要

Petroleum and Petrochemicals Weekly Analysis

Executive Summary

This report analyzes the petroleum and petrochemical industry as of September 2023, highlighting key trends in raw materials, profitability, and sector performance. Despite high oil prices, ethane cracking shows improved profit margins, while demand factors pressure overall sector valuations. The investment outlook remains positive due to potential demand improvements and cost advantages in specific routes.

Raw Material Price Trends

Key raw materials: Ethane prices fell, while propane, natural gas, crude oil, naphtha, and coal prices rose.
Relative prices: Ethane/Br dent crude oil ratio at 35th percentile, indicating a low relative price, while propane/Br dent crude ratio is stable.
Summary: Volatility in prices impacts profitability; most industrial inputs are near historical highs, affecting downstream sectors adversely.

Profitability Analysis

Oil-gas routes: Ethane cracking for ethylene saw increased profitability (up to $54,543/ton), outperforming naphtha cracking. PDH for propylene experienced profit declines due to narrower cost advantages.
Profit comparisons: Ethane route shows growing cost efficiencies, while traditional routes face margin compression under high oil prices, leading to recommendations for value reassessment of diversified operations.

C2 and C3 Sector Status

C2 sector: Product prices largely unstable, with ethylene, EG, and epoxy ethane showing gains, but overall downstream products remain near historical low value percentiles. Profit differences indicate challenges in achieving recovery.
C3 sector: Prices for propylene and PP rose, but overall profitability still low. PDH margins contract, reflecting market pressures.
Overall: C2 and C3 chains are mostly at historical lows, suggesting potential upside with demand strongens.

Investment Recommendations

Focus on companies with differentiated feedstock in high-oil-price environments: Satellite Chemical, East China Energy, Baofeng Energy, and select firms in the sector.
Positive outlook: Value reevaluation under demand-driven scenarios and cost advantages from ethane and coal-based routes.

Key Risks

Factors include delays in projects, weak demand, raw material price fluctuations, and capacity expansions.
Monitoring is necessary to assess scenarios for m argin improvements and external shocks.

展开完整摘要