深度报告-20230731-东吴证券-新澳股份-603889.SH-弱β强α的低估值毛纺龙头_份额提升成长可期_35页_1mb

Summary of New Aus Textile Research Report

Company Overview

New Aus Co., Ltd. (603889) is a leading player in the textile manufacturing sector, specializing in mohair and wool yarn production. Founded in 1991, the company has grown to become a global market leader in wool combed yarn and a significant player in cashmere yarn, with extensive operations in China, Australia, Italy, and the UK. The company's 30-year track record in mohair and wool demonstrates strong industry expertise. Key developments include the acquisition of UK-based Duncan in 2020 and the expansion of its mohair business through a subsidiary, driving diversification and revenue growth. The company boasts high market penetration, with domestic mohair yarn market share at approximately 12.46% and global wool yarn market share at 3.99%.

Market Position (Weak β)

The textile industry, particularly wool and mohair segments, exhibits slow growth and contraction due to shrinking global demand for wool (down 20% over 1990-2017) and mohair (stabilized after growth in 2017). New Aus operates in a fragmented yet concentrated market: wool yarn is more dispersed, with New Aus dominating 12.46% domestically and 3.99% globally; mohair yarn is more concentrated, with top three players (China State Cashmere, New Aus, Morocco) holding over 70% of domestic capacity. This weak beta environment offers stability, but growth potential is limited by industry saturation.

Growth Drivers (Strong α)

The company's alpha growth strategy focuses on scaling operations: wool yarn production is expanding via capacity investments in China and Vietnam (up to 21,000 spindles by 2025), supported by a "produce to promote" strategy to capture market share. Mohair yarn utilization is increasing, with current rates around 60%, offering significant upside if capacity reaches full utilization (~2500+ tons annually). The company broadened its "wide bandwidth" strategy in 2021 to enter lower-tier markets and enhance product diversity, targeting higher-margin opportunities. Key synergies include acquired UK-based Duncan, which aims to collaborate with cashmere operations for improved profitability. Expected outcomes: wool sales growth driven by capacity and market penetration, mohair benefits from increased volumes.

Financial Projections and Valuation

New Aus is projected to experience robust revenue and profit growth: 2023-2025 EPS forecast at ¥0.65, ¥0.77, ¥0.92, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13x, 11x, 9x. Revenue is expected to rise from ¥3.95 billion in 2022 to ¥6.33 billion in 2025 (CAGR ≈16-17%), while operating profitability increases due to higher capacity utilization. The current valuation is considered undervalued, warranting a "Buy" recommendation based on solid growth prospects and alpha potential.

Risks

Key risks include stochastic market demand fluctuations for textiles, significant volatility in raw material prices (like wool from Australia), and uncertainties in capacity expansion timelines, which could hinder performance if not met.