20250824-国贸期货-宏观专题报告_市场情绪改善_大宗商品或再迎反弹_9页_1015kb

Investigation Conclusion Analysis

Market sentiment improves potentially for another rally in commodity prices.

Key findings include:
International markets. The Federal Reserve's expectations for interest rate adjustments inject volatility into global markets, dampening the US dollar while boosting equity prices. US retail sales slowed moderately amidst cautious consumer spending influenced by inflation and trade costs, with the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index declining recently. The domestic US housing market remains sluggish due to persistently high mortgage rates, although new housing starts saw a slight rebound. Additionally, global instability persists due to geopolitical risks.

Domestic macroeconomic landscape shows weak growth momentum amid fiscal progresses. Fiscal expenditure budget progress accelerates significantly in China, with slight positive growth in revenue but directional income growth primarily driven by transaction taxes. Expenditure increases faster than revenue, with focus on key public areas such as healthcare and welfare ensured by fiscal policies whereas supply-side reforms continue to progress. This creates potential upside for commodity positioning should policies translate into mkt gains.