普华永道-2020年上半年全球运输与物流业最新动态、并购交易和战略联盟分析（英文）-2020.8-33页_2mb

Transport and Logistics Barometer: 2020 Mid-Year Analysis

Core Content

The Transport and Logistics Barometer provides a mid-year analysis of M&A deals, joint ventures and strategic alliances in the transport and logistics industry in 2020, highlighting the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the sector.

Main Points

1. Impact of the Pandemic

• Global Crisis: The pandemic has placed many transport and logistics (T&L) companies in crisis mode, despite the industry's traditionally low margins.
• Supply Chain Vulnerability: The crisis has exposed the fragility of global logistics networks, but globalization itself is not being questioned.
• Regional vs Global Effects: The impact of the crisis has varied across subsectors, with passenger transport being hit hardest, especially aviation.

2. M&A and Deal Activity

• Decline in Deals: In H1 2020, 92 deals were announced, a 28% decrease from H2 2019 and below the 5-year average of 125 deals per half year.
• Deal Value: Total deal value dropped to $29.9 billion, a 57% decline from the 5-year average. Average deal value fell to $324.7 million, a 43% decline.
• Infrastructure Focus: 4 out of 8 megadeals involved transport infrastructure, indicating a renewed interest in bottleneck assets like ports and intermodal terminals.

3. Sector Performance

• Passenger Transport:
  • Airlines and airports have faced severe revenue declines due to travel restrictions and quarantine measures.
  • IATA forecasts a 51% drop in passenger traffic for 2020.
  • Recovery is expected to be L-shaped, with no return to pre-crisis levels before 2023/24.
• Freight Transport and Logistics:
  • Mixed impact: Maritime shipping saw significant reductions in business volume, while rail freight was less affected.
  • Road freight saw a 40% revenue drop in May 2020.
  • Air freight faced a capacity crunch due to the loss of belly freight from passenger flights, leading to higher freight rates.
• Logistics and Trucking:
  • Most active subsector: Contributed 52% of all deals in H1 2020.
  • Digitalisation and online trade are key drivers for growth and consolidation.
  • Warehousing demand is rising due to increased e-commerce and digital supply chain trends.

4. Economic Context

• Global GDP Decline: Global GDP fell to -9.7% year-on-year in Q2 2020, reflecting the severe economic downturn.
• GVA Forecast: A -8.6% decline in GVA for the European freight transport and logistics industry is expected.
• Recovery Scenarios:
  • V-shaped: Recovery within one year.
  • U-shaped: Recovery over at least two years.
  • L-shaped: Drastic and prolonged recovery, with air transport expected to lag behind GDP recovery.

5. Strategic Alliances and Investment

• Strategic Alliances: These have declined significantly, especially in Q2 2020, due to the industry's focus on survival.
• Investor Behavior: Financial investors are becoming more involved in the sector, particularly in logistics and trucking.
• Government Support: Several state aid programs have been launched, including the German Economic Stabilization Fund acquiring a 20% stake in Lufthansa Group.

6. Future Challenges and Opportunities

• Airlines:
  • Face long-term challenges, including CO2 regulations, competition with low-cost carriers, and reorientation of business models.
  • Fuel costs are currently low, but may rise again.
  • Labor cost reductions are expected to be more permanent due to furloughs.
• Logistics:
  • Digitalisation is seen as a key driver for recovery.
  • Warehousing is becoming increasingly important, with a growing share of deals.
  • Nearshoring and insourcing are being discussed due to the crisis, potentially shifting demand from transhipment facilities to warehouses.
• Sustainability: While not a top priority during the crisis, sustainability initiatives are being explored, such as the hydrogen and power-to-fuel project involving multiple logistics and aviation players.

Key Information

• Total M&A Deals in H1 2020: 92, down 28% from H2 2019.
• Total Deal Value in H1 2020: $29.9 billion, down 57% from the 5-year average.
• Average Deal Value in H1 2020: $324.7 million, down 43% from the 5-year average.
• Major Deals:
  • Port & Free Zone World acquired DP World Ltd for $2.72 billion.
  • Li & Fung Ltd was taken private by Golden Lincoln Holdings for $1.38 billion.
  • Costco Wholesale Corp acquired Innovel Solutions Inc for $1.00 billion.
  • WPT Industrial Real Estate Investment Trust acquired a portfolio of 26 distribution & logistics properties for $0.73 billion.
  • AP Moller-Maersk A/S acquired Performance Team LLC for $0.55 billion.
• Infrastructure Deals: 4 out of 8 megadeals involved infrastructure targets.
• GVA Forecast for Europe: -8.6% decline in 2020.
• Air Transport Recovery: Expected to be L-shaped, with recovery to pre-crisis levels not anticipated until 2023/24.

Conclusion

The transport and logistics industry has been significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, with passenger transport suffering the most. While M&A activity has declined, infrastructure and logistics remain attractive investment areas. Digitalisation and e-commerce growth are expected to drive long-term consolidation and innovation in the sector. Sustainability is being addressed but not prioritized, and airlines face long-term challenges in recovery and restructuring.