普华永道-2021年上半年全球运输与物流业最新动态、并购交易和战略联盟分析（英）_37页_8mb

Transport & Logistics Barometer Summary

Core Content

The Transport & Logistics Barometer provides a mid-year analysis of the industry's performance and M&A activity in 2021. It highlights the return to normalcy in deal activity, the impact of the pandemic on different subsectors, and the ongoing recovery efforts across freight transport, logistics, and aviation. The report also discusses the role of debt issuance, the shift in focus towards sustainability and digitalisation, and the regional disparities in M&A activity.

Main Views

• M&A Activity:

  • A total of 132 deals were announced in the first half of 2021, returning to pre-crisis levels, with a total value of $95.2 billion.
  • The largest deal of the year was the $33.5 billion merger between Canadian National Railway (CN) and Kansas City Southern, creating the first direct rail link between the US, Canada, and Mexico.
  • Logistics and Trucking remained the most active subsector with 67 deals, followed by Shipping with 26 deals.
  • Megadeals (value >$1 billion) increased to 16 in H1 2021, compared to 1 in 2020.

• Freight Transport and Logistics:

  • The sector has shown resilience, with the WTO Goods Barometer at 109.7 (+21.6% YoY), indicating a strong trade recovery.
  • CEP (Courier, Express, and Parcel) has benefited significantly from the pandemic, driven by the rise in online shopping.
  • Last-mile delivery has become a key growth area, with new entrants and innovative solutions emerging.

• Shipping:

  • Experienced a strong upswing in 2021, marked by record-breaking charter rates due to container shortages and port congestion.
  • Port infrastructure has been a major focus in shipping M&A, with around 40% of deals related to it.
  • The Baltic Dry Index and RWI/ISL Container Throughput Index have both seen significant increases, indicating improved conditions.

• Aviation:

  • Passenger transport remains significantly below pre-pandemic levels, with revenues 50% below pre-crisis levels in the first half of 2021.
  • The cargo segment is nearly at an all-time high, with increased demand from global trade.
  • Airlines still face challenges, but CDS spreads have improved as travel restrictions ease.

• Debt Issuance:

  • T&L companies raised record amounts through bonds and syndicated loans to secure liquidity during the crisis.
  • Green bonds accounted for 10% of total debt issuance, with companies like PostNL and GLP investing in sustainable infrastructure.
  • The CDS spreads for airlines are still far above 2019 levels, indicating lingering concerns about recovery.

Key Information

• Deal Value Trends:

  • The median value/sales multiple for T&L targets increased to 1.4, up from 1.0 in 2020.
  • Freight-related targets saw a slight decrease in valuation, while passenger-related targets experienced a more than double increase in multiples.

• Regional Activity:

  • Asia and North America led in M&A activity, with North America surpassing Asia in total deal value due to the CN-Kansas City Southern deal.
  • Europe lagged behind, with 41 deals and $23.1 billion in total value, but five significant megadeals were announced.

• Strategic Alliances:

  • Strategic alliances and joint ventures have nearly come to a standstill, with a sharp decline in the number of deals since the start of the pandemic.
  • Codeshare agreements and other collaboration forms are at near-zero levels, as airlines focus on survival.

• Outlook:

  • H2 2021 is expected to see steady deal activity, with growth potential still high in a fragmented industry.
  • Digitalisation and sustainability are key drivers for future investments and acquisitions.
  • Supply chain visibility and resilience have become critical issues, especially after the pandemic exposed vulnerabilities.

• GVA Projections:

  • The European freight transport and logistics industry is forecasted to grow by 4.2% in 2021, under the most likely scenario of effective vaccination.
  • Passenger transport GVA is expected to grow by +14% in the best-case scenario and -0.9% in the worst-case scenario.

Appendix Highlights

• M&A Deals:

  • DSV Panalpina acquired Agility's GIL, becoming one of the largest freight forwarders.
  • Kuehne + Nagel acquired Apex International, a significant move in the Chinese market.
  • Deutsche Bahn may divest DB Schenker, and DSV is speculated to be interested in the acquisition.

• Investor Trends:

  • Financial investors are paying higher multiples than strategic investors in 2021.
  • Strategic alliances are at a low, with joint ventures declining since the pandemic began.

• Economic Context:

  • Real GDP for T&L correlated with global GDP trends, showing a strong rebound in Q2 2021.
  • The catch-up effect from H2 2020 has subsided, leading to a return to more normal M&A activity levels.

Conclusion

The transport and logistics industry is showing signs of recovery, with M&A activity returning to pre-crisis levels and a focus on resilience, transparency, and sustainability. While freight transport is performing better than passenger transport, the latter is still struggling with demand recovery and financial stress. The role of digitalisation and strategic investments is expected to continue shaping the industry in the coming months.