深度报告-20240402-国投证券-机械_政策催生_低空经济+_新生态_万亿级市场蓄势待发_26页_2mb

1. Introduction: Low-altitude economy (LA economy) is identified as a representative of new productive forces (new quality productivity) and a strategic choice. It combines various activities of manned and unmanned aerial vehicles to drive cross-industry development. LA economy is expected to become a trillion-yuan market by 2030 due to policy support and infrastructure improvements.

2. Policy Support: The 2024 government work report features LA economy as a new growth driver for the first time, marking a policy shift. The four-department scheme outlines goals to achieve commercial applications of eVTOL (electric vertical take-off and landing) aircraft by 2027 and a trillion-yuan market by 2030.

3. Infrastructure Development: Key to LA economy is the "three networks"—perception network, communication network, and computing network—which enable seamless flight management, data analysis, and intelligent operations. Following the U.S., China is accelerating air domain openness and infrastructure construction.

4. Application Scenarios: LA economy is being applied in logistics (e.g., food delivery via drones), emergency rescue, urban services, tourism, and transportation. By 2035, demand for air taxi drivers is expected to increase 164-fold, highlighting job opportunities.

5. Market Potential: The U.S. leads in LA economy infrastructure and eVTOL testing. Projections show a trillion-yuan market by 2030, with key players like Archer Aviation and Beta Technologies advancing eVTOL capabilities.

6. Investment Opportunities: Focus areas include infrastructure, eVTOL manufacturing, materials (e.g., carbon fiber), components, and testing services. Companies like DJI, Lightyear, and Embraer are actively involved. If eVTOL costs reduce, profitability could rise further.

7. Risks: Over-reliance on U.S. know-how, commercial application delays, and competitive risks are major challenges.

8. Recommendations: Prioritize active players, monitor eVTOL commercial deployments, and address reliance on imported materials.

Summary: LA economy is poised for significant growth by 2030, bolstered by policy and infrastructure. Current challenges include competition and marginalization, but the scale favors collaboration and application innovation.