20250328-中辉期货-棉花2025商品二季度报告_新季种植来临_震荡中等待方向指引_19页_3mb

中文总结

首先，报告指出，由于供需格局未能明显改善，2025年棉花价格仍处于“垃圾时间”区间震荡状态。基本面宽松将持续主导上半年行情，限于上方反弹空间。

其次，全球方面，虽然ENSO中性趋势和巴西增产可能利好棉价，但仍需警惕美国减产预期和天气因素叠加影响价格波动。需求方面受全球经济疲软牵制，导致价格尴尬。

国内方面，得益于新疆补贴政策，预计新年度产量将稳中有升，叠加库存高位运行，这让供需关系更加宽松。进口受关税政策压制明显，但成本仍在一定层面抑制价格进一步深化。

总体上，报告维持对上半年区间震荡的判断，认为围绕基数带来的供需失衡仍将引导价格波动，建议投资者关注宏观转向政策、天气生育变量及中美贸易博弈节奏。

English Summary

The report indicates that due to unchanged fundamental conditions, the 2025 cotton market remains in a so-called "junk time," experiencing an interval震荡. The supply-demand balance will continue to dictate the market transaction pattern.

On the global side, despite favorable ENSO neutral trends and Brazil's enhanced output, price may fluctuate amid U.S. export constraints. Aggregate demand pressures emanating from a sluggish global economy prevent sustained price rises.

On the domestic front, subsided inventories coinciding with machine-utilization levels range around lower YOY. Import curbs heighten the role of policy intervention, albeit fragmented, and supply from Xinjiang is expected to see moderate expansion, adding to the already ample inventory strain.

Thus, the forecast remains an interval interval view, oscillating amidst core equilibrium holes, influenced by policy winds and multinational agricultural tussles. Trading should focus on the path-dependent variance of supply and demand shifts.