20250721-华源证券-贵金属双周报_关税政策反复_黄金价格有望上行_12页_1mb

Summary of Precious Metals Report

Overview

• The report analyzes the precious metals sector, focusing on gold and silver, with an investment rating of "看好" (Positive) maintained.
• Recent prices show fluctuations: Gold increased slightly in London but decreased in Shanghai. Silver saw significant gains, and platinum and palladium rose substantially.
• Key drivers for potential gold price upward trend include uncertain tariff policies from Trump and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, alongside ongoing trade tensions and events.

Key Price Movements

• Over the past two weeks:
  • London现货黄金 changed by +0.70% to $3355.10/oz.
  • Shanghai gold fell slightly by -0.01% to 777.02 CNY/g.
  • London现货白银 increased by +3.75% to $38.27/oz.
  • Additional metals like palladium and platinum rose.

Primary Factors Influencing Prices

• Tariff risks: Trump's potential 10% tariffs on imports and EU countermeasures could increase uncertainties.
• Fed-related events: Recent confusion on Fed chair changes and rate cut expectations boosted gold due to inflation and safe-haven demand.
• Other stimuli: Plan to open US pension markets to gold and cryptocurrencies may boost long-term demand.

Upcoming Economic Events

• Focus on July 24: US PMI data.
• European Central Bank interest rate decision on July 24.
• Federal Reserve FOMC decision on July 31.

Investment Outlook

• Short-term: Expect gold prices to potentially rise due to tariff fluctuations and rate cut hopes.
• Long-term: "Double catalysis" from trade policies and Fed actions is expected to support gold stronger.
• Recommendation: Maintain positive stance; consider stocks like Shandong Gold and others for configuration opportunities.

Risk Factors

• Economic slowdown, policy tightening, heightened trade wars, or slower Fed policy progress could affect metal prices.

Note: This summary is based solely on the provided report excerpt.