20151013-大和证券-Asia_Pacific_Daily_47页_5mb_5mb

报告摘要

Asia Pacific Daily Summary - Daiwa Capital Markets

Core Content Overview

The document provides a detailed financial and market analysis of various companies and regions, focusing on performance, earnings forecasts, and investment ratings. It also outlines upcoming events and company roadshows.

Key Companies and Ratings

Tsingtao Brewery (168 HK)
- Rating: Underperform (unchanged)
- Target Price (TP): HKD32.00 (from HKD45.00)
- Share Price (9 Oct): HKD36.35
- Price Upside/Downside: -11.9%
- Reason for Rating: Weak Jan-Aug sales, ASP trends, and market-share losses at the high end due to aggressive promotions by rivals like AB-InBev.
- Key Assumptions: Revised 2015-17E EPS forecasts are 12-22% below Bloomberg consensus, with assumptions of higher selling expenses and lower ASPs.
- Performance:
  - Recurring profit: Declined by 12% YoY in 3Q15.
  - Revenue: Down 4% YoY in 3Q15.
  - EPS (adjusted fully-diluted): 1.305 (15E), 1.330 (16E), 1.332 (17E).
- Valuation: Revised TP is based on a 20x 2016E PER, which is a 10% discount to the stock's past-3-year average 12-month forward PER.
China Property
- Analyst: Jonas Kan
- Rating: Positive
- Page: P.7
- Focus: Analysis of home sales during the Golden Week, showing a 53% YoY surge from a low base, indicating a recovery in the real estate sector.
Kia Motors (000270 KS)
- Analyst: Sung Yop Chung
- Rating: Outperform
- Page: P.9
- Focus: Strong performance in SUVs and benefits from currency tailwinds.
ComfortDelGro Corp (CD SP)
- Analyst: Jame Osman
- Rating: Buy
- Page: P.13
- Focus: Resilient performance in Singapore taxi operations.
PTT Public Co Ltd (PTT TB)
- Analyst: Chak
- Rating: Buy
- Page: P.20
- Focus: Reaping benefits via automation.
Malaysia Plantation
- Analyst: Ong Keng Wee
- Rating: Neutral
- Page: P.19
- Focus: Inventory hits record high in September.
ENN Energy (2688 HK)
- Analyst: Dennis Ip
- Page: P.30
- Focus: Completed repurchase of USD400m bonds to hedge CNY depreciation risk.
Guangzhou Automobile (2238 HK)
- Analyst: Kelvin Lau
- Page: P.31
- Focus: September sales in line with expectations.
President Chain Store (2912 TT)
- Analyst: Christine Wang
- Page: P.32
- Focus: 3Q15 sales in line with estimates.
Uni-President Enterprises (1216 TT)
- Analyst: Christine Wang
- Page: P.33
- Focus: 3Q15 sales in line with estimates.

Upcoming Events

Daiwa Investment Conference Hong Kong 2015
- Date: 10-13 November 2015
- Location: Hong Kong
SM Group Corporate Day Tokyo 2015
- Date: 21-22 October 2015
- Location: Tokyo

Company Roadshows

Date	Company	Event	Venue
13 Oct	Tongda Group (698 HK)	Group Luncheon	HK
13 Oct	Tongda Group (68 HK)	Group Luncheon (VC)	SG
13-14 Oct	CITIC Telecom (1883 HK)	NDR	US
13-14 Oct	CALC (1848 HK)	NDR	Tokyo
15-16 Oct	Xstep (1368 HK)	NDR	Tokyo
20 Oct	Hopefluent (733 HK)	Group Luncheon	HK
20 Oct	Hopefluent (733 HK)	Group Luncheon (VC)	SG
21-22 Oct	Yongda Auto (3669 HK)	NDR	Tokyo
21-22 Oct	SM Investments/SM Prime (SM PM/SMPH PM)	NDR	Tokyo
26-28 Oct	Lai Sun Development (488 HK)	NDR	EU
29 Oct	CDL Hospitality Trusts (CDREIT SP)	Group Luncheon	SG
4-6 Nov	CITIC Telecom (1883 HK)	NDR	EU
9 Nov	HKEx (388 HK)	NDR	Tokyo
26 Nov	Yue Yuen (551 HK)	Group Luncheon	HK

Regional Indices Performance (as of 9 Oct)

Market	1D %	1M %	YTD %	15E %	16E %	15E x	16E x
TPX	2.3	2.4	7.6	20.1	7.9	13.1	12.1
HSCEI	1.3	8.4	(12.1)	2.9	4.9	5.9	5.6
HSI	1.2	5.7	(3.7)	(1.6)	6.8	9.9	9.3
KOSPI	0.1	4.5	5.5	31.8	7.6	11.0	10.2
TWSE	1.5	3.5	(7.9)	4.4	5.7	12.2	11.6
SENSEX*	(0.6)	5.1	(2.2)	11.1	19.8	18.7**	15.6**
FBMKLCI*	0.2	6.6	(2.9)	(3.0)	9.1	15.6**	14.3**
SET*	0.1	2.2	(5.7)	8.2	12.4	13.5**	12.1**
PCOMP*	0.2	3.5	(1.1)	8.3	11.8	18.9**	16.9**
JCI*	0.9	6.2	(11.4)	(4.0)	11.9	13.1**	11.7**
AS51	(0.9)	3.2	(3.3)	(3.8)	7.8	14.3	13.3

*Valuation based on MSCI Universe
**MSCI index priced as of 9 Oct

Financial Summary (Tsingtao Brewery)

Market Share: 18.6% in 2014.
Revenue (2015E): CNY28,481m.
Net Profit (2015E): CNY1,763m.
Core EPS (2015E): CNY1.305.
Dividend Yield: 1.3%.
PBR: 2.4x (2015E), 2.3x (2016E), 2.1x (2017E).
EV/EBITDA (2015E): 11.4x.
Net Debt/Cash (2015E): (6,230)m.
BVPS (2015E): CNY12.254.

Key Ratios (Tsingtao Brewery)

Ratio	2015E (%)	2016E (%)	2017E (%)
Sales (YoY)	(2.0)	2.2	2.6
EBITDA (YoY)	(0.8)	2.0	2.5
Operating Profit (YoY)	(6.7)	(2.4)	(1.6)
Net Profit (YoY)	(11.6)	1.9	0.1
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY)	(11.6)	1.9	0.1
Gross-Profit Margin	30.9%	30.8%	30.8%
EBITDA Margin	10.0%	9.9%	9.9%
Operating-Profit Margin	6.3%	6.0%	5.8%
Net Profit Margin	6.2%	6.2%	6.0%
ROAE	11.0%	10.5%	9.8%
ROAA	6.4%	6.2%	5.9%
ROCE	11.0%	10.0%	9.2%
ROIC	13.7%	12.3%	11.3%
Effective Tax Rate	25.5%	25.0%	25.0%
Net Dividend Payout	30.0%	30.0%	30.0%
Free Cash Flow Yield	1.7%	1.7%	1.9%

Key Financial Highlights

EBIT: 1,796m (2015E), 1,753m (2016E), 1,724m (2017E).
Net Profit: 1,763m (2015E), 1,797m (2016E), 1,800m (2017E).
EBITDA: 2,836m (2015E), 2,893m (2016E), 2,964m (2017E).
Cash Flow from Operations: 2,703m (2015E), 2,684m (2016E), 2,756m (2017E).
Capital Expenditure (Capex): (2,000)m (2015E), (2,000)m (2016E), (2,000)m (2017E).
Change in Cash: 477m (2015E), 575m (2016E), 597m (2017E).

Main Risks and Recommendations

Main Risks: Price hikes and EPS-accretive M&A.
Recommendation: Maintain Underperform rating, with a revised target price of HKD32, reflecting a 20x 2016E PER and a 10.3x 2016E EV/EBITDA.

Market Share Changes in China

Tsingtao: 20-30% in 1H15.
AB-InBev: 50% in 1H15.
Industry Trends: Structural shift in consumption towards wine is expected to continue affecting beer sales.

Summary

The report outlines the financial performance and market dynamics of Tsingtao Brewery and other companies, highlighting challenges and opportunities in the beer, real estate, and automotive sectors. It also includes details on upcoming events and regional market indices, providing a comprehensive view of the investment landscape in the Asia Pacific region.

展开完整摘要