20151011-大和证券-Asia_Pacific_Daily_47页_2mb

报告摘要

Asia Pacific Daily Summary - 11 September 2015

Core Content

Daiwa Investment Conference: Scheduled to be held in Hong Kong from 10-13 November 2015.
Doosan Corp (000150 KS): Upgraded from Hold to Outperform due to a decent dividend yield and the potential DFS bid. Target price increased to KRW120,000 from KRW107,000, representing a 12.1% upside. The company plans to pay a DPS of KRW4,500 for 2015, with a 4.2% dividend yield expected. The upgrade is based on the company's commitment to shareholder returns and the DFS bid, which could boost the share price in the second half of 2015.

Key Information

Dividend Impact: Doosan's DPS for 2015 is KRW4,500, and its subsidiary DHI plans to pay a DPS of KRW850, up 13% YoY, resulting in a 9.8% rise in DHI's share price on 7 September. Doosan is expected to receive KRW37bn in dividends from DHI in early 2016.
DFS Bid: Doosan plans to bid for DFS rights in Seoul and is expected to submit its application on 25 September. The winner is likely to be announced in late October. The company's location in the popular Dongdaemun area and support for SME synergies increase its chances of success.
Valuation: SOTP-based valuation for Doosan is KRW1.7tn, with an EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.4x. The target price is based on the average of 2015-16E EBITDA and improved earnings in electro-material and fuel-cell businesses.
Financial Forecast Revisions: 2015-17E EPS are raised by 3-6%, with a higher 2015E dividend yield. However, Daiwa's 2016-17E EPS are 13.5% lower than consensus due to expected slow recovery in subsidiary earnings.

Main Risks

Subsidiary Losses: Unexpected losses from subsidiaries could impact the company's consolidated net profit.
Competitive DFS Bidding: The DFS bidding process in July 2015 saw no winners in the Dongdaemun area, indicating high competition and uncertainty in the bid outcome.

Company Roadshows

Texhong Textile (2678 HK): NDR event from 7-11 September in EU.
Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Timur Tbk PT (BJTM ID): NDR event from 15-17 September in EU.
Hyundai Wia (11210 KS): NDR event from 14-18 September in US.
TravelSky (696 HK): Video Con. on 15 September in HK.
Ascendas Real Estate Investment Trust (AREIT SP): NDR event from 17-18 September in US.
L'Arc Macau (Not Listed): NDR event from 21-25 September in EU.
Stella International (1836 HK): NDR event from 21-25 September in EU.
Thai Union Frozen Products Pcl (TUF TB): NDR event from 22-23 September in HK.
CITIC Telecom (1883 HK): NDR event from 24-25 September in Tokyo.
NagaCorp (3918 HK): NDR event on 25 September in EU.
Central Plaza Hotel PCL (CENTEL TB): NDR event from 29-30 September in Tokyo.
PTT PCL (PTT TB): NDR event from 7-8 October in SG.
CITIC Telecom (1883 HK): NDR event from 13-14 October in US.
Xtep (1368 HK): NDR event from 15-16 October in Tokyo.
SM Investments/SM Prime (SM PM/SMPH PM): NDR event from 21-22 October in Tokyo.

Regional Indices

TPX: Performance change of -1.8% in 1D, -12.5% in 1M, 5.1% YTD; EPS growth of 19.4% for 2015E, 8.7% for 2016E; PER of 14.0x and 12.9x.
HSCEI: Performance change of -2.0% in 1D, -13.4% in 1M, -18.4% YTD; EPS growth of 3.4% for 2015E, 6.3% for 2016E; PER of 6.0x and 5.7x.
HSI: Performance change of -2.6% in 1D, -12.1% in 1M, -8.7% YTD; EPS growth of -1.0% for 2015E, 8.0% for 2016E; PER of 10.1x and 9.4x.
KOSPI: Performance change of 1.4% in 1D, -2.0% in 1M, 2.4% YTD; EPS growth of 32.4% for 2015E, 8.2% for 2016E; PER of 10.8x and 10.0x.
TWSE: Performance change of -0.2% in 1D, -2.3% in 1M, -11.2% YTD; EPS growth of 5.5% for 2015E, 5.9% for 2016E; PER of 12.0x and 11.4x.
SENSEX: Performance change of -0.4% in 1D, -8.8% in 1M, -6.8% YTD; EPS growth of 12.4% for 2015E, 19.8% for 2016E; PER of 18.7x and 15.6x.
FSSTI: Performance change of -1.4% in 1D, -9.7% in 1M, -14.2% YTD; EPS growth of 0.0% for 2015E, 8.0% for 2016E; PER of 12.2x and 11.3x.
FBMKLCI: Performance change of 0.7% in 1D, -2.4% in 1M, -8.4% YTD; EPS growth of -2.4% for 2015E, 10.2% for 2016E; PER of 15.5x and 14.1x.
SET: Performance change of -0.0% in 1D, -1.7% in 1M, -6.8% YTD; EPS growth of 9.9% for 2015E, 12.8% for 2016E; PER of 13.7x and 12.1x.
PCOMP: Performance change of -0.7% in 1D, -8.5% in 1M, -4.7% YTD; EPS growth of 8.5% for 2015E, 12.4% for 2016E; PER of 19.4x and 17.3x.
JCI: Performance change of -0.1% in 1D, -8.5% in 1M, -16.9% YTD; EPS growth of -2.5% for 2015E, 12.7% for 2016E; PER of 14.1x and 12.5x.
AS51: Performance change of -2.4% in 1D, -7.5% in 1M, -5.8% YTD; EPS growth of -2.8% for 2015E, 9.2% for 2016E; PER of 14.7x and 13.5x.

Financial Summary (Doosan Corp)

Revenue (KRWbn): 21,462 (2015E), 22,444 (2016E), 23,583 (2017E)
Operating Profit (KRWbn): 1,089 (2015E), 1,229 (2016E), 1,338 (2017E)
Net Profit (KRWbn): 84 (2015E), 222 (2016E), 301 (2017E)
Core EPS (KRW): 3,132 (2015E), 8,311 (2016E), 11,292 (2017E)
DPS (KRW): 4,500 (2015E), 5,000 (2016E), 5,500 (2017E)
Dividend Yield (%): 4.2 (2015E), 4.7 (2016E), 5.1 (2017E)
PER (x): 34.2 (2015E), 12.9 (2016E), 9.5 (2017E)
ROE (%): 2.9 (2015E), 7.6 (2016E), 10.1 (2017E)

Key Ratios

Gross-Profit Margin (%): 16.7 (2015E), 17.1 (2016E), 17.3 (2017E)
EBITDA Margin (%): 7.6 (2015E), 7.9 (2016E), 8.0 (2017E)
Operating-Profit Margin (%): 5.1 (2015E), 5.5 (2016E), 5.7 (2017E)
Net-Profit Margin (%): 0.4 (2015E), 1.0 (2016E), 1.3 (2017E)
ROAE (%): 2.9 (2015E), 7.6 (2016E), 10.1 (2017E)
ROAA (%): 0.3 (2015E), 0.7 (2016E), 0.9 (2017E)
ROCE (%): 5.1 (2015E), 5.9 (2016E), 6.3 (2017E)
ROIC (%): 2.9 (2015E), 5.0 (2016E), 5.5 (2017E)
Net Debt to Equity (%): 325.7 (2015E), 312.0 (2016E), 290.8 (2017E)
Effective Tax Rate (%): 50.0 (2015E), 25.0 (2016E), 25.0 (2017E)
Current Ratio (x): 1.0 (2015E), 1.0 (2016E), 1.1 (2017E)
Net Interest Cover (x): 1.5 (2015E), 1.7 (2016E), 1.9 (2017E)
Free Cash Flow Yield (%): 10.3 (2016E), 12.9 (2017E)

Company Profile

Founded: 1896
History: Started as a retail business and has since evolved into a heavy-industry holding company.
Key Stake: Holds a 41% stake in Doosan Heavy Industries and Construction, specializing in power plant and equipment, industrial, and desalination.

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