20250706-财信证券-宏观策略周报_海外关税变数增大_关注高股息及新消费方向_10页_1mb

Market Situation: The A-share market is currently in a consolidation range near the all-time high of 924, with limited signs of economic fundamentals, liquidity, or policy shifts indicating a trend reversal. Trading volumes have shrunk, and the market's rebound sustainability is questionable due to high volatility and overseas uncertainties, particularly US tariffs.

Investment Recommendations: Manage position sizes carefully; focus on sectors expected to beat second-quarter earnings, such as overseas computing, wind power, metals, shipping, and pharmaceuticals. Also consider high-dividend sectors like banking, coal, utilities, and transportation; new consumption areas like health, tourism, and pet care; and defense due to geopolitical risks.

Key Tracking: Monitor ongoing U.S.-China tariff negotiations, which may tighten with potential new tariffs from August, affecting exports and market stability. Economic data releases could pressure stocks lacking solid performance backgrounds.

Risks: Highlighted risks include economic downturn, global bank instability, overseas market fluctuations, and worsening U.S.-China relations, which could amplify uncertainty and impact returns.