2023-07-18-莱坊-Melbourne_Residential_Insight_Q2_2023_4页_737kb

Melbourne Residential Market Summary Q2 2023

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of the residential real estate market in Greater Melbourne, focusing on sales, price performance, rental trends, and the broader economic and lending environment. It also includes forecasts for the next few years, highlighting key drivers and expected market movements.

Key Market Trends

Sales & Price Performance

• Sales Volume: Residential sales volume decreased by 31% in the March 2023 quarter to 13,693 homes, and annual sales volume was 27% lower than the previous year.
• Days on Market: The average days on market for a residential home increased to 79 days in Q2 2023, up from 63 days one quarter prior.
• Median Value: The median residential value in Greater Melbourne at the end of March 2023 was $865,000, reflecting a -6.8% annual decline.

Rental Market

• Vacancy Rate: Residential rental vacancy stood at 2.3% in March 2023, indicating a tight market.
• Rental Growth: Weekly rents rose by 5.3% in the quarter and by 15.1% over the past year, reaching a median of $495 per week.
• Gross Rental Yields: Gross rental yields increased by 26 bps to 3.76% in Q1 2023.

Property Types Analysis

Established Houses

• Sales Volume: House sales volume fell by 32.3% in the March 2023 quarter to 9,572 houses, with an annual decline of 28.2%.
• Days on Market: The average days on market for houses increased to 70 days in Q2 2023, up from 51 days one quarter ago.
• Median Value: The median house value was $1,023,000, down 6.2% over the year.
• Rental Growth: Weekly rents for houses increased by 11.1% annually, reaching a median of $500 per week. Gross rental yields rose by 17 bps to 3.21%.

Established Apartments

• Sales Volume: Apartment sales volume dropped by 28.4% in the March 2023 quarter to 4,121 apartments, with an annual decline of 22.4%.
• Days on Market: The average days on market for apartments increased to 99 days in Q2 2023, up from 89 days one quarter ago.
• Median Value: The median apartment value was $528,000, down 9.1% over the year.
• Rental Growth: Weekly rents for apartments increased by 23.1% annually, reaching a median of $480 per week. Gross rental yields rose by 44 bps to 4.93%.

Future Pipeline

• Building Approvals: In the March 2023 quarter, building approvals for houses and apartments totaled 5,655 houses and 3,134 apartments, respectively. These approvals showed a 6.6% decline for houses and a 56.2% drop for apartments compared to the previous quarter.

Population & Economy

• Population Growth: The Greater Melbourne population was estimated at 5.0 million in 2022, with an annual change of -1.3%. Projected growth to 2041 is 1.9% per annum.
• Economic Growth: Victoria's economic growth was 4.6% in 2022, with a forecast of 1.3% for 2023. The unemployment rate in Greater Melbourne stood at 4.0% in March 2023, up by 21 bps from the previous quarter.

Lending Environment

• Loan Commitments: New household loan commitments in Victoria fell by 10.7% in the March 2023 quarter, compared to a -11.2% decline in the previous quarter.
• First Home Buyers: Lending commitments to first home buyers increased by 29.1% in March 2023, representing 20.6% of all owner-occupier loans.
• Cash Rate: The official cash rate was raised by 50 bps to 4.10% by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Forecasts suggest it will decrease to an average of 3.94% by the end of 2024.
• Mortgage Rates:
  • For owner-occupiers:
    • 3-year fixed term rate increased by 3 bps to 6.27%.
    • Standard variable rate increased by 50 bps to 8.02%.
  • For investors:
    • 3-year fixed term rate decreased by 1 bps to 6.32%.
    • Standard variable rate increased by 50 bps to 8.60%.

Market Forecast (2023-2025)

• Economic Growth: Expected to slow to 0.3% in 2023, with a slight recovery to 2.6% in 2025.
• Unemployment Rate: Projected to rise to 4.1% by 2025.
• Cash Rate Target: Forecast to decrease to 3.6% on average by 2025.

Key Takeaways

• The residential market in Greater Melbourne is experiencing lower sales volume, higher rental growth, and tighter supply.
• House prices are under downward pressure, though rental yields have improved.
• Apartment prices and sales remain subdued, while rental growth is robust, driven by the return of international students.
• The lending environment has tightened, with higher mortgage rates and declining loan commitments.
• Population growth is expected to pick up, but economic growth is projected to slow, potentially impacting the market.

Contact Information

• Residential Research: Michelle Ciesielski | +612 9036 6659 | michelle.ciesielski@au.knightfrank.com
• Residential Site Sales: James Thorpe | +613 9604 4625 | james.thorpe@au.knightfrank.com
• Franchise Partnerships: Sally Edvardsen | +612 9036 6845 | sally.edvardsen@au.knightfrank.com
• Residential: Erin van Tuil | +612 9036 6699 | erin.vantuil@au.knightfrank.com
• Residential Project Sales: Luke Hayes | +612 9036 700 | luke.hayes@au.knightfrank.com
• Valuations: Alistair Carpenter | +612 9036 62 | al.carpenter@au.knightfrank.com