2023-10-01-莱坊-Melbourne_Residential_Insight_Q3_2023_4页_864kb

报告摘要

Melbourne Residential Market Summary - Q3 2023

Core Content Overview

This report provides a detailed analysis of the residential market in Greater Melbourne, focusing on sales, price performance, rental trends, and new builds. It highlights both current conditions and future forecasts, offering insights into the market's dynamics.

Sales Performance

Q3 2023 Sales Volume: Increased by 6% to 17,877 homes sold.
Annual Sales Volume: Down by 26% compared to the same period in 2022.
Days on Market: Average days on market for residential homes decreased from 76 days to 72 days.
Auction Clearance Rate: Reached 65.5% for the week ending 10 September 2023, up from 63.8% the previous week and 61.9% in the same period last year.

Price Performance

Median Residential Value (June 2023): $876,500.
Annual Price Change (June 2022–June 2023): Decreased by 4.6%.
Quarterly Price Change (Q2 2023–Q3 2023): Increased by 1.0%.
Price Forecast:
- End of 2023: Expected to rise by 1%.
- 2024: Forecasted to increase by 4%.
- 2025: Anticipated to grow by 5%.

Rental Performance

Residential Vacancy Rate (June 2023): 2.1% across Greater Melbourne.
- CBD & Inner Suburbs: 2.0%
- Middle Suburbs: 2.9%
- Outer Suburbs (20km+): 1.6%
Gross Rental Yields (Q2 2023): Increased by 19 bps to 3.94%.
Rental Growth:
- Quarterly (June 2023): Rents rose by 4.0%.
- Annual (June 2022–June 2023): Increased by 15.7%, with a weekly median rent of $515.
Rental Forecast:
- End of 2023: Expected to rise by 14%.
- 2024: Forecasted to increase by 12%.
- 2025: Anticipated to grow by 9%.

New Builds

Building Approvals (June 2023):
- Houses: 5,369 units, a 5.0% decrease from the previous quarter.
- Apartments: 3,736 units, a 19.0% increase from the previous quarter.

Key Forecast Drivers

Indicator	2021	2022	2023f	2024f	2025f	2023-2025f AVE
Economic Growth	4.7%	4.7%	1.8%	1.0%	3.6%	2.1%
Unemployment Rate	5.1%	3.7%	3.7%	4.3%	4.3%	4.1%
Cash Rate Target	0.1%	1.2%	3.8%	4.1%	3.4%	3.8%

Market Segments

Established Houses

Median House Value (June 2023): $1,028,000.
Annual Value Change (June 2022–June 2023): Decreased by 4.4%.
Quarterly Value Change (Q2 2023–Q3 2023): Increased by 0.4%.
Annual Rental Growth (June 2023): 13.0%, with a weekly median rent of $520.
Gross Rental Yields (Q2 2023): Increased by 15 bps to 3.36%.

Established Apartments

Median Apartment Value (June 2023): $553,000.
Annual Value Change (June 2022–June 2023): Decreased by 5.5%.
Quarterly Value Change (Q2 2023–Q3 2023): Increased by 3.5%.
Annual Rental Growth (June 2023): 22.0%, with a weekly median rent of $500.
Gross Rental Yields (Q2 2023): Increased by 26 bps to 5.19%.

Residential Market Forecast

Indicator	2021	2022	2023f	2024f	2025f	2023-2025f AVE
Price Performance	15%	-7%	1%	4%	5%	3%
Rental Market	0%	11%	14%	12%	9%	12%

Contact Information

Residential Research: Michelle Ciesielski
Email: michelle.ciesielski@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +612 9036 6659
Residential Site Sales: James Thorpe
Email: james.thorpe@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +613 9604 4625
Franchise Partnerships: Sally Edvardsen
Email: sally.edvardsen@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +612 9036 6845
Residential: Erin van Tuil
Email: erin.vantuil@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +612 9036 6699
Residential Project Sales: Luke Hayes
Email: luke.hayes@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +612 9036 6700
Valuations: Alistair Carpenter
Email: al.carpenter@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +612 9036 620