2024-02-02-莱坊-Perth_Prime_Residential_Insight_Q4_2023_3页_751kb

报告摘要

Perth Prime Residential Insight Summary - Q4 2023

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of the prime luxury residential sales and rental markets in Perth, focusing on recent performance and future forecasts. It highlights the trends in wealth distribution, economic growth, and the lending environment, which collectively influence the real estate market dynamics.

Wealth Trends

High-Net-Worth Individuals (HNWIs):
- The millionaire population in Perth grew by 4.2% in 2022, reaching 199,110 individuals.
- This represents 9.0% of the total Australian HNWI population, down from 9.5% five years ago.
- Forecasted to grow by 61.3% by the end of 2027, maintaining an 8.5% share of all Australian millionaires.
Ultra-High-Net-Worth Individuals (UHNWIs):
- The UHNWI population in Perth declined by 1.8% in 2022 to 1,716 individuals.
- From 2017 to 2022, the UHNWI population grew by 24.7%, though slower than the 31.3% national growth.
- Forecasted to grow by 83.9% over the next five years, surpassing the national UHNWI growth rate of 40.9%.

Economic Performance

Western Australia (WA) Economic Growth:
- Recorded 5.4% in 2022.
- Forecast to slow to 2.1% in 2023, 2.5% in 2024, and 3.6% in 2025.
Unemployment Rate:
- In Greater Perth, the unemployment rate was 3.1% in September 2023, a 43 bps decrease from the previous year.
Stock Market Performance:
- The S&P/ASX 200 fell by 1.9% in Q3 2023, with a total decline of 8.8% over the past year.
- Forecast to rise by 2.2% in 2023, 1.0% in 2024, and 6.0% in 2025.
Company Profits:
- Fell by 19.3% in 2022 after a 5.3% increase in 2021.
- Forecast to decline by 0.3% in 2023, 4.2% in 2024, and then increase by 1.7% in 2025.
New Private Business Investment:
- Grew by 8.0% in the year to September 2023, up from 6.8% the previous year.

Lending Environment

Official Cash Rate:
- Set at 4.35% in December 2023, up from 3.10% a year earlier.
- Forecast to average 3.85% by the end of 2025.
Mortgage Lending Rates:
- For owner occupiers, average rates increased by 51 bps to 6.56% for a 3-year fixed term and 175 bps to 8.52% for a standard variable loan.
- For investors, a 3-year fixed term increased by 64 bps to 6.65%, and a standard variable loan rose by 175 bps to 9.10%.

Sales & Price Performance

Sales Volume:
- 240 prime residential homes sold in the September 2023 quarter, representing a 13% decline compared to the previous quarter.
- Annual sales volume reached 946, a 34% increase compared to the same period in 2022.
Average Days on Market:
- 76 days in September 2023, compared to 72 days in June 2023 and 68 days in September 2022.
Price Growth:
- Prime residential property prices increased by 3.8% in the year to September 2023, but fell by 0.6% in the last quarter.
- Forecast to rise by 5% in 2023, 4% in 2024, and 4% in 2025.

Rental Market

Rental Growth:
- Prime residential rents increased by 0.9% in the September 2023 quarter, and by 11.6% over the past year.
- Forecast to rise by 13% in 2023, 8% in 2024, and 6% in 2025.
Gross Rental Yields:
- Rose by 14 bps in the year ending September 2023, averaging 1.96%.

Key Drivers Forecast

Indicator	2021	2022	2023f	2024f	2025f	Average 2023f-2025f
WA Economic Growth	5.4%	5.4%	2.1%	2.5%	3.6%	2.8%
Unemployment Rate	5.1%	3.7%	3.7%	4.3%	4.3%	4.1%
Cash Rate Target	0.1%	1.2%	3.9%	4.6%	3.9%	4.1%
Stock Market	18%	-2%	2%	1%	6%	3%
Company Profits	5%	19%	0%	-4%	2%	-1%

Source: Oxford Economics

Gold Coast Prime Residential Forecast (Comparison)

Indicator	2021	2022	2023f	2024f	2025f	Average 2023f-2025f
Price Performance	10%	1%	5%	4%	4%	4%
Rental Market	10%	8%	13%	8%	6%	9%

Source: Knight Frank Research

Key Takeaways

Perth's prime luxury residential market is experiencing strong rental growth and rising gross rental yields, driven by the growing HNWI population and limited supply of luxury homes for rent.
Despite a 13% decline in quarterly sales, the annual sales volume has seen a 34% increase, indicating a healthy demand for prime properties.
Prime residential prices have risen by 3.8% over the past year, with a forecast of continued growth at 5% in 2023 and 4% in subsequent years.
Rental prices are expected to grow significantly, with a 13% increase forecast for 2023.
The lending environment is tightening, with mortgage rates rising and the cash rate projected to decrease slightly by 2025.

Contact Information

Residential Research: Michelle Ciesielski | +61290366659 | michelle.ciesielski@au.knightfrank.com
Residential Site Sales: Tony Delich | +61418926410 | tony.delich@au.knightfrank.com
Franchise Partnerships: Sally Edvardsen | +61290366845 | sally.edvardsen@au.knightfrank.com
Residential: Erin van Tuil | +61409325700 | erin.vantuil@au.knightfrank.com
Valuations: Chris Hill | +61438807249 | chris.hill@au.knightfrank.com