2024-01-24-莱坊-Melbourne_Residential_Insight_Q4_2023_4页_805kb

报告摘要

Melbourne Residential Insight Summary (Q4 2023)

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of the mainstream residential sales and rental markets in Greater Melbourne for Q4 2023, highlighting trends, performance metrics, and future forecasts.

Sales Performance

Quarterly Sales Volume: Mainstream residential sales volume fell by 8.9% in the September 2023 quarter, with 78,552 homes sold.
Annual Sales Volume: Annual sales volume recorded a -22.6% decline compared to the previous year.
Days on Market: The average days on market for a home was 65 days in September 2023, down from 71 days three months earlier and 62 days one year ago.
Auction Clearance Rate: The auction clearance rate was 63.9% from 1,092 scheduled actions, lower than the 67.5% from 744 auctions in the prior quarter, but slightly higher than the 64.6% from 130 auctions in the same quarter last year (CoreLogic).

Price Performance

Median Residential Value: The median residential value in Greater Melbourne stood at $886,000 at the end of September 2023.
Annual Price Growth: Residential property prices increased by 0.6% in the year to September 2023.
Quarterly Price Growth: Prices rose by 1.2% in the last quarter.
Forecast: Knight Frank Research forecasts average prices to rise 2% by the end of 2023, 4% in 2024, and 6% in 2025.

Rental Performance

Vacancy Rate: Total residential rental vacancy in September 2023 was 2.3%, down by 130 bps from the previous year.
Gross Rental Yields: Gross rental yields increased by 67 bps to 3.98% in the year ending September 2023.
Weekly Rent Growth: Residential rents rose by 4.9% in the September 2023 quarter and 18.7% annually, reaching $540 per week.
Forecast: Rents are expected to rise 20% by the end of 2023, 12% in 2024, and 8% in 2025.

New Builds

Annual Building Approvals: In September 2023, annual building approvals fell by 14.3% to 42,120 additional dwellings, compared to a -2.8% decline a year earlier.
House Approvals: House approvals were 10.2% lower than the previous year.
Apartment Approvals: Apartment approvals were 18.9% lower than the previous year.
Breakdown: 23,028 houses and 19,092 apartments were approved in September 2023.

Market Forecast Drivers

Indicator	2021	2022	2023f	2024f	2025f	Average 2023f-2025f
VIC Economic Growth	4.7%	4.6%	1.8%	0.6%	3.1%	1.8%
Unemployment Rate	5.1%	3.7%	3.7%	4.3%	4.3%	4.1%
Cash Rate Target	0.1%	1.2%	3.9%	4.6%	3.9%	4.1%

Source: Oxford Economics

Melbourne Residential Forecast

Metric	2021	2022	2023f	2024f	2025f	Average 2023f-2025f
Price Performance	15%	-6%	2%	4%	6%	4%
Rental Market	0%	11%	20%	12%	8%	13%

Source: Knight Frank Research

Established Houses Market

Median House Value: $1,032,500 at the end of September 2023.
Annual Price Growth: Median house values increased by 0.4% in the year to September 2023.
Quarterly Price Growth: Median house values rose by 0.6% in the last quarter.
Rental Growth: House rents rose by 5.8% in the September 2023 quarter and 17.0% annually, reaching $550 per week.
Gross Rental Yields: Gross rental yields for houses increased by 42 bps to 3.32% in the year to September 2023.

Established Apartments Market

Median Apartment Value: $573,000 at the end of September 2023.
Annual Price Growth: Median apartment values increased by 1.3% in the year to September 2023.
Quarterly Price Growth: Median apartment values rose by 3.2% in the last quarter.
Rental Growth: Apartment rents rose by 4.0% in the September 2023 quarter and 22.4% annually, reaching $520 per week.
Gross Rental Yields: Apartment gross rental yields increased by 119 bps to 5.39% in the year to September 2023.

Key Trends

Investment Appeal: The investment proposition for Greater Melbourne is improving, with falling vacancy rates and elevated weekly rents and yields.
Market Imbalance: A 3% vacancy rate is considered balanced, but the current 2.3% indicates a tighter rental market.
Sales vs. Rentals: Rental growth has outpaced sales and price performance, especially for established houses and apartments.

Contact Information

Michelle Ciesielski (Research): +61 2 9036 6659 | michelle.ciesielski@au.knightfrank.com
James Thorpe (Sales): +61 4 1451 0071 | james.thorpe@au.knightfrank.com
Sally Edvardsen (Franchise Partnerships): +61 2 9036 6845 | sally.edvardsen@au.knightfrank.com
Erin van Tuil (Residential): +61 4 0932 5700 | erin.vantuil@au.knightfrank.com
Chris Hill (Valuations): +61 4 3880 7249 | chris.hill@au.knightfrank.com