2024-02-02-莱坊-Brisbane_Prime_Residential_Insight_Q4_2023_3页_784kb

Brisbane Prime Residential Insight Summary (Q4 2023)

Core Content Overview

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the Brisbane prime luxury residential market, focusing on sales, rental performance, wealth trends, and the economic and lending environment impacting the sector. The data is sourced from Knight Frank Research and Oxford Economics, offering insights into both current and projected market conditions.

Wealth Trends

• HNWI Population Growth: Brisbane's high-net-worth individual (HNWI) population, defined as those with net wealth over US$1 million, increased by 4.3% in 2022, reaching 221,025 individuals. This represents 10.0% of Australia's total HNWI population, up from 9.7% five years ago.
• HNWI Growth Rate: Brisbane's HNWI population grew by 32.2% since 2017, outpacing the national growth rate of 28%.
• UHNW Population: The ultra-high-net-worth (UHNW) population in Brisbane (net wealth over US$30 million) declined by 4.6% in 2022 to 1,215 individuals. However, it has grown by 37.9% since 2017, surpassing the national growth of 31.3%.
• UHNW Growth Forecast: Brisbane's UHNW population is projected to grow by 83.9% over the next five years, significantly outperforming the national forecast of 40.9%.

Economic Environment

• QLD Economic Growth: Queensland's economy grew by 3.3% in 2022, with projections for 3.0% in 2023, 2.6% in 2024, and 3.2% in 2025.
• Unemployment Rate: Greater Brisbane's unemployment rate was 4.1% in September 2023, up by 3 bps from the previous year.
• Stock Market Performance: The S&P/ASX 200 fell by 1.9% in Q3 2023, with a total decline of 8.8% over the past year. The market is expected to rise by 2.2% by the end of 2023, 1.0% in 2024, and 6.0% in 2025.
• Company Profits: Annual company profits in Australia fell by 19.3% in 2022 after a 5.3% increase in 2021. Profits are forecast to decline further by 4.2% in 2024, with a 1.7% growth in 2025.
• Private Business Investment: New private business investment in Queensland grew by 8.0% in the year to September 2023, up from 6.8% the previous year.

Sales & Price Performance

• Sales Volume: In September 2023, Brisbane's prime residential sales volume increased by 1% compared to the previous quarter, with 324 homes sold. However, the annual sales volume was 3% lower than the previous year.
• Price Growth: Prime residential property prices in Brisbane rose by 2.5% in the year to September 2023, and 1.1% in the last quarter. Forecasted growth for the next three years is 2% in 2023, 3% in 2024, and 4% in 2025.
• Days on Market: The average days on market for a luxury home in September 2023 was 74 days, down from 65 days in June 2023 and 48 days in September 2022, indicating stronger market activity.

Rental Market Performance

• Rental Growth: Brisbane recorded four consecutive quarters of double-digit annual rental growth, with 19.8% annual rental growth in September 2023.
• Gross Rental Yields: Gross rental yields increased by 41 bps to 2.84% in the year ending September 2023.
• Rental Forecast: Knight Frank Research forecasts 16% rental growth by the end of 2023, followed by 10% in 2024 and 8% in 2025.

Lending Environment

• Official Cash Rate: The Reserve Bank of Australia set the official cash rate at 4.35% in December 2023, up from 3.10% a year earlier. Oxford Economics predicts it will average 3.85% by the end of 2025.
• Mortgage Rates:
  • Owner occupiers saw an increase of 51 bps in average mortgage rates to 6.56% for a 3-year fixed term and 175 bps to 8.52% for a standard variable loan.
  • Investors experienced a 64 bps increase in 3-year fixed term rates to 6.65%, and a 175 bps rise in standard variable loan rates to 9.10%.

Forecast Summary

Key Drivers of the Market

• Economic Growth: Queensland's economic growth is expected to remain stable, with a projected average of 2.9% from 2023 to 2025.
• Unemployment Rate: Brisbane's unemployment rate is projected to remain around 4.1% over the next three years.
• Stock Market: The stock market is expected to show moderate growth, averaging 3% over the forecast period.
• Company Profits: Profits are forecast to decline in 2024 before showing a slight recovery in 2025.

Conclusion

Brisbane's prime luxury residential market is experiencing strong momentum, with notable growth in both property prices and rental values. The city's HNWI population is expanding faster than the national average, while the UHNW segment is also showing robust growth. Despite rising mortgage rates, the market remains attractive due to continued demand and limited supply, supported by a stable economic outlook and improving rental yields. The forecast indicates continued price and rental growth over the next three years, making Brisbane an appealing market for investors and high-net-worth individuals.