2024-01-24-莱坊-Hobart_Residential_Insight_Q4_2023_4页_798kb

Hobart Residential Insight Summary - Q4 2023

Core Content Overview

This document presents Knight Frank's quarterly analysis of the residential market in Greater Hobart, covering sales, rental, and new build trends, as well as economic and financial forecasts impacting the market.

Main Sales Performance

• Sales Volume:
  • The September 2023 quarter saw a 25.3% decline in mainstream residential sales volume, with 3,797 homes sold.
  • Annual sales volume was down 12.3% compared to the previous year.
• Days on Market:
  • The average days on market for a home in September 2023 was 69 days, up from 64 days in June 2023 and 37 days in September 2022.
• Auction Clearance Rate:
  • No auctions were cleared in September 2023, maintaining a 0.0% clearance rate from 1 scheduled auction, consistent with the prior quarter.

Price Performance

• Median Residential Value:
  • The median residential value in Greater Hobart stood at $686,500 as of September 2023.
• Annual Price Change:
  • Residential property prices fell 4.2% year-on-year, while rising 0.7% in the last quarter.
• Forecast:
  • Average prices are expected to decrease by 1% in 2023, rise by 4% in 2024, and 5% in 2025.

Rental Market Performance

• Vacancy Rate:
  • Total residential rental vacancy in September 2023 was 2.1%, up by 110 basis points from the previous year.
  • A 3% vacancy rate is generally seen as a balanced market.
• Gross Rental Yields:
  • Gross rental yields increased by 31 basis points to 4.11% year-on-year.
• Rental Growth:
  • Residential rents remained unchanged in the September 2023 quarter, but fell 1.0% annually to $520 per week.
• Forecast:
  • Rents are expected to fall 2% by the end of 2023, remain stable at 2% in 2024, and decline 3% in 2025.

New Builds

• Building Approvals:
  • Annual building approvals in September 2023 totaled 1,275 additional dwellings, down 13.6% from the previous year.
  • House approvals were 5.8% lower, while apartment approvals were 53.1% lower compared to the same quarter in 2022.

Economic and Financial Indicators

Established Houses

• Sales Volume:
  • House sales volume in the September 2023 quarter fell 23.8% to 3,186 houses.
  • Annual sales volume was 12.9% lower than the previous year.
• Days on Market:
  • The average days on market for a house was 68 days in September 2023, up from 63 days in June 2023 and 38 days in September 2022.
• Median House Value:
  • Median house value was $717,000 in September 2023, down 3.2% year-on-year.
• Rental Growth:
  • Annual median weekly rental growth for houses was -1.9%, with rents at $530 per week.

Established Apartments

• Sales Volume:
  • Apartment sales volume in the September 2023 quarter decreased by 32.6% to 611 apartments.
  • Annual sales volume was 9.2% lower than the previous year.
• Days on Market:
  • The average days on market for an apartment was 73 days in September 2023, up from 68 days in June 2023 and 34 days in September 2022.
• Median Apartment Value:
  • Median apartment value was $503,000 in September 2023, down 11.5% year-on-year.
• Rental Growth:
  • Annual median weekly rental growth for apartments was 0%, with rents at $450 per week.
  • Gross rental yields for apartments increased by 23 basis points to 4.03%.

Residential Market Forecast

Key Drivers:

• TAS Economic Growth: Expected to decrease to -1.2% in 2023, then rise to 0.4% and 1.9% in 2024 and 2025.
• Unemployment Rate: Expected to remain at 3.7% in 2023 and increase to 4.3% in 2024.
• Cash Rate Target: Forecast to rise to 3.9% in 2025.

Contact Information

• Residential Research: Michelle Ciesielski

  • Email: michelle.ciesielski@au.knightfrank.com
  • Phone: +61290366659

• Residential, Tasmania: Mathew Chugg

  • Email: mathew.chugg@au.knightfrank.com
  • Phone: +61417 137533

• Franchise Partnerships: Sally Edvardsen

  • Email: sally.edvardsen@au.knightfrank.com
  • Phone: +61290366845

• Residential, Australia: Erin van Tuil

  • Email: erin.vantuil@au.knightfrank.com
  • Phone: +61409325700

• Valuations: Chris Hill

  • Email: chris.hill@au.knightfrank.com
  • Phone: +61438807249