2024-01-24-莱坊-Adelaide_Residential_Insight_Q4_2023_4页_868kb

报告摘要

Adelaide Residential Insight Summary (Q4 2023)

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of the residential property market in Greater Adelaide, focusing on sales, price, and rental performance, as well as new builds and economic forecasts. It highlights the strong growth trends in both the housing and apartment sectors, despite a decline in overall sales volume.

Main Market Trends

Sales Performance

Total Sales Volume: In the September 2023 quarter, 24,147 residential homes (houses and apartments) were sold, marking a 0.8% quarterly decline and a 15.7% annual decline.
House Sales: Increased by 1.5% in the September 2023 quarter to 19,271 houses, with an annual decline of 15.7%.
Apartment Sales: Decreased by 9.3% in the September 2023 quarter, with an annual decline of 15.6%.
Days on Market:
- Overall: 67 days in September 2023, compared to 73 days three months earlier and 69 days one year ago.
- Houses: 66 days in September 2023, compared to 70 days three months earlier and 66 days one year ago.
- Apartments: 72 days in September 2023, compared to 81 days three months earlier and 80 days one year ago.
Auction Clearance Rate:
- 73.3% in September 2023 (from 176 auctions), down from 78.2% in the previous quarter (from 101 auctions) and up from 69.6% in the same quarter last year.

Price Performance

Residential Median Value: Reached $751,500 in September 2023, up 9.3% year-on-year and 4.4% quarter-on-quarter.
House Median Value: $844,500 in September 2023, up 8.3% year-on-year and 4.4% quarter-on-quarter.
Apartment Median Value: $466,500 in September 2023, up 15.0% year-on-year and 4.1% quarter-on-quarter.
Price Forecast:
- 2023: 11% increase
- 2024: 6% increase
- 2025: 5% increase

Rental Performance

Total Vacancy Rate: 0.6% in September 2023, up 20 bps from the previous year.
Gross Rental Yields:
- Residential: 4.33%, down 9 bps year-on-year.
- Houses: 4.03%, down 7 bps year-on-year.
- Apartments: 5.26%, down 14 bps year-on-year.
Rental Growth:
- Residential: 11.7% annually, 1.9% quarter-on-quarter.
- Houses: $550 per week, up 12.2% annually.
- Apartments: $450 per week, up 12.5% annually.
Rental Forecast:
- 2023: 12% increase
- 2024: 8% increase
- 2025: 6% increase

New Builds

Annual Building Approvals: Fell by 4.0% to 9,976 additional dwellings in September 2023, compared to a 14.5% drop the previous year.
House Approvals: Down 2.4% year-on-year.
Apartment Approvals: Down 8.3% year-on-year.

Economic and Demographic Context

South Australia Economic Growth:
- 2022: 4.2%
- 2025 Forecast: 2.0%
Greater Adelaide Unemployment Rate: 3.5% in September 2023.
Official Cash Rate Target:
- December 2023: 3.9%
- 2025 Forecast: 3.9%
Greater Adelaide Population Growth:
- 2022: 1.2% to an estimated 1.4 million persons.
- 2025 Forecast: 1.2%

Key Drivers of the Forecast

Indicator	2021	2022	2023f	2024f	2025f	Average 2023f-2025f
SA Economic Growth	7.6%	4.2%	1.4%	0.9%	2.0%	0.4%
Unemployment Rate	5.1%	3.7%	3.7%	4.3%	4.3%	4.1%
Cash Rate Target	0.1%	1.2%	3.9%	4.6%	3.9%	4.1%

Residential Forecast

Metric	2021	2022	2023f	2024f	2025f	Average 2023f-2025f
Price Performance	22%	10%	11%	6%	5%	7%
Rental Market	9%	10%	12%	8%	6%	9%

Contact Information

Michelle Ciesielski – Recent Research
Email: michelle.ciesielski@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +612 9036 6659
Oliver Totani – Residential Site Sales
Email: oliver.totani@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +614 1280 8743
Sally Edwardsen – Franchise Partnerships
Email: sally.edvardsen@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +612 9036 6845
Erin van Tuil – Residential
Email: erin.vantuil@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +614 0932 5700
Chris Hill – Valuations
Email: chris.hill@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +614 3880 7249