2024-01-24-莱坊-Canberra_Residential_Insight_Q4_2023_4页_792kb
报告摘要
Canberra Residential Insight Summary (Q4 2023)
Core Content Overview
This document presents Knight Frank's quarterly analysis of the residential sales and rental markets in Canberra, focusing on recent trends, performance metrics, and future forecasts.
Mainstream Residential Market Performance
- Sales Volume:
- September 2023: 9,613 homes sold, representing a 31.8% decrease compared to the previous quarter.
- Annual Sales Volume: -26.9% compared to the same quarter in 2022.
- Days on Market:
- September 2023: 59 days.
- Three months earlier: 61 days.
- One year earlier: 48 days.
- Auction Clearance Rate:
- September 2023: 57.9% from 109 auctions.
- Prior Quarter: 69.2% from 78 auctions.
- Same Quarter Last Year: 50.9% from 115 auctions.
Price Performance
- Median Residential Value: $868,000 as of September 2023.
- Annual Price Change: -3.5% (from September 2022 to September 2023).
- Quarterly Price Change: +1.2% (from June to September 2023).
- Price Forecast:
- End of 2023: -2%.
- 2024: +3%.
- 2025: +5%.
Rental Market Performance
- Total Residential Vacancy Rate: 1.9% in September 2023.
- Annual Increase: +80 bps (basis points) over the past year.
- Gross Rental Yields:
- Annual Compression: -3 bps to 4.17%.
- Weekly Rent:
- September 2023 Quarter: -2.4%.
- Annual Change: -2.4% to $615 per week.
- Rental Forecast:
- End of 2023: -3%.
- 2024: -3%.
- 2025: -4%.
New Builds
- Annual Building Approvals (September 2023): 3,834 dwellings, a 35% decrease from the previous year.
- Houses Approved: 922, down 41.9% annually.
- Apartments Approved: 2,912, down 32.4% annually.
Key Economic and Demographic Indicators
| Indicator | 2022 | 2023 Forecast | 2025 Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| ACT Economic Growth | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.4% |
| Canberra Unemployment Rate | 3.9% | - | - |
| Official Cash Rate Target | - | 3.9% | 3.9% |
| Annual Population Change | 1.0% | - | 1.5% |
| New Household Loan Commitments | -23.6% | - | - |
| Lending Commitments to First Home Buyers | -16.7% | - | - |
Property Type Performance
Established Houses
- Median House Value: $1,042,500 (as of September 2023).
- Annual Price Change: -2.9%.
- Quarterly Price Change: +1.8%.
- Weekly Rent: $655 per week.
- Annual Rent Change: -3.7%.
- Gross Rental Yield: 3.55% (up 5 bps from the previous year).
Established Apartments
- Median Apartment Value: $567,000 (as of September 2023).
- Annual Price Change: -5.3%.
- Quarterly Price Change: -0.6%.
- Weekly Rent: $550 per week (unchanged quarterly and annually).
- Annual Rent Change: 0%.
- Gross Rental Yield: 5.23% (down 17 bps from the previous year).
Residential Forecast
Key Drivers Forecast (2021–2025)
| Indicator | 2021 | 2022 | 2023f | 2024f | 2025f | Average (2023f–2025f) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACT Economic Growth | 4.7% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 1.6% |
| Unemployment Rate | 5.1% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.1% |
| Cash Rate Target | 0.1% | 1.2% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.1% |
Source: Oxford Economics
Residential Market Forecast (2021–2025)
| Indicator | 2021 | 2022 | 2023f | 2024f | 2025f | Average (2023f–2025f) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price Performance | 28% | -7% | -2% | 3% | 5% | 2% |
| Rental Market | 10% | 3% | -3% | 3% | 4% | 1% |
Source: Knight Frank Research
Contact Information
- Residential Research: Michelle Ciesielski, +612 9036 6659, michelle.ciesielski@au.knightfrank.com
- Residential Site Sales: Nathan Dunn, +614 8821 6406, nathan.dunn@au.knightfrank.com
- Franchise Partnerships: Sally Edvardsen, +612 9036 6845, sally.edvardsen@au.knightfrank.com
- Residential: Erin van Tuil, +614 0932 5700, erin.vantuil@au.knightfrank.com
- Valuations: Chris Hill, +614 3880 7249, chris.hill@au.knightfrank.com
Key Takeaways
- Sales Volume: Continued decline in both houses and apartments.
- Price Trends: Median property prices fell 3.5% annually but rose slightly in the last quarter.
- Rental Market: Vacancy rates increased, leading to reduced rental growth and compressed yields.
- New Builds: Sharp decline in building approvals, signaling potential market cooling.
- Economic Outlook: ACT economic growth is expected to stabilize, with a forecast of 2.4% in 2025.
- Unemployment: Expected to rise slightly, with a forecast of 4.1% average over 2023–2025.
- Cash Rate: Projected to increase in 2023 and then stabilize in 2025.
This analysis highlights a shifting market landscape in Canberra, with property prices showing resilience but rental growth slowing and yields tightening.
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