世界银行-碳定价和竞争力高级别委员会的报告（英文）-2019.9-53页_2mb

报告摘要

Summary of the Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Pricing and Competitiveness

Core Content

The report by the High-Level Commission on Carbon Pricing and Competitiveness, led by Anand Mahindra and Feike Sijbesma, addresses the concerns of businesses and policymakers regarding the potential adverse effects of carbon pricing on competitiveness. It emphasizes that while carbon pricing can lead to short-term challenges for certain industries, it is a necessary and effective tool for transitioning to a low-carbon economy.

Main Findings

Climate Change Threat: Climate change poses a real and urgent threat to industries and economies. A timely and cost-effective transition to a net-zero economy is essential to avoid severe environmental impacts and maintain economic productivity.
Effectiveness of Carbon Pricing: Carbon pricing is an effective, flexible, and low-cost approach to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It can be used in conjunction with other policies to support the transition to a low-carbon economy.
Competitiveness Risks: Firms in highly emissions-intensive and trade-exposed (EITE) sectors may face competitiveness risks due to higher carbon costs compared to international competitors. However, these risks are not widespread and are often overstated.
Carbon Leakage Concerns: There is a risk that carbon-intensive industries may relocate to regions with lower or no carbon pricing, leading to a "carbon leakage" effect. This could result in job losses, reduced profits, and undermine environmental goals.
Limited Evidence of Relocation: To date, there is little evidence that carbon pricing has caused significant relocation of production or investment. This is attributed to moderate carbon prices, sector protections, and other factors such as tax rates, labor, and infrastructure being more influential in investment decisions.
Policy Solutions: To address competitiveness concerns, the report recommends a range of policy measures, including free allocation of emission rights and border adjustments. These should be based on data-driven, location-specific assessments and periodically reviewed for effectiveness.
Innovation and Growth: Carbon pricing can drive innovation, investment, and substantial growth in certain sectors. It also generates revenue that can be used to support transition programs and those negatively affected by the policy.
Just Transition: The report highlights the importance of a just transition, ensuring that workers and communities are not left behind. This includes support for R&D, technology innovation, and financial assistance for affected sectors.

Key Policies and Approaches

Carbon Pricing Mechanisms: The report does not evaluate the merits of cap-and-trade systems or carbon taxes but discusses the broader implications of carbon pricing on competitiveness.
Regional Examples:
- Canada: Uses a mix of carbon pricing and other policies. Alberta and Quebec implement output-based allocation systems, while British Columbia uses a carbon tax to reduce corporate taxes and support innovation.
- China: Plans to launch a national ETS in 2020.
- Singapore: Implemented a carbon tax in January 2019.
- South Africa: Introduced carbon pricing in June 2019.
- United States: No national carbon price exists, but 10 states have implemented carbon pricing programs.

Methodology and Scope

The report is based on a comprehensive assessment of available evidence, literature, and consultations with industry stakeholders from various countries.
It focuses on the competitiveness issues arising from carbon pricing, particularly in EITE sectors, and does not provide an overview of internal carbon pricing practices.
The methodology includes both ex-ante and ex-post analyses of carbon pricing impacts, as well as input from an expert advisory group.

Conclusion

Competitiveness Concerns: While competitiveness remains a key concern for policymakers, it should not prevent the implementation of carbon pricing. The concerns are primarily relevant to EITE sectors and can be managed through tailored policies.
Future Outlook: As ambition levels increase to meet the Paris Agreement goals, carbon prices are expected to rise, potentially increasing competitiveness impacts. However, as more countries adopt carbon pricing and link their carbon markets, the differences in carbon prices are likely to decrease, reducing competitiveness concerns.
Need for Policy Clarity and Stability: Stable and predictable policies, with increasing stringency over time, are crucial for supporting innovation and ensuring that firms remain competitive in global markets.

Recommendations

Data Transparency: Governments should require data transparency from industries to assess when and how intervention is necessary.
Local Tailoring: Policies should be designed locally to protect at-risk sectors while maintaining incentives for low-carbon innovation.
Border Measures: Border carbon adjustment mechanisms, such as carbon tariffs, could be used to prevent carbon leakage, but must be carefully evaluated.
Support for Transition: Governments should support a just transition through R&D funding, tax incentives, and assistance programs for affected workers and industries.

References and Acronyms

Key Acronyms:
- BCA: Border Carbon Adjustment
- EITE: Emissions-Intensive Trade-Exposed
- ETS: Emissions Trading System
- GHG: Greenhouse Gas
- NDC: Nationally Determined Contribution
- CPLC: Carbon Pricing Leadership Coalition
- WRI: World Resources Institute
- C2ES: Center for Climate and Energy Solutions
Key References:
- IPCC (2018): Highlights the need for rapid and far-reaching transitions to limit global warming to 1.5°C.
- Stern-Stiglitz Report (CPLC 2017): Sets carbon price targets of $40–$80/tCO2e by 2020 and $50–$100/tCO2e by 2030.
- Rhodium Group (2018): Notes that 10 U.S. states have carbon pricing programs covering 6% of national emissions.