20230612-国盛证券-建筑材料行业周报_玻璃产销逐步恢复_再次进入底部配置区间_15页_1mb

Building Materials Industry Week Summary - June 12, 2023

• Overall performance: The building materials sector (SW) index rose by 0.48% this week, outperforming the Shanghai-Hainan Composite Index (0.04%) and showing a 113% excess return over the沪深300 index. Sub-sectors varied, with cement up 1.26%, glass manufacturing down 2.37%, glass fiber manufacturing down 1.36%, and construction materials up 1.18%. Net fund inflow was negative, totaling -15.7 billion yuan.

• Key market views: The market showed policy expectations and is entering a bottom area for bottom-up fundamentals. There is an ongoing policy anticipation, with a potential rebound as the sector grinds through its base.

• Cement sector: Weak demand in the summer due to rain and holidays led to falling prices, inventory accumulation (many regions at 70% capacity), and low new housing starts. Fundamentally, prices are near cost lines, with a two-month downturn expected.

• Glass sector: Prices dropped sharply (-27.3%), with inventory decreasing. Production is resuming, and after inventory cleanup, prices may rebound due to demand elasticity, though barriers like high pure碱 costs persist.

• Glass fiber sector: Local price declines but limited by cost support; overall inventory rising. Opportunities exist in wind power demand, but supply pressure may hinder price increases; potential for sector-driven price jumps in Q2.

• Consumption building materials: Weak demand persists, but valuation and growth are aligning, offering high-性价比 investments for left-side positioning.

• Carbon fiber sector: Prices stable, but sales pressure increases, with improving profitability due to cost reductions, though inventory is high.

• Key recommendations: Continue recommending glass manufacturers like旗滨集团, and target consumption materials like志特新材 due to valued left-side opportunities.

• Risks: Uneven housing demand recovery, slower-than-expected policy effects; persistent raw material price increases causing margin compression.