20230528-国盛证券-建筑材料行业周报_建材调整接近底部区域_高性价比标的值得左侧布局_17页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of Building Materials Industry Weekly Report May 28, 2023

Market Overview

The building materials sector (SW index) declined by 2.02% for the week ending May 26, 2023, underperforming the Shanghai Composite index (-0.89%) relative to the沪深300 index. Sub-sectors varied, with glass manufacturing down 1.8%, cement down 1.2%, fiberglass manufacturing up 3.9%, and consumption building materials down 1.7%. Net capital inflow was negative, at -CNY 3.25 billion. The sector is considered near its bottom, presenting high-valuation opportunities due to valuation adjustments and potential rebounds.

Sub-sectors Performance and Analysis

Cement: Demand remains weak, with prices falling 0.9% nationally. Regional variations exist; for instance, the宁夏 region saw price hikes, while areas like华东 and西南 experienced declines, fueling increased competition. Key factors include reduced demand from real estate and tight government funds, with municipal projects also slowing. Large-scale infrastructure supports demand but lacks strong pricing power, limiting upside.
Glass: Margins continue improving, supported by pure碱 price drops. Industry inventory levels are high, but not reaching saturation. Short-term prices are expected to trend sideways due to seasonal demand and trade-offs, but long-term prospects include potential price increases if demand recovers, bolstered by ongoing capacity adjustments like cold maintenance lines.
Fiberglass: The market is oversupplied, with reduced capacity. lower, but demand may rise with increased wind power installations. A possible short-term price opportunity in 2023 due to reduced investments last year.
Consumption Building Materials: These are undervalued and over-adjusted after a double wham打击 from weak real estate performance and valuation cuts. Companies like Zhite New Material are recommended for their fair valuation and growth potential, likely resuming with better matches of cost and performance.
Carbon Fiber: Prices stay stable, with output around 5.32 tons/week. Despite high inventories and fluctuating costs, long-term demand in electric vehicles and infrastructure is noted, but competition intensifies with domestic production gains.

Investment Recommendations

Glass: Priority, with Flag 279 Shengjing Group highlighted based on profit margins.
Consumption Building Materials: Key stock is Zhite New Material.
Monitoring is advised, with cautious waits on cement due to unstable demand.