2025-06-04-Bernstein-设备租赁_Wolftrac数据显示利用率和费率前景更好_16页_833kb

报告摘要

European Equipment Rental Market Update (4 June 2025)

This summary analyzes key trends from the European equipment rental sector, based on the latest WolfTrac data and Bernstein Research insights. The report highlights mixed but improving signals in rental rates, utilization, and demand, amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

Rental Rate Performance

Rental rates for April and May 2025 showed marginal declines or rebounds: -0.7% YoY in April and +0.6% YoY in May.
Investor sentiment improved, with 55% of respondents expecting flat rates for 2025 (up from 17% in Q1), while 27% anticipate declines (a decrease from 50%).
Pressure stems from heightened competition and undercutting, supported by WolfTrac survey data.

Utilization Rate Trends

Utilization rates significantly improved, rising by +6.0% YoY to 61% in April and May, reversing earlier declines in Q1 (e.g., -4.5% YoY in February-March).
Respondents described the rates as "typical for the season," with April at 58% (unchanged YoY) and May at 64%.
Sequential improvement is noted, but seasonal factors and adverse weather in the U.S. may influence short-term trends.

Demand Outlook

Overall demand remained negative, down -0.5% YoY in April-May, driven by factors like adverse weather, economic uncertainty, and tariff concerns.
Key drivers include commercial construction (up in industrial and DIY sectors), with specialty equipment demand linked to seasonal patterns.
Despite challenges, demand stabilized in May with a flat 0.0% YoY reading.

Macroeconomic Context

Mixed signals from the U.S. construction sector are evident, with the Dodge Index of Construction Starts at -8% YoY in May and slight improvement in the Dodge Momentum Index (+1% MoM in April).
Indicators like the Architecture Billing Index (ABI) remain below threshold, reflecting subdued construction activity, though non-residential starts show stability.

Investment Implications

Ashtead Group: Maintained Outperform rating with a £6,250p target, based on a 2.7x EV/IC multiple, supporting stable growth forecasts (e.g., U.S. rental revenue growth of 2% in Q4 2025).
United Rentals: Market-Perform rating with a $666 target, reflecting an EV/EBITDA multiple, amid risks like faster industrial recovery and rental rate pressures.
Bernstein expects U.S. rental revenue growth to stabilize at 2-4% for FY2026.