20230815-国金证券-批发和零售贸易_7月社零同比+2.5_必需稳健_可选偏弱_5页_734kb

Summary of Social消费品 Retail Sales Analysis (July 2023)

Overall Performance

In July 2023, the year-on-year growth of social消费品 retail sales was +25%, with a month-on-month deceleration. The two-year average growth was +26%, indicating a slowdown from June. Among limited-enterprise above-scale units, year-on-year growth was +3%, down from June, primarily due to higher last-year growth post-pandemic recovery.

Categorized Analysis

• Necessary Goods: Maintained steady performance. Food grains and alcohol showed strong growth, while tobacco and liquor sectors also performed well. Specific items like traditional Chinese medicines saw yoy growth but decelerated in July.
• Discretionary Goods: Displayed weakness, with cosmetics and gold/jewelry classes turning negative year-on-year due to factors like high last-year comparisons and short-term dips, leading to reduced growth momentum.

Channel and Regional Insights

• Channels: Online retail sales showed cyclical improvement in July, with year-on-year gains, while offline sales slowed month-on-month. Supermarkets, convenience stores, and specialty stores in offline channels had mixed performances in the first seven months.
• Regions: Rural areas outperformed urban regions, with higher sales growth in both July and the first seven months.

Key Risks

• Lower-than-anticipated household income growth.
• Slower-than-expected recovery in consumer confidence.
• Potential for pandemic disruptions, impacting demand stabilization.

Investment Recommendations

Focus on sectors such as beauty and cosmetics (e.g., Fuerda, Shuiyang Shares, Purely; for individual investors), human resources and education for workforce-related opportunities, and retail industry leaders emerging from pandemic recovery. Hedge against economic uncertainties through diversified strategies.

Industry professionals should monitor the cited stocks and market conditions for potential entry points.