20230904-财信证券-玲珑轮胎-601966.SH-多因素边际改善_业绩持续回升_4页_949kb

报告摘要

Linglong Tire Performance Summary

Overview

Linglong Tire (601966SH), a key player in the auto and tire industry, is experiencing performance improvements driven by market recovery. The company is rated "买入" (Buy) with a price target based on 2023 financial analysis.

Key Financial Highlights (2023 H1)

Revenue: Increased by 99.2% year-over-year to RMB 92.36 billion in 2023 H1, with a 197.4% quarter-over-quarter rise in Q2 to RMB 48.52 billion.
Profit: Net profit surged 406.6% year-over-year to RMB 5.60 billion in 2023 H1, including a 713.6% Q2 increase to RMB 3.47 billion, boosted by reduced R&D expenses and improved raw material costs.
Other Metrics: Q2 tire sales reached 19.26 million units (+428.4% YoY), supported by strong domestic and export demand.

Drivers of Improvement

Demand Recovery: Domestic car sales grew 98.0% YoY in H1 2023, and tire exports increased 69.0% to 30 billion units.
Cost Factors: Raw material prices, like carbon black, fell 21.29%, enhancing margins. The company's 2023 Q2 US anti-dumping tax cut in Thailand improved competitiveness.
Geographic Expansion: Serbia factory production is ramping up, adding new revenue and profit potential.

Financial Forecast (2023-2025)

Revenue: Expected to reach 18.69 trillion RMB, rising to 24.66 trillion RMB by 2025.
Earnings Per Share (EPS): Projected from 0.76 yuan to 1.68 yuan, with a fair PE valuation of 30-33 times for 2023.

Risks

Factors include potential demand slowdown, project delays (e.g., Serbia factory), and global economic uncertainty.

Conclusion

Linglong Tire's strategic advancements and market recovery positions it for continued growth, supported by robust forecasts. The company maintains high confidence amid evolving risks.

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