2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Kingdom_of_Lesotho_Fifth_Review_Under_the_Three_48页_1mb

Summary of the Fifth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility for Lesotho

Core Content

This document outlines the Fifth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) for Lesotho, which was approved by the IMF Executive Board. The review assesses the country's economic developments, program performance, and policy discussions in the context of the ECF-supported program, which aims to stabilize the economy, support growth, and ensure fiscal sustainability.

The review period covers 2012/13 and 2013/14, with a request for the extension of the arrangement to September 30, 2013. The staff report, prepared by the IMF, was completed on April 23, 2013, following discussions with Lesotho officials on March 29, 2013. The views expressed are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily reflect the IMF Executive Board's stance.

Main Points and Key Information

Economic Outlook

• Lesotho maintained positive real GDP growth of 3 1/3% in 2012/13, supported by mining and construction.
• The growth outlook for 2013/14 and beyond is expected to remain above 4%, driven by recovery in agriculture and continued mining expansion.
• However, downside risks exist due to:
  • Uncertain global and regional economic conditions.
  • Potential prolonged decline in diamond prices.
  • AGOA expiration in 2015, which could negatively impact the textile sector.
• Inflation has been moderating, reaching 5.1% in February 2013, due to falling international commodity prices.

International Support and Fiscal Performance

• Lesotho received $40 million in international assistance in response to the UN drought appeal launched in September 2012, fully covering immediate needs.
• The non-SACU fiscal deficit narrowed to 20% of GDP in 2012/13, down from 22 3/4% in 2011/12, due to lower recurrent spending and delayed capital projects.
• International reserves improved to 4 months of imports by end-February 2013, up from 3 1/2 months at end-March 2012.
• Revenue collection strengthened, with the Lesotho Revenue Authority (LRA) reform completed by end-March 2013.

Program Implementation

• The ECF-supported program is broadly on track.
• All quantitative performance criteria (PCs) and indicative targets for end-September 2012 and end-December 2012 were met, except for a small margin on the social spending target.
• Three out of six structural benchmarks (SBs) were implemented by March 2013:
  • Submission of Industrial Licensing Bill and Insurance Bill to Parliament.
  • Establishment of a full-service Large Taxpayers Unit (LTU).
• The remaining three SBs were delayed due to administrative setbacks, but the authorities plan to complete them by May 2013.

Policy Discussions

• The exchange rate regime is maintained, with a peg to the South African rand, to support price stability and financial transactions.
• Fiscal consolidation is a key priority, with the goal of reducing the non-SACU deficit to 19% of GDP in 2013/14.
• The National Strategic Development Plan (NSDP) is being implemented to promote private sector-led growth.
• The authorities aim to improve the business climate, access to finance, and international competitiveness.

Reforms and Initiatives

• The PFM reform action plan was formulated in December 2012 and is expected to improve public spending efficiency.
• The land titling program is being accelerated, with plans to fully implement the 2010 Land Administration Act.
• The national identification card project and credit rating system are also being advanced.
• The financial sector is being reformed, including:
  • Implementation of the new Financial Institutions Act (FIA).
  • Development of a credit rating system to encourage private sector lending.
  • Joint supervision and information sharing with the South African Reserve Bank.
• A financial sector development strategy is being developed with IMF and World Bank support to improve financial intermediation and private sector development.

Conclusion

The IMF staff supports the completion of the fifth review under the ECF arrangement and the extension of the program to September 30, 2013, provided that continued implementation of sound policies and reforms is maintained. The program is on track, and fiscal consolidation has helped rebuild international reserves and improve external balances. The private sector is showing growth, and reforms are being pursued to enhance financial stability, business environment, and export competitiveness.

The textile sector, the third largest employer, faces downside risks due to the AGOA expiration in 2015, while the mining sector remains a key growth driver. The authorities are committed to addressing these challenges through policy reforms and international cooperation.