2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Togo_Fifth_Review_Under_the_Three_53页_938kb

Summary of Togo's Fifth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility

Core Content

This document outlines the findings of the Fifth Review under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) for Togo, which was conducted by the IMF staff in consultation with Togo's authorities. The review also includes a request for modification of a performance criterion and a request for extension of the arrangement, reflecting the country's ongoing economic challenges and progress in implementing structural reforms.

The review was based on discussions held in Lomé from September 8 to 21, 2010, and the staff report was finalized on November 22, 2010. It was approved by Tom Dorsey and Michael Atingi Ego. The document includes a staff statement, a press release, and a statement by the Executive Director, providing a comprehensive overview of Togo's economic situation and program performance.

Main Views and Key Information

Economic Performance

• Growth remains modest: Togo's GDP growth was 3.4 percent in 2010, slightly above the 2008-09 level but still below the estimated potential of 4 percent.
• Countercyclical policies: The government has implemented countercyclical fiscal policies to support growth, and these have been effective in maintaining stability despite adverse external conditions.
• Inflation remains stable: Inflation was around 2 percent in 2010, supported by monetary policy and a controlled money supply.
• Current account deficit: The current account deficit is expected to remain high at around 7.5 percent of GDP in 2010 and 7.4 percent in 2011.

Program Implementation

• Performance criteria met: The authorities have met all performance criteria under the ECF-supported program and achieved satisfactory progress on structural benchmarks.
• Structural reforms: Progress on structural reforms has been satisfactory, with two benchmarks fully met, one with a limited delay, and another significantly delayed.
• Fiscal discipline: The government has maintained fiscal discipline and used external financing on grant or concessional terms to avoid significant debt accumulation.
• Public investment: The program has successfully increased public investment, which is crucial for addressing the infrastructure deficit caused by the domestic crisis.

Structural Reforms

• Domestic arrears clearance: While progress has been made, it has been slower than expected due to the reluctance of many creditors to claim their debts. The authorities aim to complete this by the end of 2010.
• Bank restructuring: The government has initiated the process of financial restructuring in the banking sector, including recapitalization and the establishment of a nonperforming loan management mechanism.
• Privatization of banks: The privatization of four state-owned banks has faced delays due to the need to update the legal framework, but a new law was enacted in October 2010, and preparations are ongoing.
• Public financial management: Reforms in public financial management have been implemented, including the establishment of a single treasury account and improved financial controls.

Debt Strategy and HIPC Completion

• HIPC completion point: Togo is expected to reach the HIPC completion point in conjunction with the conclusion of the fifth review.
• Debt reduction: The HIPC initiative will provide substantial debt relief, improving Togo's debt position and boosting economic confidence.
• Medium-term debt strategy: The authorities intend to develop a medium-term debt strategy to consolidate the gains from HIPC completion.

Key Challenges

• Weak external environment: Export growth and investment inflows remain weak, constraining the pace of recovery.
• Slow domestic arrears clearance: Many eligible creditors have not come forward to claim their debts, which has slowed the process.
• Banking sector vulnerabilities: Despite recapitalization, the banking system still faces challenges such as high NPLs (14.6 percent of total gross loans) and low intermediation efficiency (loan to deposit ratio of 66 percent in 2009).

Recommendations and Outcomes

• Staff supports completion of the review: Based on the authorities' program performance and policy commitments, the IMF staff recommends the completion of the fifth review.
• Continued reform efforts: The government is expected to continue its reform efforts, including the privatization of banks and the implementation of a financial sector development strategy.
• Fiscal policy: The 2011 budget framework is ambitious and pro-investment, with increased public investment and revenue mobilization efforts.

Conclusion

Togo's economic recovery is gradual, supported by countercyclical fiscal policies and structural reforms. While the country has made significant progress in implementing its ECF-supported program, challenges remain in areas such as domestic arrears clearance, banking sector restructuring, and the external environment. The IMF staff recommends the completion of the fifth review, and the country is expected to benefit from substantial debt reduction under the HIPC initiative.