2014年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Tunisia_Fifth_Review_Under_the_Stand_85页_1mb

Tunisia: Fifth Review Under Stand-By Arrangement Summary

Core Content

This document outlines the fifth review of Tunisia's Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) under the International Monetary Fund (IMF), including the request for modification of performance criteria and rephasing of access. It includes the Staff Report, Press Release, Executive Director Statement, and related documents such as the Letter of Intent, Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies, and Technical Memorandum of Understanding. The report provides an overview of economic developments, program performance, and policy discussions up to December 2014.

Main Points

1. Context and Program Overview

• The SBA was approved on June 7, 2013, for 400% of quota (SDR 1.146 billion or $1.75 billion).
• As of December 2014, $1.1 billion (SDR 716.25 million) had been disbursed.
• Tunisia has successfully transitioned to democracy but faces challenges such as high unemployment, banking fragility, and external imbalances.

2. Economic Developments and Performance

• Growth: 2.1% y-o-y in the first half of 2014, driven by services and agriculture.
• Unemployment: Remains high at 15.2% overall, with youth unemployment at 30% and women at 21.5%.
• Inflation: Headline inflation dropped to 5.4% in October 2014, while core inflation rose slightly to 5.0%.
• Current Account Deficit: Widened to 7% of GDP for the first three quarters of 2014, due to increased energy and food imports.
• Reserves: Reached $5.0 billion, exceeding the adjusted program target due to a U.S.-guaranteed Eurobond issuance and reduced FX sales.
• Program Performance: Quantitative targets were met, but structural reforms lagged. Only two out of seven structural benchmarks were completed by end-November 2014.

3. Outlook and Risks

• Growth Projections: Revised down to 2.4% for 2014, and 3% for 2015, due to weak first-half performance and delayed reforms.
• Inflation: Expected to continue declining, reaching 5% in 2015 and 4% in the medium term.
• Current Account: Projected to narrow to 6.4% of GDP in 2015, with reserves increasing to $10.1 billion.
• Risks: Include regional security tensions, delays in forming a new coalition government, weak investor confidence, and further banking recapitalization delays. A prolonged European economic slowdown could also worsen external and fiscal imbalances.

4. Policy Discussions

• Short-Term Stabilization: Focus on fiscal consolidation, improved budget composition, and exchange rate flexibility.
• Structural Reforms: Needed to improve the business environment, reduce banking fragility, and support inclusive growth.
• Banking Sector: Recapitalization and restructuring of public banks are critical to financial stability and growth. Delays in these reforms remain a concern.
• Tax Reform: The National Tax Consultation delayed the approval of the tax reform strategy until December 2014. New tax measures will take effect in 2016.

Key Information

Fiscal Policy

• The 2014 fiscal target was overachieved, but spending composition was weak.
• The structural fiscal deficit for 2014 was 4.1% of GDP, down from 4.7%.
• The 2015 budget aims for further fiscal consolidation while preserving priority spending.
• Revenue increases in 2015 are limited to 0.3% of GDP, with energy subsidies expected to rise slightly.

Monetary Policy

• The NDA target was met comfortably.
• Credit to the private sector increased by 8.4% y-o-y in September 2014.
• FX market interventions led to depreciation, though recent appreciation against the euro occurred.

Structural Reforms

• Only two out of seven structural benchmarks were completed by end-November 2014.
• Delays in tax reform, banking restructuring, and investment code implementation hinder progress.
• The government is working to improve the investment climate and has committed to saving any net gains from lower oil prices.

External Financing

• Domestic financing in 2014 will compensate for delayed international aid.
• In 2015, Tunisia plans to close the financing gap by accessing international markets, including through sukuk issuances.
• Official financing in 2015 is expected to reach $2.8 billion, with contributions from IFIs, bilateral donors, and the Arab Monetary Fund.

Conclusion

The fifth review highlights the mixed performance of Tunisia's economic program, with success in short-term stabilization but delays in structural reforms. The focus remains on containing external imbalances, improving fiscal sustainability, and advancing banking sector reforms. The new government faces the challenge of continuing economic and social reforms while addressing ongoing risks to program implementation.