IMF国际货币组织全球-Islamic-Republic-of-Afghanistan_Fifth-Review-Under-the-Extended-Credit-Facility-Arrangement-and-Request-for-Modification-of-Performance-Criteria_83页_1mb

Summary of IMF Country Report No. 19/157: Islamic Republic of Afghanistan

Core Content

This document outlines the Fifth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement for the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, which was approved in 2016 and extended to 2019. The review was completed on June 3, 2019, allowing for the disbursement of SDR 4.5 million, bringing total disbursements under the ECF to SDR 27 million. The report includes a Staff Report, a Press Release, and a Statement by the Executive Director, and addresses key economic developments, performance criteria, and policy discussions.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Economic Outlook and Risks

• Growth Prospects: The 2019 baseline scenario forecasts a GDP growth of 3%, driven by a recovery in agriculture after the 2018 drought. However, this is subject to downside risks such as election-related disruptions, increased violence, and uncertainty in peace negotiations.
• Inflation: Inflation was low in 2018 at 0.8% (excluding food), and is expected to rise modestly to 3% in 2019. It is projected to remain under control in the medium term.
• Exchange Rate: The Afghan Afghani depreciated in 2018, with the largest decline in November. The rate remained broadly stable in 2019, with the central bank intervening to reduce volatility.
• External Position: Gross international reserves covered about 12 months of imports at end-2018, and the external current account deficit remained large, but manageable with aid inflows.

2. Program Implementation

• Performance Criteria: All end-December 2018 quantitative performance criteria were met, with five of seven structural benchmarks also achieved.
• Fiscal Performance: The 2018 overall budget surplus was 1.5% of GDP, with domestic revenues increasing by 13% and operating deficit excluding grants declining to 4.8% of GDP.
• Donor Support: Donors confirmed 2016 pledges and provided additional resources to address the drought. The government committed to finalizing a successor ECF arrangement by mid-2020.
• Reforms: Reforms in fiscal sustainability, anti-corruption, and financial sector restructuring have been ongoing and have received strong donor support.

3. Key Policy Discussions

• Fiscal Issues: The 2019 budget envisages a 0.8% deficit of GDP, with prudent spending policies and contingency plans for potential revenue shortfalls. The government is committed to maintaining social spending and reducing operational expenditures through freezing employment (except security services).
• Monetary and Financial Sector Policies: The central bank increased dollar sales to stabilize the exchange rate. The credit-to-GDP ratio remains low at 3.3%, and credit to the economy declined by 6% in 2018.
• Anti-Corruption Reforms: The government has made progress in implementing the anti-corruption agenda, including the establishment of the Anti-Corruption Justice Center and a VAT Implementation Team. Continued efforts are needed to improve transparency and accountability.
• Debt Sustainability: Public debt remains stable at around 6.8% of GDP in 2019. The government is advised to maintain a cautious fiscal policy and improve debt management capacity.

4. Structural Reforms

• VAT Introduction: The VAT is planned for end-2020, with the government forming a VAT Steering Committee and Implementation Team. Regulations and procedures for exemptions and refunds are to be issued.
• Single Large Taxpayers Office (LTO): The government is transitioning to a Single LTO and expects to complete this by end-October 2019.
• Budget Execution: The 2018 development budget execution reached 93%, with improved verification and scrutiny of spending. The government plans to enhance public investment management and use forward baseline estimates for project appraisal.
• State-Owned Corporations (SOCs) Oversight: A new SOCs law was adopted in 2018, granting the Ministry of Finance (MoF) a clear mandate to monitor and manage fiscal risks from SOCs. The government aims to develop an effective oversight and reporting system.
• Public Private Partnerships (PPPs): A PPP framework is being developed to improve infrastructure financing. A technical committee has been established to evaluate and prioritize projects before funding.

5. Future Prospects

• Long-Term Growth: The outlook for 2023 is 5% GDP growth, assuming continued reforms, sustained aid, and no significant security deterioration.
• Regional Integration: Improved regional trade integration and extractive industries are expected to support growth and job creation in the long term.
• Debt Management: The government is advised to rely on grants and concessional funding for public investment, with careful assessment of macro-fiscal implications.

6. Institutional and Governance Reforms

• Financial Stability Committee: Established to preserve financial stability.
• Anti-Corruption Justice Center: Activities are being published as part of the anti-corruption agenda.
• Public Asset Governance: A committee to review publicly funded projects is being set up.

Conclusion

The IMF Executive Board commended the strong program ownership by the Afghan government and the continued implementation of reforms. The Fifth Review of the ECF arrangement was completed successfully, with the release of SDR 4.5 million. The government remains committed to achieving macroeconomic stability, inclusive growth, and improved fiscal and financial governance. The IMF and international partners continue to support Afghanistan, especially through capacity development and donor coordination.

Selected Economic Indicators (2016–20)

Key Priorities

• Maintaining macroeconomic stability
• Continuing fiscal and financial sector reforms
• Strengthening anti-corruption measures
• Improving debt management
• Boosting financial inclusion
• Enhancing public investment management
• Sustaining donor support and aid inflows

The report emphasizes the importance of continued reform efforts, sustained donor engagement, and political stability in achieving long-term economic growth and development in Afghanistan.