2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Burkina_Faso_Fifth_Review_Under_the_Three_52页_1mb

Summary of Burkina Faso's Fifth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility

Core Content

This document outlines the fifth review under the three-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement with Burkina Faso, including the staff report and press release on the Executive Board discussion. The review was conducted in Ouagadougou between September 19 and October 3, 2012, and the staff report was completed on December 4, 2012. The review included a request to modify performance criteria, which the staff supported.

Main Points

1. Macroeconomic Performance and Outlook

• 2012 Growth Outlook: Improved from previous estimates, with growth projected at 8 percent due to abundant rainfall and a strong rebound in agricultural production.
• Inflation: Rose to 3.6 percent in August 2012, peaking at 4.6 percent in July, mainly due to food price increases and a one-off fuel price hike in March. Expected to decline to 2.0 percent by December 2012.
• Current Account Deficit: Projected to widen to 4.7 percent of GDP in 2012, primarily due to increased food and fuel imports. Expected to gradually narrow over the medium term.
• Fiscal Deficit: Slightly lower than anticipated at end-June, with the overall deficit at 3.2 percent of GDP (down from 3.5 percent of GDP). This was due to strong revenue performance and under-execution of spending.

2. Program Performance

• All end-June quantitative performance criteria and structural benchmarks were met.
• The end-March poverty-reducing spending target was narrowly missed.
• Revenue performance was driven by administrative reforms and increased gold production.
• Investment spending was below target in the first half of 2012 but is expected to pick up in the second half.

3. Fiscal Policy Revisions

• 2012 Revenue Projections: Revised upward to 16.6 percent of GDP, reflecting improved tax collection and increased gold revenues.
• 2012 Spending: Increased to 14.5 percent of GDP, mainly due to higher wage bill, interest payments, and transfers.
• 2013 Fiscal Targets: Projected at 16.9 percent of GDP for revenue and 2.6 percent of GDP for the deficit, assuming consolidation of crisis spending.
• The authorities requested modifications to end-December performance criteria and end-March 2013 structural benchmarks, which the staff supported.

4. Key Policy Discussions

• Fiscal Consolidation: The authorities aim to preserve resources for high-priority spending in 2013 by tightening fiscal targets.
• Fuel Pricing and SONABHY: The government plans to improve cost recovery for fuel and provide additional subsidies to SONABHY, the state-owned oil importer, due to losses from rising international prices.
• Public Wages: Measures to streamline the wage bill and reduce per diem abuse were implemented, including census and biometric registration.
• Revenue Reforms: Continued administrative reforms to improve tax collection, reduce fraud, and enhance revenue performance.
• Mining Code: A new draft mining code is expected to be considered by parliament, with potential changes to mining taxation and royalties.

5. Development Program (SCADD)

• The program focuses on achieving accelerated growth and sustainable development.
• Resources will be directed toward growth-enhancing investments, social protection, and measures to improve resilience to weather-related shocks.
• The program serves as a bridge to a possible successor Fund-supported program.

Key Information

• ECF Arrangement: Approved in June 2010 for SDR 46.15 million and augmented in June 2012 by SDR 36.12 million.
• Disbursements: The sixth tranche of SDR 18.49 million will be disbursed upon completion of the review.
• Reforms and Revenues: Significant reforms in tax administration and policy have boosted revenue collection, with a 3 percentage point increase in total revenue since 2009.
• Gold Production: Grew at an average of 170 percent annually from 2009–2011, with production expected to stabilize in 2012–2013 and accelerate from 2014 onward.
• SOFITEX Divestiture: Delayed implementation of the government's plan to divest from the state-owned cotton ginning company led to a request to modify the end-March structural benchmark.

Tables and Figures

• Table 1: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators (2011–2015)
• Table 2a and 2b: Consolidated Operations of the Central Government (2011–2015)
• Table 3: Monetary Survey (2011–2015)
• Table 4: Balance of Payments (2011–2015)
• Table 5: Quantitative Performance Criteria and Indicative Targets (2012)
• Table 6: Schedule of Disbursements Under the ECF Arrangement (2010–2013)
• Table 7: Structural Benchmarks (June 2012)
• Figure 1: Recent Economic Developments in Burkina Faso
• Figure 2: Real and External Developments (2005–2012)
• Figure 3: Fiscal Developments (2005–2012)

Boxes

• Box 1: Gold Production – Significant growth over the past five years, driven by the 2003 mining code and investment incentives.
• Box 2: Reforms to Increase Revenue Collection – Improved tax collection and administrative reforms since 2009.
• Box 3: Inclusive Growth: The Bagre Growth Pole Project – A development initiative aimed at fostering inclusive growth.
• Box 4: The Government's Stake in SOFITEX – Delays in divestiture led to a modification of performance criteria.

Conclusion

The fifth review of the ECF program confirmed strong macroeconomic performance in the first half of 2012, with the government successfully addressing food security and refugee needs. The staff supported the authorities' request to modify program targets and benchmarks, reflecting delays in SOFITEX divestiture and the need for more flexible fuel pricing mechanisms. The program is expected to serve as a bridge to a successor program, with a focus on fiscal sustainability, growth-enhancing investments, and improved resilience to external shocks.