2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Ghana_Fifth_Review_Under_the_Three_90页_1mb

Summary of Ghana's Fifth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility

Core Content

This document outlines the fifth review under the three-year arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) for Ghana, conducted in late 2011. It includes the staff report, a joint IMF/World Bank Debt Sustainability Analysis, a staff supplement, a press release, and a statement by the Executive Director for Ghana. The review focuses on assessing the implementation of the economic program, evaluating performance against set criteria, and discussing future policy directions.

Main Views and Key Information

Economic Performance and Stability

• Macroeconomic Stability: Ghana's economy has shown significant improvement since the start of the ECF in 2009. The inflation rate has declined to single digits, and international reserves have increased from $2 billion in 2008 to $5.4 billion by the end of 2011.
• Growth: Economic growth is projected to reach 13.5% in 2011 and over 8% in 2012, driven by the start of oil production.
• Fiscal Deficit: The fiscal deficit (after arrears clearance) was 5% of non-oil GDP in 2011, down from 9.75% in 2010. The government met all quantitative performance criteria and most indicative targets for end-June 2011, with only a minor shortfall in arrears clearance.
• Structural Reforms: Six out of the six benchmarks were met, but four were missed, including the accumulation of petroleum price subsidies and delays in implementing the integrated financial management information system (GIFMIS).

Fiscal Policy

• Wage Bill Management: The single spine salary structure led to a higher-than-budgeted wage bill in 2011 (by 1% of non-oil GDP), with deferred payments accumulating to GH¢1.25 billion. These will be cleared over a 10-month period.
• Fiscal Adjustments: The government plans to scale up infrastructure investment and boost revenues. The fiscal program remains appropriate, with the deficit expected to remain broadly stable in 2012.
• Revenue Performance: Non-oil tax revenue exceeded the program target, partly due to improved tax administration and higher gold share sales. Grants also contributed to revenue.

Energy Policies

• Petroleum Revenue Management Act (PRMA): Provides a legal framework for managing petroleum revenues and prices.
• Subsidies: Petroleum product subsidies reemerged in the second half of 2011, despite earlier efforts to reduce them.
• Gas Infrastructure: A key priority, with the gas pipeline project being critical to avoid environmental and operational risks from gas flaring. The World Bank recommends prioritizing this project and finalizing feasibility studies.

Monetary and Financial Policy

• Inflation Targeting: The Bank of Ghana successfully met its inflation target, aiming for 9% by year-end and further reduction in 2012.
• Financial Sector: The banking sector remains adequately capitalized and liquid, with reform priorities including reducing nonperforming loans and improving risk management practices.

Program Monitoring and Risks

• Performance Modification: The staff supports a modification of the nonconcessional borrowing limit to $3.4 billion to accommodate the MFA and other planned borrowings.
• Risks: External risks include potential weakening of commodity prices and foreign investment flows due to a global slowdown. Domestic risks include public spending pressures ahead of the 2012 elections.

Policy Discussions

Scaled-Up Investment

• Infrastructure Gaps: Addressing infrastructure gaps is a key priority for long-term growth. The GSGDA (Ghana Shared Growth and Development Agenda) outlines this as a central objective.
• Master Facility Agreement (MFA): A $3 billion agreement with the China Development Bank (CDB) was negotiated to finance critical infrastructure projects. The MFA includes two tranches with a grace period and nonconcessional terms.
• Feasibility Studies: The World Bank assessed the MFA and related projects, emphasizing the need for thorough feasibility studies, particularly for the gas infrastructure project, which has the potential for substantial returns.

Institutional Framework for Public Investment

• Nonconcessional Debt: The government agreed to establish principles for managing nonconcessional debt, including a clear disbursement profile and robust project assessments.
• Disbursement Plan: Nonconcessional public or publicly guaranteed debt drawdown is expected to be around $1.25 billion in 2012, with $750 million directly related to the MFA.

Staff Appraisal

• Recommendation: The staff recommends completing the fifth review, as the program is on track and the fiscal and external imbalances have been significantly reduced.
• Debt Sustainability: A revised debt sustainability analysis suggests that higher nonconcessional borrowing is feasible if fiscal targets are met. The staff supports the modification of the borrowing limit.

Key Documents

• Staff Report: Completed on November 29, 2011, and includes the analysis of economic developments and policies.
• Joint IMF/World Bank DSA: Assesses the financial viability and sustainability of the MFA and related projects.
• Letter of Intent and Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies: Outline the program implementation and future policy directions.
• Technical Memorandum of Understanding: Part of the ECF arrangement, outlining terms and conditions of the facility.

Conclusion

The review confirms that Ghana has made substantial progress in its economic program, with improved macroeconomic stability and growth. However, challenges remain, particularly in managing the wage bill and addressing public spending pressures. The staff supports the modification of the nonconcessional borrowing limit and emphasizes the need for thorough project assessments and a strong institutional framework for public investment.