2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Union_of_the_Comoros_Sixth_Review_Under_the_Three_48页_1mb

Summary of the Sixth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility for the Union of the Comoros

Core Content

The Union of the Comoros is undergoing its sixth and final review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement. The review includes a request for a waiver of a performance criterion related to net credit to the government. The IMF staff report, published on December 2, 2013, outlines the progress made in macroeconomic stabilization, fiscal consolidation, and structural reforms, while also highlighting ongoing challenges.

Main Points

1. Economic and Program Progress

• Comoros is in the last year of a multi-year economic and structural adjustment program.
• The program has received broad support from stakeholders, including the Fund, and continues to make progress.
• Macroeconomic developments in 2013 were largely in line with expectations, with real GDP growth projected at 3.5% and inflation below 3%.
• The fiscal primary balance deteriorated in the first half of 2013 due to lower-than-expected receipts from the Economic Citizenship Program (ECP), but the deficit was lower than programmed.

2. Performance Criteria and Waiver Request

• The authorities requested a waiver for the non-observance of the net credit to the government performance criterion at the end of June 2013.
• The staff supported this request and recommended the completion of the sixth and final review under the ECF arrangement.
• The delay in repaying a loan by the public oil importing company (SCH) contributed to the missed performance criterion.

3. Structural Reforms

• Structural benchmarks were largely met, including the establishment of an electronic network between customs offices and the implementation of new organizational frameworks for the Union and island governments.
• Progress was made on the assessment of cross-debts between the government, SCH, and EDA, though the assessment of EDA remains pending.
• The development of a medium-term strategy for public financial management (PFM) was delayed and requires further technical assistance.

4. Fiscal Policy and Reforms

• The 2014 budget law continues fiscal reforms initiated under the ECF and strengthens the sustainability of the fiscal position.
• Tax collection is expected to increase to around 13% of GDP, and current spending is targeted to be contained at 15.8% of GDP.
• The government has taken steps to improve revenue administration, including the operationalization of the General Tax and Property Administration (AGID) and the transfer of petroleum tax collection to customs.

5. Monetary and Financial Sector Outlook

• Credit to the private sector grew by 14% in the first nine months of 2013, while overall credit expanded by 21%.
• Broad money grew by about 3% due to a reduction in net foreign assets.
• The Central Bank of Comoros (BCC) has pursued reforms, including the adoption of a new banking law and the privatization of the Development Bank of Comoros (BDC).
• Concerns remain about the financial stability of the Société Nationale des Postes et des Services Financiers (SNPSF), which is the largest deposit collector in the system and has a negative capital position.

6. Debt Sustainability and IMF Resources

• The updated debt sustainability analysis confirms that Comoros remains at high risk of debt distress.
• The debt-to-export ratio is projected to rise from 65% in 2013 to above 100% by 2016, but including remittances, it remains below the threshold.
• The risk to IMF resources is manageable, with debt service payments to the Fund expected to peak at 0.4% of GDP in 2018 and 2019, and account for less than 50% of total projected debt service.

7. Poverty Reduction Strategy

• A third annual progress report on the Poverty Reduction Strategy (PRS) was prepared, showing some progress in education and health outcomes, though data limitations hinder a comprehensive analysis.
• The new PRS, covering 2015–2019, aims to integrate growth and development objectives into a unified framework, building on previous achievements.

Key Information

• Program Completion: The program is in its final year, with the sixth review being the last under the ECF.
• Fiscal Challenges: The government's fiscal position weakened in Q3 2013 due to increased capital spending and delays in ECP receipts.
• Structural Reforms: Progress has been made on customs integration, public administration reform, and energy sector restructuring.
• Financial Sector: The banking system is broadly sound, but SNPSF remains a key vulnerability. Microfinance institutions also face operational challenges.
• Debt Risk: Comoros is at high risk of debt distress, with the debt-to-export ratio expected to rise over time. However, the risk to IMF resources is considered manageable.
• Poverty Trends: Mixed results in poverty reduction, with conflicting indicators. Efforts to improve data collection and analysis are ongoing.

Conclusion

The Union of the Comoros has made notable progress in its economic and structural adjustment program, particularly in macroeconomic stabilization and revenue administration. However, challenges remain in fiscal discipline, debt sustainability, and the implementation of structural reforms. The authorities have requested a waiver for the missed performance criterion and have shown commitment to continuing reforms and improving governance. The IMF staff supports the completion of the sixth review and emphasizes the need for continued fiscal consolidation and coordination with development partners.