2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Kingdom_of_Lesotho_Fourth_Review_Under_the_Three_54页_1mb

Summary of the Fourth Review Under the ECF for Lesotho

Core Content

This document outlines the Fourth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) for the Kingdom of Lesotho, including a request for waiver of nonobservance of performance criteria and modification of performance criteria. The review was conducted in the context of economic challenges and external shocks, and the IMF Executive Board approved the continuation of the program with adjustments.

Main Points

Economic Overview

• Economic Growth: Lesotho's growth has weakened compared to earlier forecasts due to adverse exogenous shocks such as droughts and floods.
• GDP Growth: Estimated at 3–4% for 2011/12–2012/13, partly supported by mining investment and public infrastructure.
• Inflation: Peaked at 7.7% in December 2011 but has since declined.
• International Reserves: Fell to 3 1/3 months of import coverage by June 2012, but are expected to recover to this level by end-March 2013.

Fiscal Performance

• Fiscal Deficit: The non-SACU fiscal deficit (excluding capital projects) in 2011/12 was 23 1/3% of GDP, in line with program projections.
• Fiscal Surplus: Expected to reach 2% of GDP in 2012/13 due to improved SACU revenues and fiscal consolidation.
• Recurrent Expenditures: Projected to decline over the medium-term, with a target of 13 3/4% of GDP by 2016/17.
• Capital Expenditures: Remain significant, particularly due to infrastructure projects.

Performance Criteria and Structural Benchmarks

• Performance Criteria: All but one were met by end-March 2012. The ceiling on nonconcessional external debt was breached.
• Structural Benchmarks: Most were implemented on time, with a few delayed, including the comprehensive inventory of government accounts and the submission of the Industrial Licensing Bill.

Policy Recommendations

• Waiver and Modification: The staff supports the waiver of the missed performance criterion and modification of performance criteria.
• Fiscal Consolidation: Continued through improved revenue collection and expenditure management.
• Debt Management: Efforts to modernize the legal framework and reform the debt management system are underway.

Key Information

Economic Shocks

• Floods (2011): Reduced agricultural output and impacted SACU revenues.
• Drought (2012): Expected to reduce crop production by over 70%, leading to serious food security concerns.
• Global and Regional Conditions: Uncertainty in the global economy and South Africa could affect SACU revenues and Lesotho's exports.

Structural Reforms

• Industrial Licensing Bill: Submitted to Parliament to improve the licensing process and reduce delays.
• Companies Act 2011: Enacted to support private sector development.
• Revenue Administration: The Lesotho Revenue Authority (LRA) is undergoing restructuring to enhance efficiency and reduce tax evasion.
• Large Taxpayer Unit (LTU): Expected to be operational by end-2013 to better manage large taxpayers.

External Assistance

• Humanitarian Crisis: A national food crisis was declared in August 2012, with total costs estimated at M1.4 billion (6.7% of GDP).
• Donor Support: The UN has pledged US$6.2 million (about M50 million) to address the crisis, with further appeals expected.

Debt Sustainability

• Public Debt: Projected to rise temporarily to 40% of GDP due to infrastructure spending, but expected to decline to 36 1/2% by 2016/17.
• Debt Distress Risk: Remains moderate, with the PV of public debt relative to GDP and revenues expected to rise but remain below indicative thresholds.

Future Outlook

• Downside Risks: Continued economic uncertainty, potential drop in SACU revenues, and possible decline in diamond prices.
• Contingency Plans: The government is preparing for further fiscal adjustments if external conditions worsen, including reducing recurrent expenditures and postponing non-priority capital projects.
• Development Partners: External financing through grants and concessional loans is being sought to maintain international reserves and social spending.

Key Tables and Boxes

• Table 1: Selected Economic Indicators (2009/10–2016/17).
• Table 2: Fiscal Operations of the Central Government (2009/10–2016/17).
• Table 3: Commercial Bank Performance Ratios (2005–2012).
• Box 1: Channels of Possible Spillover from Global and South African Economy.
• Box 2: Enhancing Non-SACU Revenue: Reform Prospects.

Conclusion

The IMF staff supports the completion of the fourth review under the ECF, recognizing the progress made in fiscal consolidation and structural reforms. Continued implementation of sound policies and coordination with development partners is essential to mitigate risks and ensure long-term macroeconomic stability and growth in Lesotho.