2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Mali_Sixth_Review_Under_the_Three_73页_971kb

Summary of Mali's Sixth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility

Core Content

This document outlines the sixth review under the three-year arrangement of Mali's Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and includes a request for modification of performance criteria (PC) and augmentation of access. The review was conducted in Bamako (March 21–April 1, 2011) and continued in Washington (April 15–19, 2011). The staff report, prepared by the IMF African Department, was finalized on May 26, 2011, and recommends the completion of the review, modification of the PC for the seventh and last review, and an augmentation of access of SDR 25 million (27% of quota).

The augmentation is intended to cushion the impact of external shocks from the crises in Côte d'Ivoire and Libya, which are expected to worsen the balance of payments deficit in 2011. The IMF Executive Board is also presented with a statement by the Staff Representative and a statement by the Executive Director for Mali, along with a press release summarizing the board's discussion.

Main Points

1. Economic Performance and Program Implementation

• Mali's economy has remained on a robust growth trajectory with low inflation.
• Real GDP growth reached 5.8% in 2010, driven by agricultural growth (+16.1%) despite a sharp decline in gold production (-14.3%).
• Fiscal performance exceeded expectations in 2010, with a deficit of 1.2% of GDP, compared to a programmed deficit of 2.4%.
• Pending bills outstanding at end-2009 were cleared by August 2010, and those at end-2010 were slightly below the programmed amount.
• Balance of payments weakened in 2010, moving from a surplus in 2009 to a deficit of about $174 million.
• Overall balance of payments is expected to recover in 2012–2013 as gold production increases.

2. Fiscal Policy and Reforms

• A supplementary budget will be submitted to Parliament to address the impact of external shocks while maintaining the deficit target.
• The VAT credit refund will be increased to 0.6% of GDP to improve VAT system confidence.
• Current expenditure will rise by 0.4% of GDP due to additional transfers to the electricity company (EDM), migrant support, agricultural investments, and election preparations.
• Tax reforms will be prioritized, including streamlining the tax code, modernizing tax and customs administrations, and connecting them to the new accounting software in the Treasury.
• The PFM reform will focus on improving budget preparation, monitoring, and audit, and strengthening cash management.

3. Debt Sustainability

• The 2011 Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) increased the risk of debt distress from low to moderate due to volatility in gold exports.
• The government plans to finance external needs through grants and concessional loans.
• A database of domestic debt has been established to address weaknesses in debt recording.

4. Structural Reforms

• Financial stability and sectoral development are critical for growth and poverty reduction.
• The privatization of the state housing bank (BHM) is ongoing, with plans to sell it in 2012.
• Capital requirements for banks will be increased, and loan guarantee funds for SMEs will be established.
• Remittance mobilization initiatives and tightened supervision of microfinance institutions are being implemented.
• The privatization of CMDT is on track, with one investor selected from three bidders to purchase two of four regional subsidiaries.
• The electricity sector is being developed through tariff increases, grid connections to Côte d'Ivoire, and hydroelectric potential.

5. Program Modalities and Risks

• The last review will use revised performance criteria and unchanged structural benchmarks.
• The definition of non-concessional external debt is being changed from a residency-based to a currency-based criterion.
• The issuer of non-concessional debt is restricted to the state and largest state-owned companies (EDM and CMDT) to ensure debt sustainability.
• The ongoing privatization of CMDT and the electricity sector development strategy help mitigate fiscal risks from CFAF borrowing by state-owned companies.

Key Information

• ECF Arrangement: Approved in 2008 for SDR 27.99 million (30% of quota), with the fifth review completed in 2011.
• Augmentation Request: For SDR 25 million (27% of quota) to address external shocks.
• Performance Criteria (PC): The staff recommends modifying the PC for the seventh and last review.
• External Shocks: The crises in Côte d'Ivoire and Libya are expected to increase transport costs, reduce remittances, and lower exports and foreign direct investment, contributing to a balance of payments deficit.
• Gold Production: Expected to recover in 2012–2013, leading to a surplus in the balance of payments.
• VAT Reform: A pass-through mechanism for international oil prices to domestic prices was adopted in December 2010 and implemented in March 2011.
• Public Financial Management (PFM): The government will update the TOFE, transfer accounts to BCEAO, and incorporate WAEMU PFM directives into Malian law.
• Debt Sustainability: The DSA highlights the need for prudent debt management and monitoring.
• Program Risks: The revised PC aims to ensure fiscal sustainability and program coherence.

Conclusion

The IMF staff report highlights strong program implementation and favorable macroeconomic outcomes in 2010, despite external shocks. The recommendation for augmentation of access and modification of performance criteria reflects the need to address the balance of payments deficit and ensure continued fiscal stability. The government's commitment to tax reforms, PFM improvements, and sectoral development is critical for long-term economic growth and poverty reduction.