20231016-金源期货-锌周报_市场风险偏好降低_锌价震荡偏弱_7页_1mb

Zinc Weekly Market Analysis Summary

Date: 2023-10-16

Core View

Zinc prices are oscillating and trending weakly due to reduced market risk preference, supported by macroeconomic uncertainties and supply-demand dynamics.

Macro Factors

• Global risks include Middle East conflicts lowering risk appetite, while U.S. inflation data exceeds expectations, creating divergence in monetary policy expectations. Domestic economy stabilization with limited upward momentum.

Fundamentals

• Supply is expected to rise with potential production increases, but high inventory levels and temporary output drops from maintenance at some plants create downward pressure. Current low inventory supports prices modestly, but demand remains sluggish during October.

Key Data Highlights

• LME zinc inventory decreased, signaling possible supply redirection to domestic markets. Production forecasts indicate significant output growth in October, adding to supply pressures.

Strategy Recommendation

• Suggest selling zinc at elevated levels to capitalize on current weaknesses in the market.