深度报告-20240718-国盛证券-电网设备_特高压系列二_新能源消纳带来β_柔直升级+出海增强α_24页_2mb

报告摘要

UHV Grid Equipment Analysis

1. Overview

This report analyzes the demand and development trends for ultra-high voltage (UHV) transmission systems, emphasizing renewable energy integration, flexible DC technology, and international expansion. UHV projects are crucial for addressing China's growing energy needs, with a focus on sustainability and grid stability.

2. Demand Analysis

Current UHV projects include 6 AC and 13 DC initiatives not yet approved, with demand expected to persist until at least 2026.
The 455GW renewable energy base requires 33-41 transmission channels, with a current gap of 26-34 new channels. Projects like the "fourteenth five-year plan" have 15 planned channels, but only 2 are under construction.
Ongoing UHV demand is driven by the Need for energy redistribution from resource-rich western/northern regions to high-consumption eastern/middle regions.

3. Flexible DC Technology

Flexible DC (VSC-HVDC) is more adaptable than conventional DC (LCC-HVDC), offering better grid stability, especially in areas with weak AC systems and high renewable penetration.
Applications include UHV projects (e.g.,甘肃-浙江, 蒙西-京津冀), offshore wind farms (e.g., Yangjiang Wind Farms with >12GW capacity), and back-to-back connections (e.g., Guangzhou-Dongguan projects).
Advantages include full controllability, no commutation failure risk, and economic viability for long-distance power transmission. The valve cost is 40-50% of the converter equipment value.

4. International Expansion

China is exporting UHV technology, serving as a key "China brand," with projects in Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Chile.
In 2024, Saudi Arabia has awarded flexible DC converter valve contracts, and China's technology is recognized globally, with efforts to enhance standards development.

5. Investment Outlook

Recommended companies include State Grid Corporation of China, related equipment manufacturers (e.g., State Grid Corporation of China subsidiaries).
Potential risks include unmet renewable energy targets, data inaccuracies, increased market competition, and policy adjustments. UHV earnings may be delayed due to project execution inefficiencies.

6. Future Outlook

UHV demand is expected to grow through continuous renewable energy developments and grid modernization, with flexible DC playing a vital role in enhancing international competitiveness and global market expansion.

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